Pairwise course analysis
LA 5K Coursevs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs faster
-1.11%
Roughly 13.3 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
42
Strong evidence
Median difference
+0.33%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-1.11%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.29%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-0.39% to +3.44%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | LA 5K Course | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Voss | 2021 | 20:38.001 race | 19:06.001 race | -7.43% |
| Thomas Romney | 2021 | 20:16.001 race | 19:07.001 race | -5.67% |
| William Trautz | 2021 | 19:30.001 race | 18:30.001 race | -5.13% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 20:21.001 race | 19:23.001 race | -4.75% |
| James Donahue | 2021 | 16:53.001 race | 16:06.001 race | -4.64% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 19:59.001 race | 19:06.001 race | -4.42% |
| Eita Fuse | 2025 | 18:44.001 race | 18:14.001 race | -2.67% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2022 | 18:50.001 race | 18:24.001 race | -2.30% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2021 | 19:29.001 race | 19:03.001 race | -2.22% |
| Nashr El Auliya | 2019 | 21:43.001 race | 21:19.001 race | -1.84% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2022 | 18:21.001 race | 18:01.001 race | -1.82% |
| Evan Salhanick | 2019 | 21:44.001 race | 21:24.001 race | -1.53% |
| John Joyce | 2022 | 18:08.001 race | 17:52.001 race | -1.47% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2025 | 17:49.001 race | 17:37.001 race | -1.12% |
| John Pena | 2025 | 23:33.001 race | 23:22.001 race | -0.78% |
| Gardner Brown | 2019 | 22:56.001 race | 22:48.001 race | -0.58% |
| Suhas Kaniyar | 2025 | 25:23.001 race | 25:17.001 race | -0.39% |
| Eddie Zhang | 2022 | 21:40.001 race | 21:37.001 race | -0.23% |
| Tori Duckworth | 2019 | 24:40.001 race | 24:44.001 race | +0.27% |
| Molly Madigan | 2019 | 24:18.001 race | 24:22.001 race | +0.27% |
| Jack Connors | 2022 | 17:39.001 race | 17:42.001 race | +0.28% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2025 | 18:04.001 race | 18:08.001 race | +0.37% |
| Eleanor Mayer | 2019 | 27:34.001 race | 27:42.001 race | +0.48% |
| Liam Gavin | 2022 | 20:54.001 race | 21:03.001 race | +0.72% |
| Miles Keller | 2025 | 18:53.001 race | 19:04.001 race | +0.97% |
| Michael Kalinichenko | 2022 | 25:50.001 race | 26:11.001 race | +1.35% |
| Timothy Snail | 2025 | 18:40.001 race | 18:57.001 race | +1.52% |
| William Hansen | 2022 | 20:02.001 race | 20:21.001 race | +1.58% |
| Chris Thompson | 2022 | 19:41.001 race | 20:02.001 race | +1.78% |
| Joe Zhao | 2019 | 25:40.001 race | 26:20.001 race | +2.60% |
| Adam Jac | 2019 | 23:02.001 race | 23:47.001 race | +3.26% |
| Jonathan Demosthene | 2022 | 20:50.001 race | 21:34.001 race | +3.52% |
| Declan Woolbert | 2025 | 18:10.001 race | 18:51.001 race | +3.76% |
| Minho Eune | 2019 | 22:21.001 race | 23:12.001 race | +3.80% |
| Oliver Kim | 2019 | 28:49.001 race | 29:55.001 race | +3.82% |
| James Lyman | 2019 | 21:46.001 race | 23:08.001 race | +6.28% |
| William Trautz | 2025 | 16:01.001 race | 17:04.001 race | +6.56% |
| Alex Tobias | 2019 | 18:50.001 race | 20:23.001 race | +8.23% |
| Ryan Li | 2025 | 22:30.001 race | 24:36.001 race | +9.33% |
| Sam Kim | 2019 | 26:44.001 race | 29:48.001 race | +11.47% |
| James Palumbo | 2025 | 21:12.001 race | 24:11.001 race | +14.07% |
| Adam Jin | 2019 | 26:21.001 race | 35:28.001 race | +34.60% |