Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.Governor's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Governor's 5K Course runs slower
+0.66%
Roughly 7.9 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
220
Deep evidence
Median difference
-1.26%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.66%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.57%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Governor's 5K Course fasterEvenGovernor's 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-2.30% to -0.67%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | Governor's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justine Lam | 2019 | 39:43.002 races | 28:57.001 race | -27.11% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2021 | 31:12.001 race | 24:33.002 races | -21.31% |
| Justin Li | 2019 | 29:05.003 races | 24:11.001 race | -16.85% |
| Adam Jin | 2019 | 35:28.001 race | 29:42.001 race | -16.26% |
| Rinto Nakazawa | 2023 | 30:53.001 race | 26:04.001 race | -15.60% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2023 | 28:32.001 race | 24:16.003 races | -14.95% |
| Jacqueline Thabit | 2021 | 31:19.001 race | 26:53.002 races | -14.16% |
| Aiden English | 2021 | 25:26.001 race | 21:54.002 races | -13.89% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2021 | 27:06.001 race | 23:36.001 race | -12.92% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2021 | 25:13.001 race | 22:30.002 races | -10.77% |
| Peter Abenante | 2021 | 27:19.001 race | 24:29.002 races | -10.37% |
| Hyuntae Choi | 2019 | 25:52.003 races | 23:17.001 race | -9.99% |
| Andy Chefetz | 2019 | 29:59.002 races | 27:01.001 race | -9.89% |
| Kevin Yao | 2021 | 29:45.001 race | 26:50.004 races | -9.80% |
| Keenan Billings | 2021 | 20:47.001 race | 18:45.001 race | -9.78% |
| Sanjay Ravindran | 2023 | 27:15.001 race | 24:36.001 race | -9.72% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2021 | 22:38.001 race | 20:28.002 races | -9.57% |
| Grace Luettgen | 2019 | 28:12.003 races | 25:33.001 race | -9.40% |
| George Yerid | 2023 | 33:25.001 race | 30:20.001 race | -9.23% |
| Ben Luo | 2019 | 25:13.003 races | 22:55.001 race | -9.12% |
| Michael Cheng | 2019 | 25:12.003 races | 23:00.001 race | -8.73% |
| Ty Wilschut | 2019 | 29:07.002 races | 26:45.001 race | -8.13% |
| Sophia Matherly | 2021 | 31:26.001 race | 29:01.002 races | -7.69% |
| Brian Zheng | 2021 | 25:06.001 race | 23:12.002 races | -7.57% |
| Tim Cassidy | 2019 | 26:53.003 races | 24:54.001 race | -7.38% |
| Cole Gaynor | 2021 | 21:26.001 race | 19:56.001 race | -7.00% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2023 | 23:41.001 race | 22:02.002 races | -6.97% |
| Cora Knoell | 2021 | 26:53.001 race | 25:10.002 races | -6.39% |
| Peter Feng | 2023 | 29:31.001 race | 27:40.002 races | -6.27% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2021 | 27:09.001 race | 25:28.001 race | -6.20% |
| Caleb Krueger | 2019 | 20:34.003 races | 19:19.001 race | -6.08% |
| Richard (Ricky) Li | 2019 | 24:25.001 race | 22:56.001 race | -6.08% |
| Erin Crisafi | 2021 | 26:11.001 race | 24:38.002 races | -5.92% |
| Sofia Guisti | 2024 | 33:20.001 race | 31:23.001 race | -5.85% |
| Ayo Pickering | 2024 | 33:20.001 race | 31:23.001 race | -5.85% |
