Pairwise course analysis
St. Georges 5Kvs.Groton School
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Groton School runs faster
-2.88%
Roughly 34.6 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
227
Deep evidence
Median difference
-2.72%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-2.88%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.33%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Groton School fasterEvenGroton School slower
Confidence interval
-3.66% to -2.39%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Georges 5K | Groton School | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxwell Rothman | 2022 | 43:04.001 race | 26:58.002 races | -37.38% |
| Ethan Yan | 2023 | 33:22.001 race | 28:41.003 races | -14.04% |
| Branford Chen | 2025 | 24:05.003 races | 20:43.001 race | -13.98% |
| Charlie Zhang | 2022 | 27:34.001 race | 24:03.001 race | -12.76% |
| Sarah Ku | 2022 | 33:01.001 race | 28:49.002 races | -12.72% |
| Miles Johnson | 2025 | 26:37.001 race | 23:16.001 race | -12.59% |
| Emmett Kellogg | 2025 | 28:02.001 race | 24:34.001 race | -12.37% |
| Lang Burgess | 2019 | 28:02.001 race | 24:54.003 races | -11.18% |
| Rinto Nakazawa | 2025 | 26:15.001 race | 23:22.001 race | -10.98% |
| Neela Soni | 2025 | 28:58.002 races | 25:49.001 race | -10.87% |
| Emelie Engstrom | 2019 | 30:50.001 race | 27:29.001 race | -10.86% |
| Aryan Mago | 2022 | 24:58.001 race | 22:16.003 races | -10.81% |
| Maia Soni | 2025 | 26:44.003 races | 23:57.001 race | -10.41% |
| Zhining Zhao | 2019 | 23:18.001 race | 20:54.001 race | -10.30% |
| Cameron Regonini | 2025 | 23:42.001 race | 21:26.001 race | -9.56% |
| Alan Wang | 2025 | 25:47.001 race | 23:29.001 race | -8.92% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2022 | 24:46.001 race | 22:35.001 race | -8.82% |
| Lucy Walker | 2025 | 22:29.003 races | 20:32.001 race | -8.67% |
| Sophia Deng | 2019 | 27:21.001 race | 25:00.003 races | -8.59% |
| Claire Hackel | 2025 | 22:57.003 races | 20:59.001 race | -8.57% |
| John Friedmann | 2025 | 25:16.002 races | 23:10.001 race | -8.31% |
| Sarah Hastings | 2019 | 28:04.001 race | 25:45.001 race | -8.25% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2022 | 24:10.001 race | 22:20.001 race | -7.59% |
| Peter Gnazzo | 2025 | 24:55.002 races | 23:02.001 race | -7.56% |
| Jack Wang | 2021 | 19:33.001 race | 18:06.003 races | -7.42% |
| Ella Cuccia | 2025 | 24:11.002 races | 22:24.001 race | -7.37% |
| Yeabsira Gugssa | 2019 | 26:50.001 race | 24:52.003 races | -7.33% |
| Owen Cronan | 2022 | 22:42.001 race | 21:03.002 races | -7.27% |
| Julia Wang | 2022 | 28:03.001 race | 26:04.001 race | -7.07% |
| Aidan Armaly | 2021 | 21:52.001 race | 20:22.003 races | -6.86% |
| George Yerid | 2025 | 23:13.002 races | 21:38.001 race | -6.82% |
| Jeffrey Wu | 2023 | 23:30.001 race | 21:56.003 races | -6.67% |
| Somers Estwanik | 2025 | 22:04.003 races | 20:36.001 race | -6.65% |
| Anders Caspersen | 2022 | 21:00.001 race | 19:37.002 races | -6.59% |
| Owen Wang | 2019 | 23:05.001 race | 21:34.001 race | -6.57% |
| Myles McCusker | 2025 | 21:25.002 races | 20:01.001 race | -6.54% |
| Harry Wu | 2025 | 24:05.002 races | 22:31.001 race | -6.51% |
| Peter Duhamel | 2025 | 19:10.003 races | 17:57.001 race | -6.35% |
| Margaret Kaneb | 2022 | 28:03.001 race | 26:20.001 race | -6.12% |
| Rhaya Nestor | 2025 | 26:04.002 races | 24:31.001 race | -5.95% |
