Pairwise course analysis

Rock Meadow 5Kvs.Middlesex 5K Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Middlesex 5K Course runs slower

+0.29%

Roughly 3.4 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

26

Developing evidence

Median difference

+2.30%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+0.29%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+1.99%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Middlesex 5K Course fasterEvenMiddlesex 5K Course slower

Confidence interval

-0.43% to +3.51%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonRock Meadow 5KMiddlesex 5K CourseDifference
Jackson Hurd202324:32.001 race19:51.001 race-19.09%
Jack Kastner202321:15.001 race20:45.001 race-2.35%
Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo202321:03.001 race20:50.001 race-1.03%
Miles Sandoski202317:52.001 race17:48.001 race-0.37%
Duncan Kilbride202320:50.001 race20:48.001 race-0.16%
Nathaniel Voss202318:06.001 race18:16.001 race+0.92%
Maksim Roman202318:45.001 race19:03.001 race+1.60%
William Achtmeyer202321:59.001 race22:21.001 race+1.67%
Yamin Ibrahim202319:18.001 race19:38.001 race+1.73%
Fitz Courtney202317:56.001 race18:15.001 race+1.77%
Timothy Snail202319:10.001 race19:31.001 race+1.83%
Eita Fuse202317:53.001 race18:15.001 race+2.05%
Vincent Mezzanotte202320:32.001 race21:00.001 race+2.27%
Carver Porter202320:06.001 race20:34.001 race+2.32%
Alexandre White202321:26.001 race21:58.001 race+2.49%
George Carroll202320:07.001 race20:40.001 race+2.73%
Andrew Bittner202321:11.001 race21:47.001 race+2.83%
William Trautz202317:55.001 race18:27.001 race+2.98%
John Pena202324:00.001 race24:51.001 race+3.54%
Davis Woolbert202318:09.001 race18:49.001 race+3.67%
Jackson Pagan202319:38.001 race20:22.001 race+3.74%
Calvin Pagan202322:44.001 race23:52.001 race+4.99%
Ethan Xie202320:43.001 race21:49.001 race+5.31%
Adrian Tan202326:10.001 race27:35.001 race+5.41%
Rhett Curtis202322:41.001 race24:00.001 race+5.80%
Angus Harrison202319:15.001 race20:24.001 race+5.97%