| Andy Jiang | 2021 | 28:49.001 race | 27:09.002 races | -5.78% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2021 | 19:03.001 race | 17:57.001 race | -5.77% |
| Rosie Qin | 2019 | 28:19.003 races | 26:42.001 race | -5.71% |
| Kitso Paulson | 2021 | 21:45.001 race | 20:31.001 race | -5.67% |
| Katie Donahue | 2025 | 25:06.001 race | 23:42.001 race | -5.58% |
| Bear Brooks | 2021 | 18:26.001 race | 17:25.002 races | -5.52% |
| Theodore (Theo) Andersen | 2023 | 31:12.001 race | 29:30.002 races | -5.45% |
| Joshua White | 2023 | 25:42.001 race | 24:20.001 race | -5.32% |
| Joe Zhao | 2019 | 26:20.001 race | 24:59.001 race | -5.13% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2025 | 27:53.001 race | 26:31.002 races | -4.90% |
| Matt Wing | 2019 | 19:24.003 races | 18:28.001 race | -4.81% |
| Danielle Brennan | 2021 | 24:07.001 race | 22:58.001 race | -4.77% |
| Josie Silk | 2019 | 24:18.003 races | 23:10.001 race | -4.66% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2021 | 23:23.001 race | 22:18.001 race | -4.63% |
| Maanasi Chintamani | 2019 | 27:50.003 races | 26:34.001 race | -4.55% |
| Megan Ding | 2019 | 26:32.003 races | 25:22.001 race | -4.40% |
| Maya Sidhu | 2019 | 26:19.003 races | 25:10.001 race | -4.37% |
| Tessa Borgatti | 2025 | 26:53.001 race | 25:44.001 race | -4.28% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2025 | 26:48.001 race | 25:40.003 races | -4.23% |
| Aparajita Srivastava | 2021 | 26:36.001 race | 25:30.001 race | -4.14% |
| Mia Peng | 2019 | 30:05.003 races | 28:51.001 race | -4.10% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2021 | 26:11.001 race | 25:07.001 race | -4.07% |
| Calvin Jacobs | 2025 | 20:32.001 race | 19:42.002 races | -4.06% |
| Amelia Stevens | 2019 | 25:52.003 races | 24:50.001 race | -3.99% |
| Elizabeth Gatto | 2019 | 28:05.003 races | 26:59.001 race | -3.92% |
| Clara Choi | 2019 | 41:50.001 race | 40:14.001 race | -3.82% |
| Phoebe Lu | 2019 | 27:35.003 races | 26:33.001 race | -3.75% |
| Laruen McMahon | 2021 | 25:40.001 race | 24:43.002 races | -3.70% |
| Ruby Massengale | 2019 | 30:06.003 races | 29:00.001 race | -3.65% |
| Amina Cifric | 2023 | 22:07.001 race | 21:20.003 races | -3.54% |
| Lucas Liu | 2021 | 21:45.001 race | 20:59.001 race | -3.52% |
| Owen Haskell | 2025 | 20:20.001 race | 19:37.002 races | -3.52% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2025 | 20:21.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -3.52% |
| Sam Kim | 2019 | 29:48.001 race | 28:48.001 race | -3.36% |
| Alaina Millian | 2025 | 26:38.001 race | 25:45.002 races | -3.32% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2021 | 26:15.001 race | 25:23.001 race | -3.30% |
| Meena Menon | 2019 | 23:15.003 races | 22:29.001 race | -3.30% |
| Gabby Walsh | 2019 | 22:15.003 races | 21:31.001 race | -3.30% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2023 | 26:22.001 race | 25:30.002 races | -3.29% |
| Meri Rainford | 2023 | 23:46.001 race | 23:00.001 race | -3.23% |
| Jillian Robertson | 2019 | 23:19.003 races | 22:35.001 race | -3.15% |
| Meg Tarling | 2025 | 22:56.001 race | 22:13.003 races | -3.12% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2021 | 25:50.001 race | 25:04.001 race | -2.97% |
| Xander Starobin | 2019 | 27:25.003 races | 26:37.001 race | -2.92% |
| Ashton Vertus | 2024 | 29:56.001 race | 29:04.001 race | -2.90% |
