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Pairwise course analysis

LA 5K Coursevs.St. Sebastian's 5K Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

St. Sebastian's 5K Course runs slower

+0.94%

Roughly 11.3 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

54

Strong evidence

Median difference

+2.44%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+0.94%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.07%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

St. Sebastian's 5K Course fasterEvenSt. Sebastian's 5K Course slower

Confidence interval

+1.29% to +3.40%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

LA 5K Course

5,000 meters

Compared course

St. Sebastian's 5K Course

5,000 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonLA 5K CourseSt. Sebastian's 5K CourseDifference
Darian Estrada202228:30.001 race26:30.001 race-7.02%
Joseph Pandit201920:11.001 race19:03.001 race-5.62%
John Pena202523:33.001 race22:38.001 race-3.89%
Matthew Choumenkovitch201924:16.001 race23:37.001 race-2.68%
Mark Wilson201921:01.001 race20:28.001 race-2.62%
Alessandro Barbiellini201923:15.001 race22:47.001 race-2.01%
Patrick McDonald201918:23.001 race18:01.001 race-1.99%
Griffin Calhoun202520:51.001 race20:27.001 race-1.92%
Henry Gennari201922:54.001 race22:39.001 race-1.09%
Samuel Hinman201918:58.001 race18:53.001 race-0.44%
Akshay Kumar202220:25.001 race20:21.001 race-0.33%
Michael Thomas202219:03.001 race19:04.001 race+0.09%
Levi Harrison202218:34.001 race18:37.001 race+0.27%
Ezra Klauber202219:31.001 race19:35.001 race+0.34%
Zach Heaton202220:10.001 race20:19.001 race+0.74%
Alex Chen202522:16.001 race22:28.001 race+0.90%
Calvin Reid202222:53.001 race23:07.001 race+1.02%
Matthew Choumenkovitch202224:17.001 race24:36.001 race+1.30%
Eita Fuse202518:44.001 race19:01.001 race+1.51%
Quinn Thomson202222:59.001 race23:21.001 race+1.60%
Daniel Ko201925:34.001 race26:01.001 race+1.76%
Thomas Flatley201918:31.001 race18:52.001 race+1.89%
Samuel Hinman202218:21.001 race18:44.001 race+2.09%
Patrick Snail202520:54.001 race21:22.001 race+2.23%
Akhilsai Damera202220:22.001 race20:50.001 race+2.29%
John Joyce202218:08.001 race18:33.001 race+2.30%
William Hansen201921:20.001 race21:51.001 race+2.42%
Michael Kalinichenko202225:50.001 race26:28.001 race+2.45%
Eddie Zhang202221:40.001 race22:12.001 race+2.46%
Mathias Why202220:19.001 race20:50.001 race+2.54%
Miles Keller202518:53.001 race19:22.001 race+2.56%
Thomas Savage202221:45.002 races22:22.001 race+2.84%
Eric Diop202217:52.001 race18:24.001 race+2.99%
Colin Grierson202518:42.001 race19:17.001 race+3.12%
William Trautz202516:01.001 race16:31.001 race+3.12%
Timothy Snail202518:40.001 race19:15.001 race+3.13%
William Hansen202220:02.001 race20:40.001 race+3.16%
Alexander Guo202522:14.001 race22:58.001 race+3.30%
Riley Marth202520:18.001 race20:59.001 race+3.37%
Jack Connors202217:39.001 race18:16.001 race+3.49%
James Palumbo202521:12.001 race21:57.001 race+3.54%
Jack Good202519:26.001 race20:16.001 race+4.29%
Thomas Egan202521:06.001 race22:04.001 race+4.58%
Chris Thompson202219:41.001 race20:39.001 race+4.91%
Liam Gavin202220:54.001 race21:57.001 race+5.02%
Sebastian Culleton202218:50.001 race19:48.001 race+5.13%
Yamin Ibrahim202518:04.001 race19:03.001 race+5.44%
Jonathan Demosthene202220:50.001 race22:03.001 race+5.84%
John (Jack) Tompros202221:44.001 race23:05.001 race+6.21%
William Achtmeyer202520:55.001 race22:19.001 race+6.69%
John (Jake) Popeo202219:14.001 race20:47.001 race+8.06%
Babikir Saeed202518:51.001 race20:29.001 race+8.66%
Declan Woolbert202518:10.001 race20:40.001 race+13.76%
Suhas Kaniyar202525:23.001 race29:38.001 race+16.74%