Pairwise course analysis
Noble and Greenough School 5Kvs.Great Brook Farm 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Great Brook Farm 5K runs faster
-4.39%
Roughly 52.7 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
21
Developing evidence
Median difference
-5.59%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-4.39%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.49%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-6.60% to -4.65%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Noble and Greenough School 5K | Great Brook Farm 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Coston | 2021 | 26:58.001 race | 24:07.001 race | -10.57% |
| Matt Simon | 2021 | 23:44.001 race | 21:27.001 race | -9.62% |
| Pedro Almoguera Martinez | 2021 | 23:40.001 race | 21:30.001 race | -9.15% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2021 | 22:06.001 race | 20:20.001 race | -7.99% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 18:23.001 race | 17:15.001 race | -6.17% |
| Braeden Moitoso | 2021 | 20:25.001 race | 19:10.001 race | -6.12% |
| Nathalie Westpfahl | 2021 | 25:06.001 race | 23:34.001 race | -6.11% |
| Justin Jang | 2021 | 21:28.001 race | 20:14.001 race | -5.75% |
| Griffin Jones | 2021 | 18:59.001 race | 17:54.001 race | -5.71% |
| Joshua White | 2021 | 25:30.001 race | 24:03.001 race | -5.69% |
| Andrew Young | 2021 | 21:45.001 race | 20:32.001 race | -5.59% |
| Brandon Christ | 2021 | 20:05.001 race | 18:59.001 race | -5.48% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 20:54.001 race | 19:47.001 race | -5.34% |
| Cailyn Kim | 2021 | 32:00.001 race | 30:23.001 race | -5.05% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2021 | 21:54.001 race | 20:51.001 race | -4.79% |
| Matthew Smith | 2021 | 22:29.001 race | 21:38.001 race | -3.78% |
| Aaron Weiner | 2021 | 33:20.001 race | 32:06.001 race | -3.70% |
| Aidan Berger | 2021 | 20:36.001 race | 19:54.001 race | -3.40% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2021 | 29:47.001 race | 28:53.001 race | -3.02% |
| Camille Destefano | 2021 | 29:53.001 race | 29:00.001 race | -2.96% |
| Katherine Buckhout | 2021 | 23:56.001 race | 23:33.001 race | -1.60% |