Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.LA 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
LA 5K Course runs slower
+1.12%
Roughly 13.4 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
42
Strong evidence
Median difference
-0.33%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.12%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.29%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-3.33% to +0.39%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | LA 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Jin | 2019 | 35:28.001 race | 26:21.001 race | -25.70% |
| James Palumbo | 2025 | 24:11.001 race | 21:12.001 race | -12.34% |
| Sam Kim | 2019 | 29:48.001 race | 26:44.001 race | -10.29% |
| Ryan Li | 2025 | 24:36.001 race | 22:30.001 race | -8.54% |
| Alex Tobias | 2019 | 20:23.001 race | 18:50.001 race | -7.60% |
| William Trautz | 2025 | 17:04.001 race | 16:01.001 race | -6.15% |
| James Lyman | 2019 | 23:08.001 race | 21:46.001 race | -5.91% |
| Oliver Kim | 2019 | 29:55.001 race | 28:49.001 race | -3.68% |
| Minho Eune | 2019 | 23:12.001 race | 22:21.001 race | -3.66% |
| Declan Woolbert | 2025 | 18:51.001 race | 18:10.001 race | -3.63% |
| Jonathan Demosthene | 2022 | 21:34.001 race | 20:50.001 race | -3.40% |
| Adam Jac | 2019 | 23:47.001 race | 23:02.001 race | -3.15% |
| Joe Zhao | 2019 | 26:20.001 race | 25:40.001 race | -2.53% |
| Chris Thompson | 2022 | 20:02.001 race | 19:41.001 race | -1.75% |
| William Hansen | 2022 | 20:21.001 race | 20:02.001 race | -1.56% |
| Timothy Snail | 2025 | 18:57.001 race | 18:40.001 race | -1.50% |
| Michael Kalinichenko | 2022 | 26:11.001 race | 25:50.001 race | -1.34% |
| Miles Keller | 2025 | 19:04.001 race | 18:53.001 race | -0.96% |
| Liam Gavin | 2022 | 21:03.001 race | 20:54.001 race | -0.71% |
| Eleanor Mayer | 2019 | 27:42.001 race | 27:34.001 race | -0.48% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2025 | 18:08.001 race | 18:04.001 race | -0.37% |
| Jack Connors | 2022 | 17:42.001 race | 17:39.001 race | -0.28% |
| Molly Madigan | 2019 | 24:22.001 race | 24:18.001 race | -0.27% |
| Tori Duckworth | 2019 | 24:44.001 race | 24:40.001 race | -0.27% |
| Eddie Zhang | 2022 | 21:37.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +0.23% |
| Suhas Kaniyar | 2025 | 25:17.001 race | 25:23.001 race | +0.40% |
| Gardner Brown | 2019 | 22:48.001 race | 22:56.001 race | +0.58% |
| John Pena | 2025 | 23:22.001 race | 23:33.001 race | +0.78% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2025 | 17:37.001 race | 17:49.001 race | +1.14% |
| John Joyce | 2022 | 17:52.001 race | 18:08.001 race | +1.49% |
| Evan Salhanick | 2019 | 21:24.001 race | 21:44.001 race | +1.56% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2022 | 18:01.001 race | 18:21.001 race | +1.85% |
| Nashr El Auliya | 2019 | 21:19.001 race | 21:43.001 race | +1.88% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2021 | 19:03.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +2.27% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2022 | 18:24.001 race | 18:50.001 race | +2.36% |
| Eita Fuse | 2025 | 18:14.001 race | 18:44.001 race | +2.74% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 19:06.001 race | 19:59.001 race | +4.62% |
| James Donahue | 2021 | 16:06.001 race | 16:53.001 race | +4.87% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 19:23.001 race | 20:21.001 race | +4.99% |
| William Trautz | 2021 | 18:30.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +5.41% |
| Thomas Romney | 2021 | 19:07.001 race | 20:16.001 race | +6.02% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2021 | 19:06.001 race | 20:38.001 race | +8.03% |