| Nolan Chong | 2023 | 22:57.001 race | 21:36.002 races | -5.88% |
| Lexi Hinck | 2025 | 26:55.001 race | 25:20.001 race | -5.88% |
| Lucas Miller | 2025 | 19:25.002 races | 18:17.001 race | -5.84% |
| John Brice | 2022 | 22:26.001 race | 21:09.001 race | -5.72% |
| Caroline Creasy | 2021 | 23:58.001 race | 22:36.003 races | -5.70% |
| Alexandra Nicholas | 2022 | 26:10.001 race | 24:43.001 race | -5.54% |
| Percy Gao | 2025 | 21:46.002 races | 20:38.001 race | -5.21% |
| Damien West | 2021 | 21:04.001 race | 19:59.001 race | -5.14% |
| Juwon Lee | 2023 | 29:13.001 race | 27:43.001 race | -5.13% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2022 | 28:48.001 race | 27:21.001 race | -5.03% |
| Kate Tarr | 2025 | 21:45.002 races | 20:40.001 race | -4.98% |
| Caroline Locke | 2019 | 26:10.001 race | 24:52.003 races | -4.97% |
| Walker Cox | 2022 | 24:31.001 race | 23:18.001 race | -4.96% |
| Jameso Flaherty-Clapham | 2022 | 30:42.001 race | 29:11.001 race | -4.94% |
| Quinn McCaffrey | 2025 | 22:57.001 race | 21:49.001 race | -4.94% |
| Robert Hong | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 21:06.003 races | -4.88% |
| Patrick Riley | 2019 | 25:06.001 race | 23:54.001 race | -4.78% |
| Christian Hernandez | 2022 | 24:34.001 race | 23:24.001 race | -4.75% |
| Lang Burgess | 2022 | 27:11.001 race | 25:54.002 races | -4.72% |
| Christina Chen | 2022 | 24:56.001 race | 23:46.002 races | -4.68% |
| Thaddaeus Flatz-Ehrfeld | 2023 | 21:36.001 race | 20:36.003 races | -4.63% |
| Jaden Smith | 2022 | 19:30.001 race | 18:36.001 race | -4.62% |
| Jack Lionette | 2022 | 17:05.001 race | 16:18.003 races | -4.59% |
| Liam Warren | 2021 | 22:13.001 race | 21:12.003 races | -4.58% |
| Alexander Cohen | 2022 | 27:02.001 race | 25:48.001 race | -4.56% |
| Ryder Cavanagh | 2022 | 19:25.001 race | 18:32.002 races | -4.55% |
| Nate Hagerty | 2025 | 18:58.002 races | 18:07.001 race | -4.48% |
| Sahovan Modi | 2023 | 21:42.001 race | 20:44.003 races | -4.45% |
| Sam Harris | 2019 | 22:08.001 race | 21:09.003 races | -4.44% |
| Sophia Deng | 2021 | 25:15.001 race | 24:08.003 races | -4.42% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2022 | 23:23.001 race | 22:21.001 race | -4.42% |
| David Xiong | 2022 | 20:24.001 race | 19:30.001 race | -4.41% |
| Nicole Fallon | 2025 | 23:42.002 races | 22:40.001 race | -4.36% |
| Cara Chang | 2019 | 24:00.001 race | 22:58.003 races | -4.31% |
| Caleb Stokes | 2025 | 23:42.002 races | 22:41.001 race | -4.29% |
| Liam Warren | 2023 | 19:51.001 race | 19:00.003 races | -4.28% |
| Aidan Armaly | 2019 | 21:59.001 race | 21:04.003 races | -4.17% |
| Eleanor Lial | 2025 | 20:34.003 races | 19:43.001 race | -4.13% |
| Alex Skulte | 2022 | 29:09.001 race | 27:57.002 races | -4.12% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2022 | 31:04.001 race | 29:50.001 race | -3.97% |
| Kogo Bennsion | 2021 | 23:44.001 race | 22:48.003 races | -3.93% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2022 | 20:25.001 race | 19:37.001 race | -3.92% |
| Carter Lightburn | 2021 | 21:17.001 race | 20:27.003 races | -3.92% |
| Philip Holland | 2023 | 21:43.001 race | 20:52.003 races | -3.91% |
| Oliver Ye | 2019 | 22:22.001 race | 21:30.002 races | -3.87% |
| Paul McLaughlin | 2022 | 22:15.001 race | 21:25.002 races | -3.75% |
| Kaiden Thomas | 2019 | 23:19.001 race | 22:27.003 races | -3.72% |
