Pairwise course analysis
Groton Schoolvs.Great Brook Farm 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Great Brook Farm 5K runs slower
+1.05%
Roughly 12.7 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
14
Limited evidence
Median difference
-0.19%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.05%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.49%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-2.99% to +1.32%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Groton School | Great Brook Farm 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Armstead | 2021 | 38:46.001 race | 34:18.001 race | -11.52% |
| Alex Tobias | 2021 | 17:47.001 race | 16:48.001 race | -5.53% |
| Adyson Duval | 2021 | 27:46.001 race | 27:05.001 race | -2.46% |
| Monica Mukherjee | 2021 | 22:09.001 race | 21:37.001 race | -2.41% |
| Andy Seals | 2021 | 19:16.001 race | 18:58.001 race | -1.56% |
| Brandon Spector-Townsend | 2021 | 20:20.001 race | 20:10.001 race | -0.82% |
| Lauren Puglia | 2021 | 22:09.001 race | 22:04.001 race | -0.38% |
| Peyton Dahmen | 2021 | 22:17.001 race | 22:17.001 race | 0.00% |
| James Lyman | 2021 | 20:55.001 race | 20:58.001 race | +0.24% |
| Eliza Barker | 2021 | 24:52.001 race | 25:21.001 race | +1.94% |
| Zoe Wilmerding | 2021 | 24:51.001 race | 25:25.001 race | +2.28% |
| Zebediah Stewart | 2021 | 18:17.001 race | 18:45.001 race | +2.55% |
| Katalin (Kata) Clark | 2021 | 19:39.001 race | 20:17.001 race | +3.22% |
| Evan Salhanick | 2021 | 19:45.001 race | 20:26.001 race | +3.46% |