Pairwise course analysis
Governor's 5K Coursevs.Groton School
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Groton School runs faster
-3.69%
Roughly 44.3 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
247
Deep evidence
Median difference
-3.84%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-3.69%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.55%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Groton School fasterEvenGroton School slower
Confidence interval
-4.40% to -3.34%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Governor's 5K Course | Groton School | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Catalano | 2024 | 32:12.001 race | 24:58.001 race | -22.46% |
| Eleanor Caspersen | 2025 | 36:39.001 race | 30:01.002 races | -18.10% |
| Alex Hallstrom | 2019 | 23:07.003 races | 19:24.001 race | -16.08% |
| Connor Bragg | 2024 | 27:36.001 race | 23:56.001 race | -13.29% |
| Stephanie Mo | 2025 | 31:58.001 race | 27:46.002 races | -13.14% |
| Selina Liu | 2019 | 28:37.003 races | 25:07.001 race | -12.23% |
| Katalin (Kata) Clark | 2021 | 22:21.001 race | 19:39.001 race | -12.08% |
| Adalynne Mertz | 2025 | 32:24.001 race | 28:32.002 races | -11.93% |
| Victor Fat | 2025 | 23:10.001 race | 20:26.002 races | -11.80% |
| Maxwell Rothman | 2024 | 25:20.001 race | 22:31.001 race | -11.12% |
| Alexa Adams | 2024 | 25:35.001 race | 22:50.001 race | -10.75% |
| Rebecca Wu | 2025 | 26:51.001 race | 24:02.001 race | -10.49% |
| David Yu | 2025 | 24:44.001 race | 22:12.002 races | -10.24% |
| Erin Green | 2022 | 27:46.001 race | 24:58.001 race | -10.08% |
| Samuel Allado | 2025 | 24:42.001 race | 22:17.002 races | -9.78% |
| Mateo Garciarramos Petr | 2025 | 21:45.001 race | 19:39.002 races | -9.66% |
| R. Murphy | 2024 | 27:54.001 race | 25:15.001 race | -9.50% |
| Adam Ewing | 2019 | 22:30.001 race | 20:22.001 race | -9.48% |
| Charlie Gavin | 2023 | 19:21.001 race | 17:32.001 race | -9.39% |
| Aiden English | 2019 | 24:04.002 races | 21:55.001 race | -8.93% |
| Grigory Menshikov | 2019 | 24:48.003 races | 22:36.001 race | -8.87% |
| Sydney Nelson | 2025 | 23:40.001 race | 21:36.002 races | -8.73% |
| Michael Bobo | 2021 | 21:22.001 race | 19:32.001 race | -8.58% |
| John Brice | 2023 | 21:07.001 race | 19:22.001 race | -8.29% |
| Arden Sartori | 2024 | 24:28.001 race | 22:27.001 race | -8.24% |
| Ryder Woodworth | 2025 | 20:46.001 race | 19:04.002 races | -8.19% |
| Bibi Miotke | 2025 | 29:35.001 race | 27:10.002 races | -8.17% |
| Kaitie Donahue | 2024 | 26:57.001 race | 24:46.001 race | -8.10% |
| Emma Xi | 2024 | 26:23.001 race | 24:15.001 race | -8.09% |
| Charlie Gavin | 2022 | 19:54.001 race | 18:21.001 race | -7.79% |
| Lucy Rainer | 2019 | 27:32.002 races | 25:24.001 race | -7.75% |
| Ayo Pickering | 2025 | 30:39.001 race | 28:18.002 races | -7.67% |
| Ryan King | 2019 | 24:07.003 races | 22:17.001 race | -7.60% |
| Evan Schneider | 2023 | 23:06.001 race | 21:21.001 race | -7.58% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2023 | 29:15.001 race | 27:05.001 race | -7.41% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2024 | 19:40.001 race | 18:13.001 race | -7.37% |
