Pairwise course analysis
Groton Schoolvs.St. Sebastian's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Sebastian's 5K Course runs slower
+5.29%
Roughly 1:03 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
34
Developing evidence
Median difference
+5.59%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+5.29%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.02%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+3.56% to +6.67%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Groton School | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kalinichenko | 2022 | 28:37.001 race | 26:28.001 race | -7.51% |
| Eddie Zhang | 2022 | 22:39.001 race | 22:12.001 race | -1.99% |
| David Min | 2019 | 29:47.001 race | 29:19.001 race | -1.57% |
| Matthew Choumenkovitch | 2022 | 24:40.001 race | 24:36.001 race | -0.27% |
| John Joyce | 2022 | 18:21.001 race | 18:33.001 race | +1.09% |
| Jake Elkins | 2019 | 19:41.001 race | 19:54.001 race | +1.10% |
| Jack Connors | 2022 | 17:56.001 race | 18:16.001 race | +1.86% |
| Ryan Loughran | 2019 | 18:48.001 race | 19:13.001 race | +2.22% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2022 | 18:15.001 race | 18:44.001 race | +2.65% |
| Mathew Hong | 2019 | 18:36.001 race | 19:08.001 race | +2.87% |
| William Hansen | 2022 | 20:04.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +2.99% |
| Owen Dowden | 2019 | 26:42.001 race | 27:32.001 race | +3.12% |
| Julian Li | 2019 | 18:52.001 race | 19:37.001 race | +3.98% |
| Sam Rabieh | 2019 | 17:20.001 race | 18:03.001 race | +4.13% |
| Chris Thompson | 2022 | 19:49.001 race | 20:39.001 race | +4.21% |
| Nicholas Tao | 2019 | 19:43.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +4.82% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2019 | 18:45.001 race | 19:46.001 race | +5.42% |
| Bobby Brady | 2022 | 23:10.001 race | 24:30.001 race | +5.76% |
| Christian Batemen | 2019 | 20:31.001 race | 21:47.001 race | +6.17% |
| Sam Modur | 2019 | 22:41.001 race | 24:10.001 race | +6.54% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2022 | 18:33.001 race | 19:48.001 race | +6.74% |
| Augustus Hawk | 2019 | 20:47.001 race | 22:13.001 race | +6.90% |
| Charles Chen | 2019 | 21:45.001 race | 23:20.001 race | +7.28% |
| Ford Legg | 2019 | 20:40.001 race | 22:11.001 race | +7.34% |
| Theo Goldman | 2019 | 21:09.001 race | 22:43.001 race | +7.41% |
| Andrew Monsalve | 2019 | 20:37.001 race | 22:16.001 race | +8.00% |
| Ekaum Soni | 2019 | 29:55.001 race | 32:28.001 race | +8.52% |
| Zane Davis | 2019 | 22:12.001 race | 24:09.001 race | +8.78% |
| Tim Guan | 2019 | 26:56.001 race | 29:20.001 race | +8.91% |
| Alex Wu | 2019 | 18:03.001 race | 19:43.001 race | +9.23% |
| Louis Levy | 2019 | 20:32.001 race | 22:27.001 race | +9.33% |
| Alex Avram | 2019 | 24:54.001 race | 27:33.001 race | +10.64% |
| Oscar Caprano | 2019 | 21:43.001 race | 24:40.001 race | +13.58% |
| Asher Parker-Sartori | 2019 | 24:48.001 race | 28:56.001 race | +16.67% |