| Amy Sharma | 2019 | 20:45.001 race | 20:00.002 races | -3.61% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2022 | 25:32.001 race | 24:37.001 race | -3.59% |
| CJ Briere | 2025 | 20:32.002 races | 19:48.001 race | -3.57% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2022 | 25:48.001 race | 24:53.001 race | -3.55% |
| Anders Caspersen | 2021 | 22:29.001 race | 21:42.002 races | -3.48% |
| Jingyi Fu | 2019 | 27:22.001 race | 26:25.001 race | -3.47% |
| Jeremy Gall | 2019 | 22:30.001 race | 21:44.003 races | -3.41% |
| Lindy Zhang | 2023 | 23:22.001 race | 22:35.003 races | -3.35% |
| Tori Reece | 2021 | 25:10.001 race | 24:21.003 races | -3.25% |
| Michael Lu | 2022 | 22:36.001 race | 21:52.003 races | -3.24% |
| Henry Sielheimer | 2023 | 22:43.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -3.23% |
| Caroline Creasy | 2022 | 23:32.001 race | 22:47.001 race | -3.19% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2022 | 22:54.001 race | 22:11.001 race | -3.13% |
| Nina DeMarco | 2022 | 28:09.001 race | 27:17.001 race | -3.08% |
| Jeremy Gall | 2021 | 20:05.001 race | 19:28.004 races | -3.07% |
| Katie Reveno | 2019 | 23:04.001 race | 22:22.002 races | -3.03% |
| Penelope Tregoe | 2023 | 23:44.001 race | 23:01.002 races | -3.02% |
| Sydney Nelson | 2023 | 25:57.001 race | 25:10.002 races | -3.02% |
| David Yu | 2023 | 24:11.001 race | 23:28.003 races | -2.96% |
| Charlie Gavin | 2022 | 18:54.001 race | 18:21.001 race | -2.91% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2022 | 27:33.001 race | 26:45.001 race | -2.90% |
| Owen Richer | 2025 | 18:29.003 races | 17:57.001 race | -2.89% |
| Aisling O'Connell | 2019 | 23:00.001 race | 22:21.002 races | -2.83% |
| Caroline Kovacs | 2022 | 21:34.001 race | 20:58.001 race | -2.78% |
| Mateo Garciarramos-Petrici | 2023 | 25:14.001 race | 24:32.003 races | -2.77% |
| Alexa Adams | 2022 | 25:17.001 race | 24:35.001 race | -2.77% |
| Maxwell Rothman | 2023 | 25:08.001 race | 24:27.002 races | -2.72% |
| Nina Khera | 2022 | 27:18.001 race | 26:34.001 race | -2.69% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2023 | 17:00.001 race | 16:33.003 races | -2.65% |
| Damien West | 2023 | 19:21.001 race | 18:51.002 races | -2.58% |
| Sebastian Sepulveda | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 22:00.001 race | -2.58% |
| Alan Du | 2019 | 18:58.001 race | 18:29.003 races | -2.55% |
| Vivan Das | 2021 | 19:41.001 race | 19:11.004 races | -2.54% |
| Ford Legg | 2022 | 20:24.001 race | 19:53.001 race | -2.53% |
| Sam Modur | 2022 | 22:08.001 race | 21:35.001 race | -2.48% |
| Chase Bellamy | 2022 | 21:39.001 race | 21:07.003 races | -2.46% |
| Derek Chang | 2019 | 18:26.001 race | 18:00.003 races | -2.35% |
| Noah Bay | 2019 | 19:12.001 race | 18:45.003 races | -2.34% |
| Christina Chen | 2019 | 24:25.001 race | 23:51.002 races | -2.32% |
| Trip Wight | 2021 | 20:54.001 race | 20:25.003 races | -2.31% |
| Eric Ge | 2022 | 19:47.001 race | 19:21.002 races | -2.19% |
| Aryan Mago | 2021 | 22:52.001 race | 22:22.003 races | -2.19% |
| Douglas Zhang | 2022 | 22:58.001 race | 22:29.001 race | -2.10% |
| Natalie Sun | 2023 | 27:13.001 race | 26:39.002 races | -2.08% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2022 | 20:48.001 race | 20:23.001 race | -2.00% |
| Brianna Zhang | 2019 | 23:24.001 race | 22:57.001 race | -1.92% |
| Rufus Knuppel | 2021 | 19:37.001 race | 19:15.002 races | -1.87% |
