Pairwise course analysis

LA 5K Coursevs.Championship 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Championship 5K runs faster

-10.70%

Roughly 2:08 faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

15

Developing evidence

Median difference

-10.80%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-10.70%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+6.54%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Championship 5K fasterEvenChampionship 5K slower

Confidence interval

-14.87% to -10.52%

Scale shown

-16% to +16%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonLA 5K CourseChampionship 5KDifference
Forrest Feist201934:11.002 races26:04.001 race-23.74%
Patrick Riley201925:00.002 races20:50.001 race-16.67%
Jack Carolan201928:38.002 races24:03.001 race-16.01%
Kiet Nguyen201923:26.002 races19:49.001 race-15.43%
Andrew Young201926:04.001 race22:07.001 race-15.15%
Joshua Rocha201921:40.001 race18:45.001 race-13.46%
Grant Reagan-Loomis201921:21.001 race18:56.001 race-11.32%
Tyler Cornetta201921:45.001 race19:24.001 race-10.80%
Walt Reagan-Loomis201922:21.001 race20:00.001 race-10.51%
Sawyer Helzberg201921:41.001 race19:29.001 race-10.15%
Oliver Carswell201921:39.001 race19:31.001 race-9.85%
Arhant Ghanta201923:39.002 races21:22.001 race-9.65%
Gavin Shan201924:55.002 races22:35.001 race-9.36%
Cole Zaleski201920:35.001 race18:41.001 race-9.23%
Eli Helzberg201921:30.001 race19:47.001 race-7.98%