Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.St. Sebastian's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Sebastian's 5K Course runs slower
+2.07%
Roughly 24.8 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
36
Developing evidence
Median difference
+1.32%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+2.07%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.04%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-0.12% to +3.29%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Palumbo | 2025 | 24:11.001 race | 21:57.001 race | -9.24% |
| Liam Gavin | 2023 | 22:50.001 race | 21:46.001 race | -4.67% |
| Luis Sosa Espinal | 2023 | 22:48.001 race | 22:01.001 race | -3.44% |
| William Trautz | 2025 | 17:04.001 race | 16:31.001 race | -3.22% |
| John Pena | 2025 | 23:22.001 race | 22:38.001 race | -3.14% |
| Eddie Zhang | 2023 | 22:32.001 race | 21:53.001 race | -2.88% |
| Abner Machuca Diaz | 2023 | 22:12.001 race | 21:34.001 race | -2.85% |
| Joseph Koh | 2023 | 21:08.001 race | 20:34.001 race | -2.68% |
| Elan Libman | 2025 | 24:22.001 race | 23:58.001 race | -1.64% |
| Andrew Gilmore | 2025 | 24:22.001 race | 23:59.001 race | -1.57% |
| Shea McDonnell | 2025 | 22:46.001 race | 22:26.001 race | -1.46% |
| Jack Connors | 2023 | 18:06.001 race | 17:55.001 race | -1.01% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2023 | 18:13.001 race | 18:12.001 race | -0.09% |
| Taylor Holmes | 2023 | 20:29.001 race | 20:30.001 race | +0.08% |
| Thomas Devlin | 2022 | 22:00.001 race | 22:02.001 race | +0.15% |
| Jonathan Demosthene | 2023 | 21:06.001 race | 21:14.001 race | +0.63% |
| Chris Thompson | 2023 | 19:48.001 race | 19:58.001 race | +0.84% |
| Michael Kalinichenko | 2022 | 26:11.001 race | 26:28.001 race | +1.08% |
| William Hansen | 2022 | 20:21.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +1.56% |
| Miles Keller | 2025 | 19:04.001 race | 19:22.001 race | +1.57% |
| Timothy Snail | 2025 | 18:57.001 race | 19:15.001 race | +1.58% |
| Jonathan Demosthene | 2022 | 21:34.001 race | 22:03.001 race | +2.24% |
| Eddie Zhang | 2022 | 21:37.001 race | 22:12.001 race | +2.70% |
| Alexander Wasynczuk | 2023 | 20:26.001 race | 21:00.001 race | +2.77% |
| Chris Thompson | 2022 | 20:02.001 race | 20:39.001 race | +3.08% |
| Jack Connors | 2022 | 17:42.001 race | 18:16.001 race | +3.20% |
| John Joyce | 2023 | 17:05.001 race | 17:38.001 race | +3.22% |
| John Joyce | 2022 | 17:52.001 race | 18:33.001 race | +3.82% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2022 | 18:01.001 race | 18:44.001 race | +3.98% |
| Liam Gavin | 2022 | 21:03.001 race | 21:57.001 race | +4.28% |
| Eita Fuse | 2025 | 18:14.001 race | 19:01.001 race | +4.30% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2025 | 18:08.001 race | 19:03.001 race | +5.06% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2022 | 18:24.001 race | 19:48.001 race | +7.61% |
| Declan Woolbert | 2025 | 18:51.001 race | 20:40.001 race | +9.64% |
| Suhas Kaniyar | 2025 | 25:17.001 race | 29:38.001 race | +17.21% |
| Adrian Chen | 2025 | 28:50.001 race | 34:14.001 race | +18.73% |