Pairwise course analysis
Groton Schoolvs.Nobles NEPSTA Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
These courses run about even
+0.05%
Roughly 0.6 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
110
Deep evidence
Median difference
+0.83%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.05%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.81%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Nobles NEPSTA Course fasterEvenNobles NEPSTA Course slower
Confidence interval
+0.10% to +1.40%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Groton School | Nobles NEPSTA Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lin | 2019 | 28:32.001 race | 24:59.001 race | -12.44% |
| Yeabsira Gugssa | 2019 | 29:55.003 races | 26:43.001 race | -10.70% |
| Katie Riley | 2019 | 27:58.001 race | 26:08.001 race | -6.56% |
| Jonah Rothman | 2019 | 23:24.001 race | 22:01.001 race | -5.91% |
| Lakshmi Bogelli | 2019 | 30:48.001 race | 29:18.001 race | -4.87% |
| Anna Garvey | 2019 | 24:35.001 race | 23:27.001 race | -4.61% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2019 | 24:18.001 race | 23:13.001 race | -4.46% |
| Gigi Gillard | 2019 | 28:51.001 race | 27:40.001 race | -4.10% |
| Isabelle Stewart | 2019 | 25:24.001 race | 24:24.001 race | -3.94% |
| Ian Bayliss | 2019 | 19:37.003 races | 18:55.001 race | -3.57% |
| Lucy Rainer | 2019 | 25:24.001 race | 24:39.001 race | -2.95% |
| Caroline Locke | 2019 | 25:06.003 races | 24:26.001 race | -2.66% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2019 | 26:20.001 race | 25:39.001 race | -2.59% |
| Michael Lu | 2019 | 20:09.002 races | 19:39.001 race | -2.48% |
| Katie Wipf | 2019 | 21:05.001 race | 20:41.001 race | -1.90% |
| Hadley Stanton | 2019 | 23:44.001 race | 23:23.001 race | -1.47% |
| Lilly Bradley | 2019 | 19:33.001 race | 19:18.001 race | -1.28% |
| Ann Wichern | 2019 | 24:55.001 race | 24:37.001 race | -1.20% |
| Griffin Gibbs | 2019 | 20:14.001 race | 20:02.001 race | -0.99% |
| Joey O'Brien | 2019 | 18:38.003 races | 18:27.001 race | -0.98% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2019 | 22:01.001 race | 21:49.001 race | -0.91% |
| Jack Wang | 2019 | 19:46.002 races | 19:38.001 race | -0.67% |
| Lindsay Tucker | 2019 | 24:29.001 race | 24:20.001 race | -0.61% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2019 | 20:49.001 race | 20:42.001 race | -0.56% |
| Ryan King | 2019 | 22:17.001 race | 22:10.001 race | -0.52% |
| Meg Dugan | 2019 | 19:49.001 race | 19:43.001 race | -0.50% |
| Julian Li | 2019 | 18:52.001 race | 18:47.001 race | -0.44% |
| Hollen Knoell | 2019 | 22:41.001 race | 22:35.001 race | -0.44% |
| Alena Mulhern | 2019 | 23:57.001 race | 23:52.001 race | -0.35% |
| Lang Burgess | 2019 | 25:42.003 races | 25:37.001 race | -0.32% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2019 | 24:50.001 race | 24:46.001 race | -0.27% |
| Nicholas Tao | 2019 | 19:43.001 race | 19:40.001 race | -0.25% |
| Grigory Menshikov | 2019 | 22:36.001 race | 22:34.001 race | -0.15% |
| Julia Maimones | 2019 | 22:53.001 race | 22:52.001 race | -0.07% |
| Lucas Liu | 2019 | 21:13.001 race | 21:13.001 race | 0.00% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2019 | 22:42.001 race | 22:42.001 race | 0.00% |
| Aiden English | 2019 | 21:55.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +0.08% |
| Cordelia Loomis | 2019 | 23:18.001 race | 23:20.001 race | +0.14% |
| Conor Mannion | 2019 | 22:18.001 race | 22:20.001 race | +0.15% |
| Meghan Webb | 2019 | 21:38.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +0.15% |
| Garner Thompson | 2019 | 18:18.001 race | 18:20.001 race | +0.18% |
| Sarah Hastings | 2019 | 25:45.001 race | 25:48.001 race | +0.19% |
| Aisling O'Connell | 2019 | 22:31.002 races | 22:34.001 race | +0.22% |
| Talia Jachimowicz | 2019 | 23:45.001 race | 23:50.001 race | +0.35% |
| Daniel Wang | 2019 | 24:00.001 race | 24:06.001 race | +0.42% |
| Amy Ma | 2019 | 25:36.002 races | 25:43.001 race | +0.46% |
| Cameron Walker | 2019 | 24:55.001 race | 25:02.001 race | +0.47% |
| Ryan Loughran | 2019 | 18:48.001 race | 18:54.001 race | +0.53% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2019 | 20:14.001 race | 20:21.001 race | +0.58% |
| Alex Hallstrom | 2019 | 19:24.001 race | 19:31.001 race | +0.60% |