| Ethan Chang | 2019 | 26:23.001 race | 24:27.001 race | -7.33% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2024 | 27:04.001 race | 25:09.001 race | -7.08% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2019 | 26:09.002 races | 24:18.001 race | -7.07% |
| Sebastian Keleher | 2023 | 24:02.001 race | 22:20.001 race | -7.07% |
| Conor Mannion | 2022 | 23:37.001 race | 22:00.001 race | -6.85% |
| Kelly Zhao | 2024 | 22:43.001 race | 21:10.002 races | -6.82% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2022 | 29:21.001 race | 27:21.001 race | -6.81% |
| Zoe Wilmerding | 2021 | 26:39.001 race | 24:51.001 race | -6.75% |
| Erin Green | 2023 | 28:32.001 race | 26:38.001 race | -6.66% |
| Shrusti Mandera | 2025 | 31:51.001 race | 29:44.001 race | -6.65% |
| Ashton Vertus | 2025 | 24:21.001 race | 22:44.001 race | -6.64% |
| Eliza Barker | 2021 | 26:38.001 race | 24:52.001 race | -6.63% |
| Gabriela Coates | 2025 | 24:02.001 race | 22:27.002 races | -6.59% |
| Madeline Pike | 2022 | 25:12.001 race | 23:33.001 race | -6.55% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2019 | 21:39.002 races | 20:14.001 race | -6.54% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2023 | 22:51.001 race | 21:22.001 race | -6.49% |
| Howard Huang | 2021 | 22:41.001 race | 21:13.001 race | -6.47% |
| Hollen Knoell | 2019 | 24:15.003 races | 22:41.001 race | -6.46% |
| Nathan Pappas | 2021 | 22:29.001 race | 21:02.001 race | -6.45% |
| Lily Heaton | 2024 | 28:20.001 race | 26:31.001 race | -6.41% |
| Eric Berard | 2019 | 19:33.003 races | 18:18.001 race | -6.39% |
| Liv Pasquale | 2019 | 30:55.002 races | 28:57.001 race | -6.36% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2019 | 24:14.003 races | 22:42.001 race | -6.33% |
| Renee Martell | 2024 | 28:34.001 race | 26:46.001 race | -6.30% |
| John Brice | 2024 | 22:02.001 race | 20:39.001 race | -6.28% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2023 | 21:08.001 race | 19:50.001 race | -6.15% |
| Felix Deschenes | 2025 | 20:41.001 race | 19:25.002 races | -6.12% |
| Phoebe Lu | 2019 | 26:33.001 race | 24:56.001 race | -6.09% |
| Chloe Catalano | 2023 | 28:34.001 race | 26:50.001 race | -6.07% |
| Philip Holland | 2025 | 19:03.001 race | 17:54.002 races | -6.04% |
| Evan Salhanick | 2021 | 21:00.001 race | 19:45.001 race | -5.95% |
| Nat Holland | 2024 | 26:20.001 race | 24:46.002 races | -5.95% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2022 | 23:35.001 race | 22:11.001 race | -5.94% |
| Jack Gilbert | 2019 | 21:11.003 races | 19:59.001 race | -5.66% |
| Rosie Qin | 2019 | 26:42.001 race | 25:12.001 race | -5.62% |
| Kevin Kerrigan | 2025 | 22:48.001 race | 21:32.002 races | -5.56% |
| Ceres Moraitis | 2025 | 20:52.001 race | 19:44.002 races | -5.43% |
| Alaina Millian | 2024 | 27:25.001 race | 25:56.001 race | -5.41% |
| Maanasi Chintamani | 2019 | 26:34.001 race | 25:08.001 race | -5.40% |
| Megan Corry | 2023 | 26:42.001 race | 25:16.001 race | -5.37% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2024 | 17:29.001 race | 16:33.002 races | -5.34% |
