Pairwise course analysis
Nobles NEPSTA Coursevs.LA 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
LA 5K Course runs slower
+4.26%
Roughly 51.1 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
17
Developing evidence
Median difference
+6.21%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+4.26%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.17%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+5.61% to +9.09%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Nobles NEPSTA Course | LA 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashua Poreda | 2019 | 21:44.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +2.84% |
| Lily Walsh | 2019 | 24:30.001 race | 25:14.001 race | +2.99% |
| Kendall Sommers | 2019 | 23:32.001 race | 24:21.001 race | +3.47% |
| Eve Elkins | 2019 | 23:55.001 race | 24:55.001 race | +4.18% |
| Emily Taylor | 2019 | 23:45.001 race | 24:55.001 race | +4.91% |
| Ingrid Yeung | 2019 | 24:17.001 race | 25:33.001 race | +5.22% |
| Judy Xie | 2019 | 22:07.001 race | 23:17.001 race | +5.28% |
| Charlie Poulin | 2019 | 26:32.001 race | 28:01.001 race | +5.59% |
| Aitong (Ivy) Li | 2019 | 24:58.001 race | 26:31.001 race | +6.21% |
| Princess Alexander | 2019 | 24:58.001 race | 26:47.001 race | +7.28% |
| Andria Bao | 2019 | 25:00.001 race | 27:10.001 race | +8.67% |
| Naila Strong | 2019 | 23:59.001 race | 26:05.001 race | +8.76% |
| Ashley Battiata | 2019 | 24:56.001 race | 27:15.001 race | +9.29% |
| Lindsay Davis | 2019 | 22:17.001 race | 24:42.001 race | +10.85% |
| Paula Hornbostel | 2019 | 25:48.001 race | 28:50.001 race | +11.76% |
| Daniela Ortiz | 2019 | 22:55.001 race | 25:57.001 race | +13.24% |
| Marianne Lyons | 2019 | 24:51.001 race | 28:38.001 race | +15.22% |