Pairwise course analysis
Hotchkiss School 5Kvs.Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K runs slower
+1.65%
Roughly 19.8 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
14
Limited evidence
Median difference
+2.37%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.65%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.02%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+1.36% to +3.55%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Hotchkiss School 5K | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitz Courtney | 2024 | 17:35.001 race | 17:33.001 race | -0.19% |
| Maksim Roman | 2024 | 18:50.001 race | 18:49.001 race | -0.09% |
| Eita Fuse | 2024 | 17:52.001 race | 17:58.001 race | +0.56% |
| Timothy Snail | 2024 | 18:09.001 race | 18:17.001 race | +0.73% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2024 | 17:05.001 race | 17:16.001 race | +1.07% |
| Johannes Eikeboom | 2024 | 20:06.001 race | 20:19.001 race | +1.08% |
| Babikir Saeed | 2024 | 18:41.001 race | 19:07.001 race | +2.32% |
| William Trautz | 2024 | 16:28.001 race | 16:52.001 race | +2.43% |
| John Pena | 2024 | 20:09.001 race | 20:44.001 race | +2.89% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2024 | 19:42.001 race | 20:24.001 race | +3.55% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2024 | 19:19.001 race | 20:05.001 race | +3.97% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2024 | 17:59.001 race | 18:42.001 race | +3.99% |
| Sebastian Colberg | 2024 | 19:01.001 race | 20:08.001 race | +5.87% |
| Jack Good | 2024 | 18:30.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +6.40% |