| Tristan Parmentier | 2021 | 20:18.001 race | 19:13.001 race | -5.34% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2023 | 27:48.001 race | 26:19.001 race | -5.34% |
| Shreya Jain | 2019 | 29:03.001 race | 27:30.001 race | -5.34% |
| Cooper Austen | 2019 | 17:52.001 race | 16:55.001 race | -5.32% |
| Grace Hu | 2019 | 22:29.001 race | 21:18.001 race | -5.26% |
| Mia Peng | 2019 | 28:51.001 race | 27:20.001 race | -5.26% |
| Katie Wipf | 2022 | 23:14.001 race | 22:01.001 race | -5.24% |
| Zachary Lim | 2024 | 25:42.001 race | 24:22.002 races | -5.19% |
| Carver Porter | 2021 | 21:40.001 race | 20:33.001 race | -5.15% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2022 | 25:57.001 race | 24:37.001 race | -5.14% |
| Elizabeth Gatto | 2019 | 26:59.001 race | 25:36.001 race | -5.13% |
| Stephen Warming | 2021 | 20:30.001 race | 19:27.001 race | -5.12% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2022 | 23:48.001 race | 22:35.001 race | -5.11% |
| Zan Danoff | 2019 | 19:39.001 race | 18:39.001 race | -5.09% |
| Kelly Zhao | 2025 | 21:39.001 race | 20:33.002 races | -5.08% |
| Alexandra Rukstalis | 2024 | 28:23.001 race | 26:57.001 race | -5.05% |
| Gabby Walsh | 2019 | 21:31.001 race | 20:26.001 race | -5.03% |
| Isabelle Stewart | 2019 | 26:44.003 races | 25:24.001 race | -4.99% |
| Jeremy Eaton | 2021 | 21:20.001 race | 20:18.001 race | -4.84% |
| Ruby Massengale | 2019 | 29:00.001 race | 27:39.001 race | -4.66% |
| Samara Gorton | 2025 | 25:02.001 race | 23:53.002 races | -4.59% |
| Grace Luettgen | 2019 | 25:33.001 race | 24:23.001 race | -4.57% |
| Ava Marinaro | 2024 | 28:18.002 races | 27:02.001 race | -4.48% |
| Arec Keomurjian | 2021 | 19:28.001 race | 18:36.001 race | -4.45% |
| George Taggart | 2024 | 20:59.001 race | 20:04.002 races | -4.37% |
| Alex Hass | 2019 | 20:59.002 races | 20:04.001 race | -4.37% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2022 | 23:11.001 race | 22:11.001 race | -4.31% |
| Quinn Anderson-Song | 2019 | 19:20.003 races | 18:30.001 race | -4.31% |
| Talia Jachimowicz | 2019 | 24:49.003 races | 23:45.001 race | -4.30% |
| Sophie Kopp-Hills | 2024 | 32:15.001 race | 30:52.002 races | -4.29% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2023 | 20:13.001 race | 19:21.001 race | -4.29% |
| Annabelle Rogers | 2019 | 22:33.001 race | 21:35.001 race | -4.29% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 19:37.001 race | 18:47.001 race | -4.25% |
| David Carter | 2021 | 20:29.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -4.15% |
| Liv Ding | 2024 | 27:50.001 race | 26:41.002 races | -4.13% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2024 | 20:19.001 race | 19:29.001 race | -4.10% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 19:09.001 race | 18:22.001 race | -4.09% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2022 | 26:05.001 race | 25:01.001 race | -4.09% |
| Sofia FloresQuero Llama | 2025 | 22:37.001 race | 21:42.002 races | -4.05% |
| Collin Graham | 2025 | 19:46.001 race | 18:58.001 race | -4.05% |
