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Pairwise course analysis

Noble and Greenough School 5Kvs.Andover 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Andover 5K runs faster

-5.86%

Roughly 1:10 faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

46

Strong evidence

Median difference

-6.33%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-5.86%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+2.46%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Andover 5K fasterEvenAndover 5K slower

Confidence interval

-6.79% to -4.97%

Scale shown

-8% to +8%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

Noble and Greenough School 5K

5,000 meters

Compared course

Andover 5K

5,000 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonNoble and Greenough School 5KAndover 5KDifference
Isabel Pavloniss202130:54.001 race26:55.001 race-12.89%
Elliot Smith202122:15.001 race19:53.001 race-10.64%
Zoe Campbell202123:12.001 race20:46.001 race-10.49%
Louis Chiasson202121:34.001 race19:44.001 race-8.50%
Matthew Abati202121:30.001 race19:42.001 race-8.37%
Sofia Mraz202125:11.001 race23:05.001 race-8.34%
Rebecca Janfaza202128:05.003 races25:46.001 race-8.25%
Thomas Strong202121:01.001 race19:20.001 race-8.01%
Molly Sheehan202128:02.001 race25:55.001 race-7.55%
Alexander Cesaretti202121:27.001 race19:50.001 race-7.54%
Sam Dunn202119:02.001 race17:37.001 race-7.44%
Claire Mao202126:01.004 races24:05.001 race-7.43%
Kevin Farmer202122:14.001 race20:35.001 race-7.42%
Peter Leitzes202120:39.001 race19:09.001 race-7.26%
Victoria Fawcett202120:40.001 race19:10.001 race-7.26%
Ruby Tsai202125:59.001 race24:08.001 race-7.12%
Jacob (Coby) Mulliken202121:03.001 race19:36.001 race-6.89%
Lindsay Saunders202125:01.003 races23:19.001 race-6.80%
Julia Torrey202123:34.001 race21:58.001 race-6.79%
Evan Zhang202120:51.001 race19:29.001 race-6.55%
Brian Xi202121:12.001 race19:49.001 race-6.53%
Sofia Samuels202126:51.003 races25:07.001 race-6.46%
Alex Janower202128:22.005 races26:33.001 race-6.40%
Angie Feng202126:24.002 races24:45.001 race-6.25%
Kai On (Jason) Yu202121:09.001 race19:50.001 race-6.23%
Celia Cheng202121:44.004 races20:23.001 race-6.21%
Ryan Wei202119:00.001 race17:51.001 race-6.05%
Kate Wei202126:18.003 races24:43.001 race-6.02%
Sophie Majernik202124:07.004 races22:40.001 race-6.01%
Charlotte Hayward202122:26.005 races21:06.001 race-5.94%
Teddy Ellis202118:59.001 race17:53.001 race-5.79%
Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero202118:42.001 race17:39.001 race-5.61%
Kailin Shi202124:44.001 race23:23.001 race-5.46%
Ella Berger202125:53.004 races24:33.001 race-5.15%
Allison Park202125:34.004 races24:15.001 race-5.15%
Ellie Sullivan202126:58.001 race25:45.001 race-4.51%
Lara Poole202127:03.002 races25:55.001 race-4.19%
Lindsay Popeo202123:49.003 races22:50.001 race-4.13%
Connor Steele202119:29.001 race18:52.001 race-3.17%
Torey Mathews202126:30.001 race25:41.001 race-3.08%
James Good202122:00.001 race21:20.001 race-3.03%
Natalie Williamson202121:08.001 race20:38.001 race-2.37%
Sophia Lee202124:38.004 races24:13.001 race-1.69%
Akshaya Sundraraj202132:02.001 race32:07.001 race+0.26%
Claire Choe202123:14.001 race23:25.001 race+0.79%
Emma Skelly202124:55.003 races26:47.001 race+7.49%