Pairwise course analysis
Noble and Greenough School 5Kvs.Nobles NEPSTA Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Nobles NEPSTA Course runs faster
-5.34%
Roughly 1:04 faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
18
Developing evidence
Median difference
-4.89%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-5.34%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.15%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-6.00% to -4.07%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Noble and Greenough School 5K | Nobles NEPSTA Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Swords | 2019 | 21:43.003 races | 19:28.001 race | -10.36% |
| Patrick Denning | 2019 | 20:30.004 races | 18:51.001 race | -8.05% |
| Shawn Wu | 2019 | 21:13.004 races | 19:44.001 race | -6.99% |
| Niki Apostolicas | 2019 | 21:06.003 races | 19:52.001 race | -5.85% |
| Ethan Anderson | 2019 | 20:16.003 races | 19:05.001 race | -5.84% |
| Khalid Abdulle | 2019 | 20:55.003 races | 19:42.001 race | -5.82% |
| Finn Crawford | 2019 | 18:17.004 races | 17:14.001 race | -5.74% |
| Charlie Guerra | 2019 | 20:35.004 races | 19:31.001 race | -5.18% |
| Max Hall | 2019 | 19:43.004 races | 18:44.001 race | -4.99% |
| Arnav Harve | 2019 | 20:54.004 races | 19:54.001 race | -4.78% |
| Austin Qu | 2019 | 21:10.004 races | 20:12.001 race | -4.57% |
| Sam Jankey | 2019 | 21:38.004 races | 20:44.001 race | -4.16% |
| Chris Millay | 2019 | 19:50.004 races | 19:04.001 race | -3.87% |
| Andrew Kasparyan | 2019 | 19:47.004 races | 19:02.001 race | -3.79% |
| Max Gomez | 2019 | 19:04.004 races | 18:26.001 race | -3.32% |
| Carter Bartel | 2019 | 20:58.004 races | 20:19.001 race | -3.10% |
| Om Paithankar | 2019 | 21:27.004 races | 21:00.001 race | -2.10% |
| Justin Qin | 2019 | 18:42.004 races | 18:21.001 race | -1.87% |