| Eloise Finley | 2025 | 25:19.002 races | 24:51.001 race | -1.84% |
| Teddy Deng | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 22:11.003 races | -1.77% |
| Eric Ge | 2023 | 18:51.001 race | 18:31.003 races | -1.77% |
| Michael Lu | 2019 | 22:22.001 race | 21:59.002 races | -1.71% |
| Liv Ding | 2021 | 27:24.001 race | 26:56.004 races | -1.70% |
| Jonathan Andreoli | 2022 | 24:40.001 race | 24:16.001 race | -1.62% |
| Hannah Gidlewski | 2019 | 27:21.001 race | 26:55.001 race | -1.58% |
| Aryan Mago | 2023 | 22:06.001 race | 21:46.003 races | -1.51% |
| Cole Miller | 2025 | 18:26.002 races | 18:10.001 race | -1.45% |
| Ayur Vallecha | 2021 | 18:41.001 race | 18:25.002 races | -1.43% |
| Diego Abadie | 2022 | 21:12.001 race | 20:54.001 race | -1.42% |
| Vivan Das | 2019 | 20:05.001 race | 19:48.003 races | -1.41% |
| Madeline Pike | 2022 | 23:53.001 race | 23:33.001 race | -1.40% |
| Ruby Fehm | 2021 | 21:13.001 race | 20:56.004 races | -1.34% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2022 | 22:40.001 race | 22:22.001 race | -1.32% |
| Lang Burgess | 2021 | 25:21.001 race | 25:01.004 races | -1.31% |
| Wren Fortunoff | 2019 | 21:48.001 race | 21:31.003 races | -1.30% |
| Stanislas Robert | 2019 | 18:44.001 race | 18:30.003 races | -1.25% |
| Stanislas Robert | 2021 | 18:00.001 race | 17:47.004 races | -1.20% |
| Penelope Tregoe | 2021 | 24:02.001 race | 23:45.004 races | -1.18% |
| Eric Ge | 2021 | 20:14.001 race | 20:00.003 races | -1.15% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2022 | 22:26.001 race | 22:11.001 race | -1.11% |
| Margaret Kaneb | 2021 | 27:13.001 race | 26:55.003 races | -1.10% |
| Sophia Lando | 2019 | 25:51.001 race | 25:34.001 race | -1.10% |
| Stephanie Mo | 2023 | 27:46.001 race | 27:28.002 races | -1.08% |
| Violet Safari | 2025 | 25:02.002 races | 24:46.001 race | -1.07% |
| Sophia Wu | 2019 | 24:14.001 race | 23:59.003 races | -1.03% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 19:51.001 race | 19:39.001 race | -1.01% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2022 | 31:40.001 race | 31:21.001 race | -1.00% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 21:58.001 race | -0.98% |
| Raymond Hildreth | 2023 | 20:32.001 race | 20:20.003 races | -0.97% |
| Gabriela Gill | 2022 | 23:13.001 race | 23:02.002 races | -0.79% |
| Jack Lionette | 2021 | 17:03.001 race | 16:55.004 races | -0.78% |
| Conor Mannion | 2022 | 22:10.001 race | 22:00.001 race | -0.75% |
| Ryder Cavanagh | 2021 | 19:01.001 race | 18:53.005 races | -0.70% |
| Sheena Bakare | 2021 | 27:09.001 race | 26:58.004 races | -0.68% |
| Beckett Dubovik | 2022 | 22:05.001 race | 21:57.001 race | -0.60% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 17:03.001 race | 16:57.001 race | -0.59% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2021 | 18:01.001 race | 17:55.004 races | -0.56% |
| Ryder Cavanagh | 2019 | 18:46.001 race | 18:40.002 races | -0.53% |
| Matthew Sennelius | 2023 | 28:13.001 race | 28:04.001 race | -0.53% |
| Tommy Bi | 2022 | 22:15.001 race | 22:08.001 race | -0.52% |
| Evan Schneider | 2022 | 21:54.001 race | 21:48.001 race | -0.46% |
| Husayn Ladha | 2021 | 25:58.001 race | 25:54.003 races | -0.26% |
| Sydney Nelson | 2021 | 24:22.001 race | 24:20.001 race | -0.14% |
| Joshua Guo | 2019 | 19:08.001 race | 19:08.002 races | 0.00% |
