Pairwise course analysis
Rock Meadow Short Loop 5Kvs.St. Georges 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Georges 5K runs slower
+0.43%
Roughly 5.1 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
42
Strong evidence
Median difference
-4.58%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.43%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.53%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-6.76% to -2.36%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Rock Meadow Short Loop 5K | St. Georges 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Lai | 2019 | 37:41.001 race | 27:45.001 race | -26.36% |
| Andrew Porter | 2019 | 26:34.001 race | 22:19.001 race | -16.00% |
| Jeremy Gall | 2019 | 26:38.001 race | 22:30.001 race | -15.52% |
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 27:26.001 race | 24:04.001 race | -12.27% |
| Zhining Zhao | 2019 | 26:33.001 race | 23:18.001 race | -12.24% |
| Tyler Weisberg | 2019 | 21:02.001 race | 18:39.001 race | -11.33% |
| Tyler Santana | 2019 | 27:20.001 race | 24:41.001 race | -9.70% |
| Griffin Johnson | 2019 | 22:23.001 race | 20:32.001 race | -8.27% |
| Kaiden Thomas | 2019 | 25:24.001 race | 23:19.001 race | -8.20% |
| Charles Stevenson | 2019 | 26:17.001 race | 24:14.001 race | -7.80% |
| Alan Du | 2019 | 20:30.001 race | 18:58.001 race | -7.48% |
| Oliver Ye | 2019 | 24:10.001 race | 22:22.001 race | -7.45% |
| Lawrence Li | 2019 | 21:10.001 race | 19:41.001 race | -7.01% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 22:08.001 race | 20:35.001 race | -7.00% |
| Noah Bay | 2019 | 20:33.001 race | 19:12.001 race | -6.57% |
| Sam Harris | 2019 | 23:41.001 race | 22:08.001 race | -6.54% |
| Andrew Mazza | 2019 | 19:31.001 race | 18:30.001 race | -5.21% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 21:42.001 race | 20:36.001 race | -5.07% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 22:09.001 race | 21:03.001 race | -4.97% |
| Ryder Cavanagh | 2019 | 19:42.001 race | 18:46.001 race | -4.74% |
| Vivan Das | 2019 | 21:03.001 race | 20:05.001 race | -4.59% |
| Aidan Armaly | 2019 | 23:02.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -4.56% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 21:40.001 race | 20:44.001 race | -4.31% |
| Derek Chang | 2019 | 19:15.001 race | 18:26.001 race | -4.24% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 20:04.001 race | 19:16.001 race | -3.99% |
| Ryan Cannistraro | 2019 | 27:47.001 race | 26:41.001 race | -3.96% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 19:10.001 race | 18:33.001 race | -3.22% |
| Robert Hong | 2019 | 22:52.001 race | 22:11.001 race | -2.99% |
| Charles Mullaney | 2019 | 21:41.001 race | 21:12.001 race | -2.23% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 23:01.001 race | 22:32.001 race | -2.10% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 22:47.001 race | 22:26.001 race | -1.54% |
| Michael Lu | 2019 | 22:41.001 race | 22:22.001 race | -1.40% |
| Riley Eyman | 2022 | 22:16.001 race | 22:10.003 races | -0.45% |
| Jake Pappo | 2019 | 21:23.001 race | 21:20.001 race | -0.23% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 22:55.001 race | 22:52.001 race | -0.22% |
| Grant Vensel | 2022 | 20:20.001 race | 20:56.002 races | +2.95% |
| Jonathan Cajamarca | 2022 | 19:30.001 race | 20:05.003 races | +2.99% |
| Henry Liu | 2022 | 35:57.001 race | 37:22.002 races | +3.94% |
| Winston Yeung | 2022 | 26:39.001 race | 28:15.002 races | +6.00% |
| James McCarron III | 2022 | 16:21.001 race | 17:26.003 races | +6.63% |
| Leo Gu | 2022 | 21:37.001 race | 24:01.003 races | +11.10% |
| Ryan Growney | 2022 | 18:58.001 race | 21:46.003 races | +14.76% |