Pairwise course analysis
St. Georges 5Kvs.LA 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
LA 5K Course runs slower
+1.31%
Roughly 15.7 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
127
Deep evidence
Median difference
-0.09%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.31%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.25%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
LA 5K Course fasterEvenLA 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-0.41% to +1.65%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Georges 5K | LA 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Zhou | 2025 | 29:34.001 race | 24:15.001 race | -17.98% |
| Gavin Shan | 2019 | 26:23.001 race | 22:00.002 races | -16.61% |
| Anders Ulrich | 2025 | 20:46.001 race | 19:01.001 race | -8.43% |
| Leo Gu | 2022 | 24:01.003 races | 22:18.001 race | -7.15% |
| Emmett Kellogg | 2025 | 28:02.001 race | 26:03.001 race | -7.07% |
| Christine Ordway | 2025 | 32:55.001 race | 30:43.001 race | -6.68% |
| Roger Gao | 2025 | 24:51.001 race | 23:35.001 race | -5.10% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 21:04.002 races | -5.03% |
| Ollie Jacobs | 2025 | 24:36.001 race | 23:22.001 race | -5.01% |
| Ryan Growney | 2022 | 21:46.003 races | 20:42.001 race | -4.90% |
| Rhaya Nestor | 2025 | 26:04.002 races | 24:53.001 race | -4.54% |
| Violet Safari | 2025 | 25:02.002 races | 23:56.001 race | -4.39% |
| Jack Santry | 2025 | 25:14.001 race | 24:12.001 race | -4.10% |
| Cole Zaleski | 2019 | 21:27.001 race | 20:35.001 race | -4.04% |
| Nicole Fallon | 2025 | 23:42.002 races | 22:49.001 race | -3.73% |
| James Fair | 2025 | 18:55.001 race | 18:14.001 race | -3.61% |
| Jayden Leung | 2025 | 19:36.001 race | 18:54.001 race | -3.57% |
| Sanjay Ravindran | 2025 | 22:55.002 races | 22:06.001 race | -3.56% |
| Arjun Girish | 2019 | 21:49.001 race | 21:03.002 races | -3.51% |
| Myles McCusker | 2025 | 21:25.002 races | 20:41.001 race | -3.42% |
| Nahman Mack | 2025 | 18:43.001 race | 18:06.001 race | -3.29% |
| Keira Amick | 2025 | 26:55.002 races | 26:02.001 race | -3.28% |
| Alan Wang | 2025 | 25:47.001 race | 24:57.001 race | -3.23% |
| Grant Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 22:00.001 race | 21:21.001 race | -2.95% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 20:05.001 race | 19:30.002 races | -2.90% |
| Nicole Lewis | 2025 | 34:42.001 race | 33:42.001 race | -2.88% |
| Lucas Miller | 2025 | 19:25.002 races | 18:52.001 race | -2.83% |
| Blake Dinwoodey | 2025 | 21:19.001 race | 20:47.001 race | -2.50% |
| Chris Davis | 2019 | 19:20.001 race | 18:51.002 races | -2.50% |
| Charles Broderick | 2025 | 22:18.002 races | 21:45.001 race | -2.47% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 21:39.001 race | -2.40% |
| James McCarron III | 2022 | 17:26.003 races | 17:02.001 race | -2.29% |
| Kate Tarr | 2025 | 21:45.002 races | 21:16.001 race | -2.22% |
| Tate Corcoran | 2025 | 19:25.001 race | 19:00.001 race | -2.15% |
| Winston Yeung | 2022 | 28:15.002 races | 27:41.001 race | -2.01% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 21:56.001 race | 21:30.001 race | -1.98% |
| Eloise Finley | 2025 | 25:19.002 races | 24:53.001 race | -1.71% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 22:03.001 race | 21:42.001 race | -1.59% |
| Allen Sheng | 2025 | 23:46.001 race | 23:26.001 race | -1.40% |
| Alex Cai | 2025 | 20:35.001 race | 20:19.001 race | -1.30% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 25:06.001 race | 24:47.001 race | -1.26% |
| Caleb Stokes | 2025 | 23:42.002 races | 23:27.001 race | -1.05% |
| Tycho Bardon | 2025 | 21:10.001 race | 20:57.001 race | -1.02% |
| Andrew Young | 2019 | 26:20.001 race | 26:04.001 race | -1.01% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 18:45.001 race | 18:34.001 race | -0.98% |
| Chiara Pai | 2025 | 24:03.001 race | 23:49.001 race | -0.97% |
| Justin Lee | 2025 | 19:21.001 race | 19:10.001 race | -0.95% |
| Dylan Kovacs | 2025 | 27:40.001 race | 27:25.001 race | -0.90% |
| Andy Baeck | 2025 | 22:09.001 race | 21:57.001 race | -0.90% |
| Jaiden Zhu | 2022 | 26:47.003 races | 26:35.001 race | -0.75% |
| Devin Reid | 2025 | 17:52.001 race | 17:45.001 race | -0.65% |
| Raphael Klauber | 2025 | 18:14.001 race | 18:07.001 race | -0.64% |