| Collin Graham | 2024 | 22:05.001 race | 21:12.002 races | -4.00% |
| Cole Bourgeois | 2019 | 20:02.002 races | 19:14.001 race | -3.99% |
| Mariam Craig | 2019 | 23:24.001 race | 22:28.001 race | -3.99% |
| Raymond Li | 2019 | 23:11.001 race | 22:16.001 race | -3.95% |
| Jillian Robertson | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 21:42.001 race | -3.91% |
| Carter Lightburn | 2024 | 19:50.001 race | 19:04.002 races | -3.87% |
| William Trautz | 2021 | 18:14.001 race | 17:32.001 race | -3.84% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2024 | 18:47.001 race | 18:04.001 race | -3.82% |
| Chase Bellamy | 2024 | 19:44.001 race | 18:59.002 races | -3.80% |
| Steven Silvers | 2024 | 19:18.001 race | 18:34.001 race | -3.80% |
| Owen Spring | 2024 | 23:47.001 race | 22:53.001 race | -3.78% |
| Zebediah Stewart | 2021 | 19:00.001 race | 18:17.001 race | -3.77% |
| Josie Silk | 2019 | 23:10.001 race | 22:18.001 race | -3.74% |
| Clare LaMattina | 2023 | 26:37.001 race | 25:39.001 race | -3.63% |
| Izzy Hall | 2024 | 25:03.001 race | 24:09.002 races | -3.59% |
| Sean McLaughlin | 2019 | 20:55.001 race | 20:10.001 race | -3.59% |
| Ben Luo | 2019 | 22:55.001 race | 22:06.001 race | -3.56% |
| Meena Menon | 2019 | 22:29.001 race | 21:41.001 race | -3.56% |
| David Latham | 2019 | 17:53.001 race | 17:15.001 race | -3.54% |
| Adyson Duval | 2024 | 24:05.002 races | 23:14.001 race | -3.53% |
| Stone Shen | 2019 | 20:48.001 race | 20:04.001 race | -3.53% |
| Andy Seals | 2021 | 19:57.001 race | 19:16.001 race | -3.43% |
| George Taggart | 2025 | 20:28.001 race | 19:46.002 races | -3.42% |
| Alene Fernandes | 2019 | 22:26.001 race | 21:40.001 race | -3.42% |
| Richard (Ricky) Li | 2019 | 22:56.001 race | 22:09.001 race | -3.42% |
| Lindy Zhang | 2024 | 22:58.001 race | 22:12.002 races | -3.34% |
| Henry Seilheimer | 2024 | 19:29.001 race | 18:50.002 races | -3.34% |
| Jessica Choe | 2019 | 27:43.003 races | 26:48.002 races | -3.31% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2023 | 19:43.001 race | 19:04.001 race | -3.30% |
| Colleen Leary | 2022 | 23:59.001 race | 23:12.001 race | -3.27% |
| Pauline McAndrew | 2024 | 28:06.001 race | 27:11.001 race | -3.26% |
| Peter Favero | 2019 | 19:17.001 race | 18:40.001 race | -3.20% |
| Evan Schneider | 2024 | 20:20.001 race | 19:41.001 race | -3.20% |
| Leo Lin | 2019 | 21:55.003 races | 21:13.001 race | -3.19% |
| Liam Warren | 2024 | 18:48.001 race | 18:12.002 races | -3.19% |
| Ceres Moraitis | 2024 | 21:12.001 race | 20:32.002 races | -3.14% |
| Xander Starobin | 2019 | 26:37.001 race | 25:47.001 race | -3.13% |
| Sarah Ku | 2024 | 27:33.001 race | 26:42.002 races | -3.09% |
| Thaddaeus Flatz-Ehrfeld | 2024 | 19:30.001 race | 18:54.002 races | -3.08% |
| Caleb Krueger | 2019 | 19:19.001 race | 18:44.001 race | -3.02% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2022 | 21:01.001 race | 20:23.001 race | -3.01% |
| Jaden Smith | 2023 | 19:59.001 race | 19:23.001 race | -3.00% |
| John Brice | 2022 | 21:48.001 race | 21:09.001 race | -2.98% |