| Maddie Gaynor | 2021 | 25:37.001 race | 24:53.001 race | -2.86% |
| Vedant Deokar | 2019 | 23:02.003 races | 22:23.001 race | -2.82% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2021 | 22:50.001 race | 22:13.001 race | -2.70% |
| Oliver Kim | 2019 | 29:55.001 race | 29:07.001 race | -2.67% |
| Minho Eune | 2019 | 23:12.001 race | 22:37.001 race | -2.51% |
| Adalynne Mertz | 2024 | 34:05.001 race | 33:15.001 race | -2.44% |
| Cian McCarthy | 2025 | 30:39.001 race | 29:55.002 races | -2.39% |
| Greg JV Linton | 2019 | 27:30.002 races | 26:52.001 race | -2.30% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2021 | 22:42.001 race | 22:11.001 race | -2.28% |
| Monica Mukherjee | 2019 | 25:51.001 race | 25:17.001 race | -2.19% |
| Henry Seilheimer | 2024 | 19:55.001 race | 19:29.001 race | -2.18% |
| Annabelle Rogers | 2019 | 23:03.003 races | 22:33.001 race | -2.17% |
| Tabi Kelly | 2025 | 23:18.001 race | 22:48.003 races | -2.15% |
| Mariam Craig | 2019 | 23:54.003 races | 23:24.001 race | -2.09% |
| Samara Gorton | 2024 | 25:40.001 race | 25:08.001 race | -2.08% |
| Peter Favero | 2019 | 19:41.003 races | 19:17.001 race | -2.03% |
| Alene Fernandes | 2019 | 22:52.002 races | 22:26.001 race | -1.90% |
| Grace Hu | 2019 | 22:55.003 races | 22:29.001 race | -1.89% |
| Sophia Mikelinich | 2023 | 22:26.001 race | 22:01.003 races | -1.86% |
| Aditya Shrivastava | 2023 | 22:05.001 race | 21:42.002 races | -1.74% |
| Brady Preneta | 2025 | 20:17.001 race | 19:57.003 races | -1.64% |
| Alex Tobias | 2019 | 20:23.001 race | 20:03.001 race | -1.64% |
| Max Rochford | 2023 | 24:41.001 race | 24:18.003 races | -1.55% |
| Andrew Harris | 2019 | 18:28.003 races | 18:11.001 race | -1.53% |
| Adam Ewing | 2019 | 22:50.003 races | 22:30.001 race | -1.46% |
| William Trautz | 2021 | 18:30.001 race | 18:14.001 race | -1.44% |
| Shreya Jain | 2019 | 29:28.002 races | 29:03.001 race | -1.41% |
| Cole JV Stewart | 2019 | 26:31.002 races | 26:09.001 race | -1.38% |
| Ethan Chang | 2019 | 26:44.003 races | 26:23.001 race | -1.31% |
| Tessa Borgatti | 2023 | 24:40.001 race | 24:21.002 races | -1.28% |
| James Donahue | 2021 | 16:06.001 race | 15:54.001 race | -1.24% |
| Ashley Robertson | 2023 | 29:28.001 race | 29:07.001 race | -1.19% |
| Ella McDonald | 2023 | 23:45.001 race | 23:31.003 races | -0.98% |
| Zan Danoff | 2019 | 19:50.003 races | 19:39.001 race | -0.92% |
| Mac Hadden | 2019 | 18:08.003 races | 17:58.001 race | -0.92% |
| Juliet Banzi | 2025 | 22:20.001 race | 22:09.002 races | -0.82% |
| Sean McLaughlin | 2019 | 21:05.002 races | 20:55.001 race | -0.79% |
| Oliver Massey | 2025 | 19:55.001 race | 19:47.002 races | -0.67% |
| Martin Beaumont-Mill | 2023 | 23:02.001 race | 22:53.003 races | -0.65% |
| Hannah Bernstein | 2021 | 21:41.001 race | 21:35.001 race | -0.46% |
| Ford Legg | 2021 | 18:20.001 race | 18:15.001 race | -0.45% |
| Arav Kochar | 2023 | 24:35.001 race | 24:30.002 races | -0.34% |
| Brandon Abell | 2025 | 21:10.001 race | 21:06.002 races | -0.31% |
| Leah Jin | 2021 | 27:07.001 race | 27:03.001 race | -0.25% |
| Dylan Uttam | 2023 | 21:25.001 race | 21:23.002 races | -0.16% |
| Thomas Romney | 2021 | 19:07.001 race | 19:07.001 race | 0.00% |
| Amanda Gary | 2021 | 24:06.001 race | 24:06.001 race | 0.00% |
