Pairwise course analysis

Middlesex 5K Coursevs.Championship 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Championship 5K runs faster

-9.70%

Roughly 1:56 faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

Developing evidence

Median difference

-9.10%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-9.70%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.10%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Championship 5K fasterEvenChampionship 5K slower

Confidence interval

-10.48% to -7.87%

Scale shown

-12% to +12%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

Middlesex 5K Course

5,000 meters

Compared course

Championship 5K

5,000 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

Runner	Season	Middlesex 5K Course	Championship 5K	Difference
Peter Yu	2019	23:26.001 race	20:14.001 race	-13.66%
Cate Wachholz	2019	25:52.001 race	22:31.001 race	-12.95%
Jonathan Cajamarca	2019	20:42.001 race	18:13.001 race	-12.00%
Preston Spaan	2019	21:44.001 race	19:18.001 race	-11.20%
Juliana Di Napoli	2019	27:18.001 race	24:27.001 race	-10.44%
Oscar King	2019	20:51.001 race	18:44.001 race	-10.15%
Camryn Flessel	2019	24:37.001 race	22:18.001 race	-9.41%
Jason Lee	2019	21:57.001 race	19:57.001 race	-9.11%
Nathan An	2019	22:45.001 race	20:41.001 race	-9.08%
Patricio Troop	2019	24:41.001 race	22:29.001 race	-8.91%
Zuriel Jimenez	2019	27:15.001 race	24:54.001 race	-8.62%
Ethan Choung	2019	22:47.001 race	20:57.001 race	-8.05%
Corinne O'Loughlin	2019	25:52.001 race	23:59.001 race	-7.28%
Maya Daly	2019	24:29.001 race	22:51.001 race	-6.67%
Chase Farrick	2019	20:46.001 race	19:42.001 race	-5.14%
Allen Xia	2019	22:49.001 race	21:59.001 race	-3.65%