| Lucy Anderson | 2019 | 24:21.002 races | 24:30.001 race | +0.62% |
| Jessica Choe | 2019 | 26:48.002 races | 26:59.001 race | +0.68% |
| Gabby Guerrero | 2019 | 18:47.001 race | 18:55.001 race | +0.71% |
| Alan Du | 2019 | 18:21.003 races | 18:29.001 race | +0.73% |
| Joshua Guo | 2019 | 18:14.002 races | 18:23.001 race | +0.82% |
| Ally Gilbert | 2019 | 25:52.001 race | 26:05.001 race | +0.84% |
| Ford Legg | 2019 | 20:40.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +0.89% |
| Eli Kream | 2019 | 21:04.001 race | 21:16.001 race | +0.95% |
| Olivia Fayemi | 2019 | 27:46.003 races | 28:04.001 race | +1.08% |
| Samantha Noonan | 2019 | 24:13.001 race | 24:29.001 race | +1.10% |
| Tommy Gaffey | 2019 | 16:24.001 race | 16:35.001 race | +1.12% |
| Ines Levy | 2019 | 21:30.001 race | 21:45.001 race | +1.16% |
| Andrew Mazza | 2019 | 17:37.002 races | 17:50.001 race | +1.23% |
| Vivan Das | 2019 | 18:47.003 races | 19:01.001 race | +1.24% |
| John Michaud | 2019 | 18:32.002 races | 18:46.001 race | +1.26% |
| Stanislas Robert | 2019 | 18:26.003 races | 18:40.001 race | +1.27% |
| Wren Fortunoff | 2019 | 21:57.003 races | 22:14.001 race | +1.29% |
| Christian Batemen | 2019 | 20:31.001 race | 20:47.001 race | +1.30% |
| Aidan Armaly | 2019 | 20:12.003 races | 20:28.001 race | +1.32% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2019 | 20:36.001 race | 20:54.001 race | +1.46% |
| Sam Harris | 2019 | 20:13.003 races | 20:31.001 race | +1.48% |
| Theo Goldman | 2019 | 21:09.001 race | 21:28.001 race | +1.50% |
| Sophia Wu | 2019 | 23:22.003 races | 23:43.001 race | +1.50% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2019 | 18:45.001 race | 19:03.001 race | +1.60% |
| Phoebe Lynch | 2019 | 27:14.002 races | 27:42.001 race | +1.71% |
| Andrew Monsalve | 2019 | 20:37.001 race | 20:59.001 race | +1.78% |
| Lwazi Bululu | 2019 | 18:31.002 races | 18:51.001 race | +1.80% |
| Sam Rabieh | 2019 | 17:20.001 race | 17:39.001 race | +1.83% |
| Alex Wu | 2019 | 18:03.001 race | 18:24.001 race | +1.94% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2019 | 24:38.001 race | 25:09.001 race | +2.10% |
| Mathew Hong | 2019 | 18:36.001 race | 19:01.001 race | +2.24% |
| Katie Chen | 2019 | 23:01.001 race | 23:33.001 race | +2.32% |
| Ellie Berman | 2019 | 23:35.001 race | 24:09.001 race | +2.40% |
| Jack Lionette | 2019 | 17:06.002 races | 17:31.001 race | +2.44% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2019 | 18:37.001 race | 19:05.001 race | +2.51% |
| Jake Elkins | 2019 | 19:41.001 race | 20:11.001 race | +2.54% |
| Alex Hass | 2019 | 20:04.001 race | 20:37.001 race | +2.74% |
| Olivia Knight | 2019 | 20:48.001 race | 21:23.001 race | +2.80% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2019 | 18:49.001 race | 19:21.001 race | +2.83% |
| Quinn Anderson-Song | 2019 | 18:30.001 race | 19:02.001 race | +2.88% |
| Zach Lonberg | 2019 | 23:40.001 race | 24:22.001 race | +2.96% |
| Emelie Engstrom | 2019 | 27:29.001 race | 28:19.001 race | +3.03% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2019 | 19:54.001 race | 20:31.001 race | +3.10% |
| Jack Gilbert | 2019 | 19:59.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +3.42% |
| Derek Chang | 2019 | 17:29.003 races | 18:05.001 race | +3.43% |
| Tommy Bi | 2019 | 24:10.001 race | 25:02.001 race | +3.59% |
| Noah Bay | 2019 | 18:43.003 races | 19:24.001 race | +3.65% |
| Grant Coldren | 2019 | 18:35.001 race | 19:16.001 race | +3.68% |
| Charles Chen | 2019 | 21:45.001 race | 22:34.001 race | +3.75% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2019 | 20:34.001 race | 21:23.001 race | +3.97% |
| Sophia Deng | 2019 | 24:41.003 races | 25:44.001 race | +4.25% |
| Eric Berard | 2019 | 18:18.001 race | 19:06.001 race | +4.37% |
| Katie Reveno | 2019 | 21:18.002 races | 22:14.001 race | +4.38% |
| Corrine Waters | 2019 | 21:33.001 race | 22:33.001 race | +4.64% |
| Selina Liu | 2019 | 25:07.001 race | 26:26.001 race | +5.24% |
| Aroon Sankoh | 2019 | 17:58.002 races | 19:11.001 race | +6.77% |
| Cara Chang | 2019 | 22:37.003 races | 24:15.001 race | +7.22% |
| Brianna Zhang | 2019 | 22:57.001 race | 24:41.001 race | +7.55% |
| Grace Stanton | 2019 | 22:38.001 race | 25:20.001 race | +11.93% |
| Abigail Rabieh | 2019 | 23:08.001 race | 26:36.001 race | +14.99% |