Pairwise course analysis
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5Kvs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs slower
+0.61%
Roughly 7.3 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
29
Developing evidence
Median difference
+2.75%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.61%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.86%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+1.69% to +4.16%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2024 | 19:28.001 race | 18:59.001 race | -2.48% |
| Alex Chen | 2024 | 21:46.001 race | 21:29.001 race | -1.30% |
| Jack Kastner | 2024 | 21:26.001 race | 21:13.001 race | -1.01% |
| Alexandre White | 2024 | 21:21.001 race | 21:13.001 race | -0.62% |
| Brendan Kilpatrick | 2024 | 22:57.001 race | 22:52.001 race | -0.36% |
| William Trautz | 2024 | 16:52.001 race | 16:51.001 race | -0.10% |
| John Pena | 2024 | 20:44.001 race | 20:47.001 race | +0.24% |
| Eita Fuse | 2024 | 17:58.001 race | 18:04.001 race | +0.56% |
| Ethan Xie | 2024 | 21:28.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +0.93% |
| Timothy Snail | 2024 | 18:17.001 race | 18:30.001 race | +1.19% |
| Eita Fuse | 2025 | 17:54.001 race | 18:14.001 race | +1.86% |
| Ryan Chang-Wu | 2024 | 23:57.001 race | 24:24.001 race | +1.88% |
| William Trautz | 2025 | 16:40.001 race | 17:04.001 race | +2.40% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2025 | 17:11.001 race | 17:37.001 race | +2.52% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2024 | 17:33.001 race | 18:02.001 race | +2.75% |
| Timothy Snail | 2025 | 18:25.001 race | 18:57.001 race | +2.90% |
| John Pena | 2025 | 22:39.001 race | 23:22.001 race | +3.16% |
| Miles Keller | 2025 | 18:19.001 race | 19:04.001 race | +4.09% |
| Johannes Eikeboom | 2024 | 20:19.001 race | 21:09.001 race | +4.10% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2025 | 17:24.001 race | 18:08.001 race | +4.21% |
| George Carroll | 2024 | 20:10.001 race | 21:03.001 race | +4.38% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2024 | 17:16.001 race | 18:02.001 race | +4.44% |
| Suhas Kaniyar | 2025 | 24:10.001 race | 25:17.001 race | +4.62% |
| Declan Woolbert | 2025 | 17:59.001 race | 18:51.001 race | +4.82% |
| Shea McDonnell | 2025 | 21:40.001 race | 22:46.001 race | +5.08% |
| Ryan Li | 2025 | 23:18.001 race | 24:36.001 race | +5.58% |
| Andrew Gilmore | 2025 | 22:41.001 race | 24:22.001 race | +7.42% |
| James Palumbo | 2025 | 22:25.001 race | 24:11.001 race | +7.88% |
| Adrian Chen | 2025 | 25:03.001 race | 28:50.001 race | +15.10% |