| Lindy Zhang | 2022 | 23:09.001 race | 23:09.002 races | 0.00% |
| Gillian Griffin | 2025 | 24:32.003 races | 24:33.001 race | +0.07% |
| Kogo Bennsion | 2023 | 20:08.001 race | 20:11.003 races | +0.25% |
| Tyler Weisberg | 2019 | 18:39.001 race | 18:42.002 races | +0.27% |
| Charlotte Maturo | 2019 | 27:02.001 race | 27:08.003 races | +0.37% |
| John Michaud | 2019 | 20:29.001 race | 20:35.002 races | +0.49% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2022 | 19:45.001 race | 19:51.001 race | +0.51% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2022 | 17:12.001 race | 17:18.003 races | +0.58% |
| Chase Bellamy | 2023 | 19:54.001 race | 20:01.003 races | +0.59% |
| Vivan Das | 2022 | 19:16.001 race | 19:23.003 races | +0.61% |
| Katie Wipf | 2022 | 21:53.001 race | 22:01.001 race | +0.61% |
| Keira Amick | 2025 | 26:55.002 races | 27:07.001 race | +0.74% |
| Jonathan Lai | 2019 | 27:45.001 race | 27:59.003 races | +0.84% |
| Jeremy Gall | 2023 | 19:11.001 race | 19:23.003 races | +1.04% |
| Jonathan Lai | 2021 | 27:02.001 race | 27:24.002 races | +1.36% |
| David Porter | 2022 | 26:28.001 race | 26:50.001 race | +1.39% |
| Wren Fortunoff | 2021 | 21:50.001 race | 22:09.004 races | +1.45% |
| Sheena Bakare | 2023 | 24:27.001 race | 24:49.003 races | +1.50% |
| Gabriela Gill | 2023 | 23:01.001 race | 23:22.003 races | +1.52% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2022 | 21:40.001 race | 22:00.001 race | +1.54% |
| Liv Ding | 2023 | 26:45.001 race | 27:10.002 races | +1.56% |
| Husayn Ladha | 2022 | 25:39.001 race | 26:03.002 races | +1.56% |
| Matthew Sennelius | 2022 | 31:42.001 race | 32:15.001 race | +1.74% |
| Phoebe Lynch | 2019 | 28:35.001 race | 29:09.002 races | +1.98% |
| Sarah Ku | 2023 | 27:04.001 race | 27:38.002 races | +2.09% |
| Caroline Creasy | 2023 | 22:52.001 race | 23:24.003 races | +2.33% |
| Trip Wight | 2022 | 21:16.001 race | 21:47.002 races | +2.43% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2022 | 21:41.001 race | 22:13.001 race | +2.46% |
| Lucy Anderson | 2019 | 26:46.001 race | 27:26.002 races | +2.49% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2022 | 24:18.001 race | 24:55.001 race | +2.54% |
| Holly Bradsher | 2021 | 29:09.001 race | 29:57.004 races | +2.74% |
| Andrew Mazza | 2019 | 18:30.001 race | 19:02.002 races | +2.88% |
| Amy Ma | 2019 | 26:03.001 race | 26:55.002 races | +3.33% |
| Elizabeth Girian | 2019 | 26:30.001 race | 27:26.001 race | +3.52% |
| Michael Lu | 2021 | 21:25.001 race | 22:19.001 race | +4.20% |
| Michael Lu | 2023 | 19:48.001 race | 20:39.003 races | +4.29% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 20:05.001 race | 20:58.001 race | +4.40% |
| Tyler Santana | 2019 | 24:41.001 race | 25:48.002 races | +4.52% |
| Gavin Shan | 2019 | 26:23.001 race | 27:39.001 race | +4.80% |
| Lawrence Li | 2019 | 19:41.001 race | 20:43.001 race | +5.25% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2022 | 20:25.001 race | 21:30.001 race | +5.31% |
| Jack Lionette | 2019 | 17:24.001 race | 18:23.002 races | +5.65% |
| Andrew Porter | 2019 | 22:19.001 race | 23:39.002 races | +5.97% |
| Anabelle Bernard | 2021 | 28:39.001 race | 30:31.001 race | +6.52% |
| Griffin Johnson | 2019 | 20:32.001 race | 21:57.002 races | +6.90% |
| Kiet Nguyen | 2019 | 24:55.001 race | 26:52.001 race | +7.83% |
| Kayla Zheng | 2021 | 27:50.001 race | 30:02.001 race | +7.90% |