Pairwise course analysis
RL 5K Coursevs.St. Paul's School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Paul's School 5K runs faster
-3.82%
Roughly 45.8 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
17
Developing evidence
Median difference
-2.90%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-3.82%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.83%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-5.17% to -2.49%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | RL 5K Course | St. Paul's School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathilde Senter | 2022 | 28:01.001 race | 25:35.001 race | -8.69% |
| Lara Poole | 2022 | 28:36.001 race | 26:18.001 race | -8.04% |
| Riley Gordon | 2022 | 25:55.001 race | 24:01.001 race | -7.33% |
| Maya Vernazza | 2022 | 24:25.001 race | 22:54.001 race | -6.21% |
| Lia Gavin | 2022 | 24:26.001 race | 22:56.001 race | -6.14% |
| Clare Struzziery | 2022 | 24:12.001 race | 23:02.001 race | -4.82% |
| Ella Berger | 2022 | 26:32.001 race | 25:17.001 race | -4.71% |
| Kajsa Harrington | 2022 | 25:55.001 race | 24:59.001 race | -3.60% |
| Charlotte Hayward | 2022 | 23:00.001 race | 22:20.001 race | -2.90% |
| Mara Dubois | 2022 | 26:58.001 race | 26:12.001 race | -2.84% |
| Annie Lopez | 2022 | 26:15.001 race | 25:33.001 race | -2.67% |
| Ava Kocher | 2022 | 26:00.001 race | 25:20.001 race | -2.56% |
| Emilie Andrews | 2022 | 26:15.001 race | 25:35.001 race | -2.54% |
| Sophie Majernik | 2022 | 24:27.001 race | 24:01.001 race | -1.77% |
| Angie Feng | 2022 | 26:16.001 race | 25:58.001 race | -1.14% |
| Brenna Thomas | 2022 | 25:03.001 race | 25:00.001 race | -0.20% |
| Natalia Calvillo | 2022 | 23:23.001 race | 23:45.001 race | +1.57% |