Pairwise course analysis
Milton Standard 5Kvs.Nobles NEPSTA Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Nobles NEPSTA Course runs faster
-0.45%
Roughly 5.4 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
22
Developing evidence
Median difference
-0.86%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-0.45%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.96%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-2.26% to +0.19%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Milton Standard 5K | Nobles NEPSTA Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Sweeney | 2019 | 19:12.001 race | 17:56.001 race | -6.60% |
| Maggie Xu | 2019 | 30:12.001 race | 28:41.001 race | -5.02% |
| Ross Stewart | 2019 | 19:12.001 race | 18:24.001 race | -4.17% |
| Alex Szynal | 2019 | 27:56.001 race | 26:51.001 race | -3.88% |
| Grace Martin | 2019 | 24:31.001 race | 23:34.001 race | -3.87% |
| Bart Lojanarungsiri | 2019 | 22:52.001 race | 22:12.001 race | -2.92% |
| Dung Pham | 2019 | 23:53.001 race | 23:12.001 race | -2.86% |
| Abdel Barakat | 2019 | 19:20.001 race | 18:49.001 race | -2.67% |
| Drew Kirk | 2019 | 18:55.001 race | 18:28.001 race | -2.38% |
| Tony Guo | 2019 | 20:26.001 race | 19:58.001 race | -2.28% |
| Andrew Mottur | 2019 | 17:28.001 race | 17:19.001 race | -0.86% |
| Sam Poulin | 2019 | 19:29.001 race | 19:19.001 race | -0.86% |
| Nathan Anderson | 2019 | 18:19.001 race | 18:12.001 race | -0.64% |
| Jack Hutchison | 2019 | 18:09.001 race | 18:08.001 race | -0.09% |
| Calvin Cochran | 2019 | 19:48.001 race | 19:52.001 race | +0.34% |
| Ellie Gable | 2019 | 25:14.001 race | 25:28.001 race | +0.92% |
| Mahiro Yamikawa | 2019 | 17:33.001 race | 17:43.001 race | +0.95% |
| Jerry Sang | 2019 | 25:19.001 race | 25:42.001 race | +1.51% |
| Lily Manley | 2019 | 25:07.001 race | 25:49.001 race | +2.79% |
| Zach Rogers | 2019 | 19:04.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +3.23% |
| Izzy Cheney | 2019 | 22:29.001 race | 23:17.001 race | +3.56% |
| Aila McEnroe | 2019 | 27:29.001 race | 28:32.001 race | +3.82% |