| Matt Wing | 2019 | 18:28.001 race | 17:57.001 race | -2.80% |
| Jake Devries | 2023 | 22:08.001 race | 21:32.001 race | -2.71% |
| Vedant Deokar | 2019 | 22:23.001 race | 21:47.001 race | -2.68% |
| Caroline Creasy | 2024 | 23:55.001 race | 23:18.002 races | -2.58% |
| Caitlyn Hsu | 2024 | 26:01.001 race | 25:21.001 race | -2.56% |
| Evan Schneider | 2022 | 22:22.001 race | 21:48.001 race | -2.53% |
| Julian Dai | 2019 | 24:36.001 race | 23:59.001 race | -2.51% |
| Henry Horvath | 2019 | 21:37.001 race | 21:05.001 race | -2.47% |
| Bradley Weldon | 2021 | 20:27.001 race | 19:57.001 race | -2.44% |
| Rory Christopher | 2025 | 20:38.001 race | 20:08.002 races | -2.42% |
| Tori Duckworth | 2021 | 23:33.001 race | 22:59.001 race | -2.41% |
| Monica Mukherjee | 2021 | 22:41.001 race | 22:09.001 race | -2.35% |
| Amelia Stevens | 2019 | 24:50.001 race | 24:16.001 race | -2.28% |
| Lauren Puglia | 2021 | 22:40.001 race | 22:09.001 race | -2.28% |
| Samara Gorton | 2024 | 25:08.001 race | 24:34.002 races | -2.25% |
| Phoebe Cogan | 2024 | 22:14.002 races | 21:44.001 race | -2.25% |
| Michael Cheng | 2019 | 23:00.001 race | 22:29.001 race | -2.25% |
| Evan Wirth | 2021 | 19:31.001 race | 19:05.001 race | -2.22% |
| Gabriela Gil | 2024 | 23:48.001 race | 23:17.002 races | -2.17% |
| Penelope Tregoe | 2024 | 24:57.001 race | 24:25.001 race | -2.14% |
| Cannon Caspar | 2019 | 18:47.001 race | 18:23.001 race | -2.13% |
| Lorenzo Johnson | 2024 | 19:25.002 races | 19:02.001 race | -1.97% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2021 | 20:00.001 race | 19:37.001 race | -1.92% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2021 | 22:00.001 race | 21:35.001 race | -1.89% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2022 | 24:46.001 race | 24:18.001 race | -1.88% |
| Maya Sidhu | 2019 | 25:10.001 race | 24:42.001 race | -1.85% |
| Cole JV Stewart | 2019 | 26:09.001 race | 25:40.001 race | -1.85% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2022 | 22:45.001 race | 22:21.001 race | -1.76% |
| Zach Lonberg | 2019 | 24:04.003 races | 23:40.001 race | -1.66% |
| Adyson Duval | 2021 | 28:14.001 race | 27:46.001 race | -1.65% |
| Lindsey Bennett | 2023 | 23:53.001 race | 23:30.001 race | -1.61% |
| Andrew Harris | 2019 | 18:11.001 race | 17:54.001 race | -1.56% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2022 | 22:34.001 race | 22:13.001 race | -1.55% |
| Justine Lam | 2019 | 28:57.001 race | 28:35.001 race | -1.27% |
| Ashton Vertus | 2024 | 29:04.001 race | 28:42.002 races | -1.26% |
| Hyuntae Choi | 2019 | 23:17.001 race | 23:01.001 race | -1.15% |
| Ty Wilschut | 2019 | 26:45.001 race | 26:27.001 race | -1.12% |
| Connor Keleher | 2024 | 23:57.001 race | 23:41.001 race | -1.11% |
| Shawna Liu | 2021 | 25:45.001 race | 25:28.001 race | -1.10% |
| David Yu | 2024 | 23:52.001 race | 23:37.002 races | -1.05% |
| Gabriela Coates | 2024 | 25:33.001 race | 25:19.002 races | -0.91% |
| James Donahue | 2021 | 15:54.001 race | 15:46.001 race | -0.84% |
| Tim Cassidy | 2019 | 24:54.001 race | 24:42.001 race | -0.80% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2022 | 30:04.001 race | 29:50.001 race | -0.78% |
