Pairwise course analysis

Milton Standard 5Kvs.Hotchkiss School 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Hotchkiss School 5K runs slower

+0.37%

Roughly 4.4 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

27

Developing evidence

Median difference

+0.09%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+0.37%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.10%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Hotchkiss School 5K fasterEvenHotchkiss School 5K slower

Confidence interval

-1.18% to +0.92%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonMilton Standard 5KHotchkiss School 5KDifference
Molly Sheehan202423:53.002 races22:16.001 race-6.77%
Margot Murphy-Hara202424:35.002 races23:36.001 race-4.00%
Jessie Shi202424:34.002 races23:39.001 race-3.73%
Emmett Burghardt202420:31.002 races19:49.001 race-3.41%
Kailyn Love202422:57.002 races22:15.001 race-3.05%
Emilia Raviola202423:34.002 races22:56.001 race-2.69%
Isaac Wu202421:25.002 races20:54.001 race-2.41%
Torey Mathews202425:40.001 race25:22.001 race-1.17%
Haotong Xue202418:06.002 races17:56.001 race-0.92%
Zifu Song202421:24.002 races21:21.001 race-0.23%
Elizabeth De Ramel202422:12.002 races22:10.001 race-0.15%
Will Frazier202419:40.002 races19:39.001 race-0.08%
Felix Stuart202420:18.002 races20:17.001 race-0.08%
Armand Matijasevic202419:35.002 races19:36.001 race+0.09%
Theodore Choe202417:32.002 races17:33.001 race+0.10%
Alex Sherman202419:32.002 races19:39.001 race+0.60%
Jason Louie202418:14.002 races18:24.001 race+0.91%
Mira Anmeng Lu202424:37.002 races24:52.001 race+1.02%
Jace LiVigni202418:11.002 races18:24.001 race+1.19%
Hudson Li202420:43.002 races20:58.001 race+1.21%
Joe Jia202420:41.002 races20:57.001 race+1.29%
Kailin Shi202424:24.002 races24:46.001 race+1.50%
Ching Hei (Andre) Leung202421:18.002 races21:42.001 race+1.88%
Esme Campbell202419:32.002 races20:01.001 race+2.47%
Emlyn Joseph202419:28.002 races20:03.001 race+3.00%
Dion Cheung202424:39.002 races25:38.001 race+3.99%
Gratian Ting202419:56.002 races21:17.001 race+6.77%