| David Latham | 2019 | 17:51.003 races | 17:53.001 race | +0.19% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 19:06.001 race | 19:09.001 race | +0.26% |
| Austin Corbett | 2023 | 18:44.001 race | 18:47.003 races | +0.27% |
| Cannon Caspar | 2019 | 18:44.003 races | 18:47.001 race | +0.27% |
| Jason Li | 2023 | 25:50.001 race | 25:56.002 races | +0.39% |
| Josh Taylor | 2023 | 21:57.001 race | 22:03.003 races | +0.46% |
| Kelly Zhao | 2024 | 22:36.001 race | 22:43.001 race | +0.52% |
| Andrew Correia | 2021 | 19:46.001 race | 19:53.001 race | +0.59% |
| Connor Cross | 2019 | 18:31.003 races | 18:38.001 race | +0.63% |
| Erin Crisafi | 2023 | 25:47.001 race | 25:58.003 races | +0.71% |
| Tanay Kommareddi | 2019 | 23:23.001 race | 23:35.001 race | +0.86% |
| Alexander Colangelo | 2023 | 17:52.001 race | 18:02.001 race | +0.93% |
| Penelope Tregoe | 2024 | 24:43.001 race | 24:57.001 race | +0.94% |
| Lindy Zhang | 2024 | 22:45.001 race | 22:58.001 race | +0.95% |
| Owen Spring | 2024 | 23:33.001 race | 23:47.001 race | +0.99% |
| Evan Salhanick | 2019 | 21:24.001 race | 21:38.001 race | +1.09% |
| Grace Maloney | 2023 | 23:44.001 race | 24:00.003 races | +1.12% |
| Quentin DeFreitas | 2023 | 24:00.001 race | 24:17.001 race | +1.18% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 19:23.001 race | 19:37.001 race | +1.20% |
| Peter Abenante | 2023 | 20:53.001 race | 21:09.003 races | +1.28% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2021 | 20:49.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +1.28% |
| Liv Ding | 2024 | 27:26.001 race | 27:50.001 race | +1.46% |
| Cassidy Kamil | 2025 | 26:19.001 race | 26:43.003 races | +1.52% |
| Thomas Ireland | 2025 | 18:49.001 race | 19:07.002 races | +1.59% |
| Emily Geist | 2025 | 29:14.001 race | 29:42.001 race | +1.60% |
| Quinn Bartling | 2025 | 20:56.001 race | 21:17.002 races | +1.67% |
| Gabriel Barreto-D'Silva | 2019 | 24:10.001 race | 24:35.001 race | +1.72% |
| Lucy McCormick | 2025 | 20:54.001 race | 21:17.003 races | +1.83% |
| Cooper Austen | 2019 | 17:32.003 races | 17:52.001 race | +1.90% |
| Ideal Liang | 2025 | 25:13.001 race | 25:42.002 races | +1.92% |
| James Lyman | 2019 | 23:08.001 race | 23:35.001 race | +1.95% |
| Janciel Martinez | 2023 | 24:00.001 race | 24:29.003 races | +2.01% |
| Jason Zhu | 2023 | 28:28.001 race | 29:03.002 races | +2.05% |
| Thaddaeus Flatz-Ehrfeld | 2024 | 19:06.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +2.09% |
| Suma Bogelli | 2025 | 25:18.001 race | 25:50.003 races | +2.11% |
| Pauline McAndrew | 2024 | 27:31.001 race | 28:06.001 race | +2.12% |
| Wes Gray | 2025 | 24:58.001 race | 25:30.001 race | +2.14% |
| Carter Lightburn | 2024 | 19:25.001 race | 19:50.001 race | +2.15% |
| Brian Zheng | 2023 | 20:54.001 race | 21:23.001 race | +2.31% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 17:48.001 race | 18:13.001 race | +2.34% |
| Umar Fayzullaev | 2025 | 24:13.001 race | 24:48.003 races | +2.41% |
| Nashr El Auliya | 2019 | 21:19.001 race | 21:50.001 race | +2.42% |
| Nicholas Reimer | 2023 | 19:42.001 race | 20:11.003 races | +2.45% |
| David Yu | 2024 | 23:17.001 race | 23:52.001 race | +2.51% |
| Chase Bellamy | 2024 | 19:15.001 race | 19:44.001 race | +2.51% |
| Sophie Kelly | 2023 | 24:07.001 race | 24:44.003 races | +2.56% |