| Katie Riley | 2019 | 28:11.001 race | 27:58.001 race | -0.77% |
| Sydney Nelson | 2024 | 25:26.001 race | 25:18.002 races | -0.52% |
| Alexa Adams | 2022 | 24:41.001 race | 24:35.001 race | -0.41% |
| Stephanie Mo | 2024 | 28:07.001 race | 28:01.002 races | -0.36% |
| Ken Suzuki | 2021 | 19:44.001 race | 19:40.001 race | -0.34% |
| Jameso Flaherty-Clapham | 2022 | 29:13.001 race | 29:11.001 race | -0.11% |
| James Lyman | 2021 | 20:54.001 race | 20:55.001 race | +0.08% |
| Colleen Leary | 2023 | 25:07.001 race | 25:09.001 race | +0.13% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2024 | 19:53.001 race | 19:56.001 race | +0.25% |
| Oliver Massey | 2024 | 20:57.001 race | 21:02.001 race | +0.40% |
| Alex Tobias | 2021 | 17:42.001 race | 17:47.001 race | +0.47% |
| Andy Chefetz | 2019 | 27:01.001 race | 27:09.001 race | +0.49% |
| Adalynne Mertz | 2024 | 33:15.001 race | 33:33.002 races | +0.90% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2024 | 22:47.001 race | 23:01.001 race | +1.02% |
| Maggie Xu | 2021 | 29:57.001 race | 30:16.001 race | +1.06% |
| Tatum Glynn | 2024 | 24:00.001 race | 24:19.001 race | +1.32% |
| Sam Poulin | 2021 | 18:42.001 race | 18:57.001 race | +1.34% |
| James Skowronek | 2024 | 22:25.002 races | 22:43.001 race | +1.34% |
| Justin Li | 2019 | 24:11.001 race | 24:33.001 race | +1.52% |
| Lakshmi Bogelli | 2019 | 30:19.002 races | 30:48.001 race | +1.59% |
| James Carroll | 2024 | 21:56.002 races | 22:20.001 race | +1.82% |
| Tyler Almaraz | 2024 | 28:18.001 race | 28:54.001 race | +2.12% |
| Caroline Quirk | 2021 | 29:06.002 races | 29:46.001 race | +2.29% |
| Eric Liang | 2024 | 23:20.001 race | 23:54.002 races | +2.43% |
| Nicolas Huaco | 2021 | 18:23.001 race | 18:50.001 race | +2.45% |
| Paris Liston | 2021 | 20:39.001 race | 21:11.001 race | +2.58% |
| Sofia Guisti | 2024 | 31:23.001 race | 32:24.002 races | +3.24% |
| Ayo Pickering | 2024 | 31:23.001 race | 32:25.002 races | +3.29% |
| Cameron Gonzalez | 2021 | 17:48.001 race | 18:26.001 race | +3.56% |
| Kevin Xie | 2024 | 28:01.001 race | 29:03.001 race | +3.69% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2021 | 24:46.001 race | 25:41.001 race | +3.70% |
| Alder Hurley | 2024 | 32:43.001 race | 34:02.001 race | +4.02% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2022 | 30:05.001 race | 31:21.001 race | +4.21% |
| Samson Oblak | 2024 | 21:55.002 races | 22:51.001 race | +4.26% |
| Teddy Hwang | 2019 | 30:06.002 races | 31:23.001 race | +4.26% |
| Victor Xu | 2021 | 21:33.001 race | 22:30.001 race | +4.41% |
| Armaun Dehpanah | 2024 | 19:30.002 races | 20:38.001 race | +5.81% |
| Evi Robb | 2021 | 23:44.001 race | 25:08.001 race | +5.90% |
| Eric Lin | 2019 | 26:54.002 races | 28:32.001 race | +6.07% |
| Luke Ferrone | 2024 | 24:41.002 races | 26:30.001 race | +7.36% |
| Jack Li | 2024 | 24:39.002 races | 26:41.001 race | +8.25% |
| Harrison O'Connor | 2024 | 23:51.001 race | 26:10.001 race | +9.71% |
| Greg JV Linton | 2019 | 26:52.001 race | 29:32.001 race | +9.93% |