Pairwise course analysis
Governor's 5K Coursevs.NEPSTA Championship Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
NEPSTA Championship Course runs faster
-7.33%
Roughly 1:28 faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
18
Developing evidence
Median difference
-6.85%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-7.33%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.99%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-8.67% to -6.34%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Governor's 5K Course | NEPSTA Championship Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2023 | 19:09.001 race | 16:42.001 race | -12.79% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2023 | 20:35.001 race | 18:11.001 race | -11.66% |
| Ethan Xie | 2023 | 23:04.001 race | 20:36.001 race | -10.69% |
| Alexander Behn | 2023 | 20:20.001 race | 18:20.001 race | -9.84% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2023 | 18:47.001 race | 17:05.001 race | -9.05% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2023 | 20:41.001 race | 18:50.001 race | -8.94% |
| William Trautz | 2023 | 17:50.001 race | 16:22.001 race | -8.22% |
| Angus Harrison | 2023 | 20:00.001 race | 18:36.001 race | -7.00% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2023 | 21:27.001 race | 19:57.001 race | -6.99% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2023 | 18:24.001 race | 17:10.001 race | -6.70% |
| Carver Porter | 2023 | 20:22.001 race | 19:08.001 race | -6.06% |
| Eita Fuse | 2023 | 18:32.001 race | 17:26.001 race | -5.94% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2023 | 21:41.001 race | 20:26.001 race | -5.76% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2023 | 19:37.001 race | 18:35.001 race | -5.27% |
| George Carroll | 2023 | 20:59.001 race | 19:56.001 race | -5.00% |
| Maksim Roman | 2023 | 19:24.001 race | 18:26.001 race | -4.98% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2023 | 18:45.001 race | 17:49.001 race | -4.98% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2023 | 18:57.001 race | 18:03.001 race | -4.75% |