| Caleb Gartner | 2019 | 17:25.003 races | 17:52.001 race | +2.58% |
| Jerry Zhang | 2023 | 32:09.001 race | 32:59.002 races | +2.59% |
| Stephanie Mo | 2024 | 27:24.001 race | 28:07.001 race | +2.62% |
| Liam Warren | 2024 | 18:19.001 race | 18:48.001 race | +2.64% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2024 | 17:02.001 race | 17:29.001 race | +2.64% |
| Emma Xi | 2024 | 25:41.001 race | 26:23.001 race | +2.73% |
| Zachary Lim | 2024 | 25:01.001 race | 25:42.001 race | +2.73% |
| Sarah Ku | 2024 | 26:48.001 race | 27:33.001 race | +2.80% |
| Lucy Bonner | 2025 | 23:49.001 race | 24:29.003 races | +2.80% |
| Aditya Shrivastava | 2025 | 20:42.001 race | 21:19.002 races | +2.98% |
| Matthew Smith | 2023 | 22:21.001 race | 23:03.001 race | +3.13% |
| Emily Geist | 2023 | 28:26.001 race | 29:21.003 races | +3.22% |
| Tori Duckworth | 2019 | 24:44.001 race | 25:33.001 race | +3.30% |
| Molly Madigan | 2019 | 24:22.001 race | 25:13.001 race | +3.49% |
| Gardner Brown | 2019 | 22:48.001 race | 23:36.001 race | +3.51% |
| Henry Horvath | 2019 | 20:53.002 races | 21:37.001 race | +3.51% |
| Josh Taylor | 2025 | 22:02.001 race | 22:51.002 races | +3.71% |
| Alex Costantio | 2019 | 23:28.001 race | 24:21.001 race | +3.76% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 2025 | 21:38.001 race | 22:27.002 races | +3.78% |
| Griffin Jones | 2021 | 18:38.001 race | 19:21.001 race | +3.85% |
| Ella McDonald | 2025 | 21:04.001 race | 21:54.003 races | +3.96% |
| Izzy Hall | 2024 | 24:04.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +4.09% |
| Dylan Uttam | 2025 | 20:19.001 race | 21:09.002 races | +4.10% |
| Max Rochford | 2025 | 22:56.001 race | 23:56.002 races | +4.36% |
| Stone Shen | 2019 | 19:52.002 races | 20:48.001 race | +4.70% |
| Peter Gnazzo | 2023 | 24:15.001 race | 25:24.001 race | +4.74% |
| Connor Keleher | 2025 | 21:17.001 race | 22:22.002 races | +5.09% |
| Sophie Kelly | 2025 | 26:53.001 race | 28:18.002 races | +5.27% |
| Kevin Yao | 2023 | 20:39.001 race | 21:45.003 races | +5.33% |
| Sydney Nelson | 2024 | 24:05.001 race | 25:26.001 race | +5.61% |
| Margot Beaumont-Mill | 2025 | 24:51.001 race | 26:19.003 races | +5.90% |
| Gabriela Coates | 2024 | 24:07.001 race | 25:33.001 race | +5.94% |
| Heloise Langlais | 2025 | 28:15.001 race | 29:58.003 races | +6.08% |
| Jason Fan | 2025 | 23:07.001 race | 24:32.002 races | +6.13% |
| Jillian Bergeron | 2023 | 20:43.001 race | 22:00.002 races | +6.19% |
| Willow Dixon | 2025 | 26:48.001 race | 28:28.002 races | +6.22% |
| Eleanor Mayer | 2019 | 27:42.001 race | 29:27.001 race | +6.32% |
| Raymond Li | 2019 | 21:48.002 races | 23:11.001 race | +6.35% |
| Anthony Coston | 2023 | 22:24.001 race | 23:51.001 race | +6.47% |
| Lucas Miller | 2023 | 18:53.001 race | 20:07.001 race | +6.53% |
| Sophie Kopp-Hills | 2024 | 30:15.001 race | 32:15.001 race | +6.61% |
| Julian Dai | 2019 | 22:52.002 races | 24:36.001 race | +7.58% |
| Nelson Li | 2025 | 25:19.001 race | 27:15.003 races | +7.64% |
| Maxwell Rothman | 2024 | 23:32.001 race | 25:20.001 race | +7.65% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 20:22.001 race | 22:00.002 races | +8.02% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2021 | 27:56.001 race | 31:43.001 race | +13.54% |
| Myles McCusker | 2023 | 23:28.001 race | 34:06.001 race | +45.31% |