Pairwise course analysis
Groton Schoolvs.LA 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
LA 5K Course runs slower
+4.31%
Roughly 51.7 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
57
Strong evidence
Median difference
+3.80%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+4.31%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.48%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
LA 5K Course fasterEvenLA 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+1.88% to +5.51%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Groton School | LA 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Shan | 2019 | 27:39.001 race | 22:00.002 races | -20.43% |
| Joo-Ran Schaerer | 2019 | 33:36.001 race | 29:19.201 race | -12.74% |
| Kiet Nguyen | 2019 | 26:52.001 race | 24:48.002 races | -7.69% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 20:58.001 race | 19:30.002 races | -7.00% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 21:58.001 race | 21:04.002 races | -4.10% |
| Keira Amick | 2025 | 27:07.001 race | 26:02.001 race | -4.00% |
| Violet Safari | 2025 | 24:46.001 race | 23:56.001 race | -3.36% |
| Arhant Ghanta | 2019 | 24:41.001 race | 24:06.002 races | -2.36% |
| Jess Fatzinger | 2019 | 28:19.001 race | 27:54.002 races | -1.47% |
| Paris Liston | 2021 | 21:11.001 race | 20:57.001 race | -1.10% |
| Eloise Finley | 2025 | 24:51.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +0.13% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 19:39.001 race | 19:44.002 races | +0.42% |
| Nicole Fallon | 2025 | 22:40.001 race | 22:49.001 race | +0.66% |
| Alana Brownstein | 2025 | 25:19.001 race | 25:34.001 race | +0.99% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 16:57.001 race | 17:08.002 races | +1.08% |
| Lexi Hinck | 2025 | 25:20.001 race | 25:38.001 race | +1.18% |
| Charles Zhang | 2022 | 25:55.001 race | 26:14.002 races | +1.22% |
| Rhaya Nestor | 2025 | 24:31.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +1.50% |
| Matthew Smith | 2022 | 21:33.001 race | 21:59.002 races | +2.01% |
| Cameron Regonini | 2025 | 21:26.001 race | 21:52.001 race | +2.02% |
| Jack Carolan | 2019 | 27:47.001 race | 28:21.002 races | +2.04% |
| Sebastian Sepulveda | 2019 | 22:00.001 race | 22:28.002 races | +2.12% |
| Kate Tarr | 2025 | 20:40.001 race | 21:16.001 race | +2.90% |
| Shaniece Nugent | 2019 | 25:49.001 race | 26:38.002 races | +3.16% |
| Lucas Miller | 2025 | 18:17.001 race | 18:52.001 race | +3.19% |
| Myles McCusker | 2025 | 20:01.001 race | 20:41.001 race | +3.33% |
| Caleb Stokes | 2025 | 22:41.001 race | 23:27.001 race | +3.38% |
| Alexander Kirby | 2022 | 20:44.001 race | 21:29.002 races | +3.62% |
| Quentin DeFreitas | 2022 | 23:40.001 race | 24:34.002 races | +3.80% |
| Lucas Miller | 2022 | 20:11.001 race | 21:04.002 races | +4.38% |
| Patrick Riley | 2019 | 23:54.001 race | 24:57.002 races | +4.39% |
| Sophia Ronchetti | 2019 | 30:54.001 race | 32:34.001 race | +5.39% |
| Alexander Colangelo | 2022 | 18:19.001 race | 19:25.001 race | +6.01% |
| Emmett Kellogg | 2025 | 24:34.001 race | 26:03.001 race | +6.04% |
| Alan Wang | 2025 | 23:29.001 race | 24:57.001 race | +6.25% |
| Jeremy Eaton | 2021 | 20:18.001 race | 21:36.001 race | +6.40% |
| Kinh Kieu | 2022 | 29:06.001 race | 30:59.002 races | +6.47% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2021 | 21:35.001 race | 23:01.001 race | +6.64% |
| Carver Porter | 2021 | 20:33.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +6.73% |
| Quinn McCaffrey | 2025 | 21:49.001 race | 23:19.001 race | +6.88% |
| James Donahue | 2021 | 15:46.001 race | 16:53.001 race | +7.08% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2021 | 19:37.001 race | 21:03.001 race | +7.31% |
| George Yerid | 2025 | 21:38.001 race | 23:17.001 race | +7.63% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 18:47.001 race | 20:21.001 race | +8.34% |
| Charlotte Lokere | 2022 | 25:10.001 race | 27:16.003 races | +8.34% |
| Myles McCusker | 2022 | 21:03.001 race | 22:54.002 races | +8.79% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 18:22.001 race | 19:59.001 race | +8.80% |
| Arec Keomurjian | 2021 | 18:36.001 race | 20:15.001 race | +8.87% |
| Angus Harrison | 2021 | 18:58.001 race | 20:48.001 race | +9.67% |
| Michael Bobo | 2021 | 19:32.001 race | 21:28.001 race | +9.90% |
| Nathan Pappas | 2021 | 21:02.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +10.06% |
| Anthony Coston | 2022 | 21:09.001 race | 23:31.001 race | +11.19% |
| William Trautz | 2021 | 17:32.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +11.22% |
| Rinto Nakazawa | 2025 | 23:22.001 race | 26:18.001 race | +12.55% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2021 | 18:17.001 race | 20:38.001 race | +12.85% |
| Owen Wang | 2019 | 21:34.001 race | 25:45.001 race | +19.40% |
| Joshua White | 2022 | 23:29.001 race | 28:17.001 race | +20.44% |