Pairwise course analysis

Milton Standard 5Kvs.Rock Meadow 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Rock Meadow 5K runs slower

+2.35%

Roughly 28.2 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

Strong evidence

Median difference

+2.50%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+2.35%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.41%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Rock Meadow 5K fasterEvenRock Meadow 5K slower

Confidence interval

+1.59% to +3.36%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

Milton Standard 5K

5,000 meters

Compared course

Rock Meadow 5K

5,000 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

Runner	Season	Milton Standard 5K	Rock Meadow 5K	Difference
Jonathan Tillen	2022	23:07.001 race	20:23.001 race	-11.82%
Maksim Roman	2023	19:03.001 race	18:45.001 race	-1.57%
Angus Harrison	2023	19:32.001 race	19:15.001 race	-1.45%
Arnav Harve	2022	19:19.001 race	19:06.001 race	-1.12%
Devin Gray	2022	20:41.001 race	20:35.001 race	-0.48%
Duncan Kilbride	2023	20:49.001 race	20:50.001 race	+0.08%
Adrian Tan	2023	26:08.001 race	26:10.001 race	+0.13%
Alexandre White	2023	21:19.001 race	21:26.001 race	+0.55%
Jackson Pagan	2023	19:31.001 race	19:38.001 race	+0.60%
Luke Hotra	2022	20:55.001 race	21:06.001 race	+0.88%
Miles Sandoski	2023	17:42.001 race	17:52.001 race	+0.94%
Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo	2023	20:51.001 race	21:03.001 race	+0.96%
Justin Lee	2022	20:35.001 race	20:48.001 race	+1.05%
Davis Woolbert	2023	17:56.001 race	18:09.001 race	+1.21%
Oliver Burstein	2022	20:39.001 race	20:55.001 race	+1.29%
Jerry Qin	2022	19:39.001 race	20:02.001 race	+1.95%
Fitz Courtney	2023	17:34.001 race	17:56.001 race	+2.09%
Eita Fuse	2023	17:31.001 race	17:53.001 race	+2.09%
Colin Anderson	2022	19:44.001 race	20:09.001 race	+2.11%
Nathaniel Voss	2023	17:43.001 race	18:06.001 race	+2.16%
William Trautz	2023	17:32.001 race	17:55.001 race	+2.19%
Yamin Ibrahim	2023	18:53.001 race	19:18.001 race	+2.21%
Calvin Pagan	2023	22:13.001 race	22:44.001 race	+2.33%
George Carroll	2023	19:38.001 race	20:07.001 race	+2.46%
Vincent Mezzanotte	2023	20:02.001 race	20:32.001 race	+2.50%
Ben Owusu-Amo	2022	21:43.001 race	22:17.001 race	+2.61%
Carver Porter	2023	19:34.001 race	20:06.001 race	+2.73%
Om Paithankar	2022	21:53.001 race	22:29.001 race	+2.74%
Timothy Snail	2023	18:38.001 race	19:10.001 race	+2.86%
Andrew Bittner	2023	20:34.001 race	21:11.001 race	+3.00%
Lev Tolkoff	2023	22:18.001 race	23:05.001 race	+3.51%
Chris Tillen	2022	20:16.001 race	21:02.001 race	+3.78%
Mark Price	2023	23:12.001 race	24:05.001 race	+3.81%
Emilio Manz	2022	19:27.001 race	20:12.001 race	+3.86%
Rhett Curtis	2023	21:47.001 race	22:41.001 race	+4.13%
Ian Schmidek	2023	24:19.001 race	25:21.001 race	+4.25%
John Pena	2023	22:58.001 race	24:00.001 race	+4.50%
Ethan Train	2022	19:25.001 race	20:18.001 race	+4.55%
Zach Green	2022	20:33.001 race	21:30.001 race	+4.62%
Thomas Xue	2022	21:48.001 race	22:51.001 race	+4.82%
Tobias Jonas	2023	23:05.001 race	24:13.001 race	+4.91%
Jonas Wilderman	2022	19:37.001 race	20:36.001 race	+5.01%
Jack Kastner	2023	20:13.001 race	21:15.001 race	+5.11%
Abdirizak Abdulle	2022	22:15.001 race	23:27.001 race	+5.39%
Josh Levine	2022	22:50.001 race	24:05.001 race	+5.47%
William Achtmeyer	2023	20:48.001 race	21:59.001 race	+5.69%
Ethan Burack	2022	21:45.001 race	23:05.001 race	+6.13%
Matthew Loose	2022	19:11.001 race	20:33.001 race	+7.12%
Jeffrey Liu	2022	23:22.001 race	25:33.001 race	+9.34%