| Patrick Riley | 2019 | 25:06.001 race | 24:57.002 races | -0.60% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 19:51.001 race | 19:44.002 races | -0.59% |
| Warren Turner | 2025 | 20:27.001 race | 20:20.001 race | -0.57% |
| Jaden Huang | 2025 | 17:55.001 race | 17:49.001 race | -0.56% |
| Sebastian Sepulveda | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 22:28.002 races | -0.52% |
| Kiet Nguyen | 2019 | 24:55.001 race | 24:48.002 races | -0.47% |
| Teddy Dlugosch | 2025 | 24:30.001 race | 24:24.001 race | -0.41% |
| Alexander Kirby | 2021 | 25:09.001 race | 25:04.001 race | -0.33% |
| Ollie Smith | 2025 | 19:40.001 race | 19:37.001 race | -0.25% |
| Clara Trautz | 2025 | 21:16.001 race | 21:14.001 race | -0.16% |
| Lexie Hoffmeister | 2025 | 25:25.001 race | 25:23.001 race | -0.13% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 19:35.001 race | 19:34.001 race | -0.09% |
| Cecilia Lakwadala | 2025 | 23:58.001 race | 23:57.001 race | -0.07% |
| Rinto Nakazawa | 2025 | 26:15.001 race | 26:18.001 race | +0.19% |
| William Johnson | 2025 | 19:37.001 race | 19:40.001 race | +0.25% |
| George Yerid | 2025 | 23:13.002 races | 23:17.001 race | +0.29% |
| Clara Williams | 2022 | 29:03.003 races | 29:11.001 race | +0.46% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 17:03.001 race | 17:08.002 races | +0.49% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2025 | 18:40.001 race | 18:46.001 race | +0.54% |
| Blakeny Johnston | 2025 | 22:58.001 race | 23:06.001 race | +0.58% |
| Natalia Calvillo | 2025 | 26:05.001 race | 26:15.001 race | +0.64% |
| Eric Diop | 2022 | 17:45.001 race | 17:52.001 race | +0.66% |
| Finn Zinger | 2025 | 23:11.001 race | 23:21.001 race | +0.72% |
| Zach Heaton | 2022 | 20:01.001 race | 20:10.001 race | +0.75% |
| Caleigh Feng | 2025 | 25:19.001 race | 25:31.001 race | +0.79% |
| Cecilia Korb | 2025 | 25:03.001 race | 25:16.001 race | +0.86% |
| Bennett Walker | 2022 | 24:37.002 races | 24:52.001 race | +1.02% |
| Thomas Savage | 2022 | 21:30.001 race | 21:45.002 races | +1.16% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 21:22.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +1.40% |
| Will Grace | 2025 | 17:27.001 race | 17:42.001 race | +1.43% |
| Quinn McCaffrey | 2025 | 22:57.001 race | 23:19.001 race | +1.60% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 21:59.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +1.67% |
| Anray Sheng | 2025 | 21:34.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +1.70% |
| George Reinhardt | 2019 | 19:09.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +1.74% |
| Christina Hall | 2025 | 27:42.001 race | 28:12.001 race | +1.81% |
| Brendan Reichard | 2022 | 21:24.001 race | 21:51.001 race | +2.10% |
| Coco Liu | 2022 | 28:18.002 races | 28:54.001 race | +2.12% |
| Lauren Phillips | 2022 | 25:36.003 races | 26:11.001 race | +2.28% |
| Jonathan Cajamarca | 2022 | 20:05.003 races | 20:34.001 race | +2.41% |
| Mathias Why | 2022 | 19:50.001 race | 20:19.001 race | +2.44% |
| Calvin Reid | 2022 | 22:20.001 race | 22:53.001 race | +2.46% |
| Matthew Smith | 2021 | 21:46.001 race | 22:20.002 races | +2.60% |
| John (Jack) Tompros | 2022 | 21:09.001 race | 21:44.001 race | +2.76% |
| Lila Jette | 2022 | 22:51.003 races | 23:32.001 race | +2.99% |
| Leah Farb | 2025 | 26:26.001 race | 27:18.001 race | +3.28% |
| Mae Lial | 2022 | 24:45.002 races | 25:35.001 race | +3.37% |
| Quinn Thomson | 2022 | 22:14.001 race | 22:59.001 race | +3.37% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2022 | 18:36.001 race | 19:14.001 race | +3.41% |
| Roger Zhou | 2025 | 21:27.001 race | 22:14.001 race | +3.65% |
| Akshay Kumar | 2022 | 19:39.001 race | 20:25.001 race | +3.90% |
| Jasmine Kennedy | 2022 | 21:51.002 races | 22:43.001 race | +3.97% |
| Lilley Fiedler | 2022 | 29:14.002 races | 30:25.001 race | +4.05% |
| Vera Zatlyn-Weiner | 2025 | 20:51.001 race | 21:42.001 race | +4.08% |
| Cam Stathos | 2019 | 17:45.001 race | 18:29.001 race | +4.13% |
| Kate Pickford | 2022 | 21:48.003 races | 22:43.001 race | +4.20% |
| Aidan Berger | 2021 | 20:17.001 race | 21:09.002 races | +4.27% |
| Michael Thomas | 2022 | 18:13.001 race | 19:03.001 race | +4.57% |
| Katherine Clovis | 2022 | 25:26.003 races | 26:36.001 race | +4.59% |
| Henry McLane | 2025 | 16:42.001 race | 17:28.001 race | +4.59% |
| Alex Cheng | 2025 | 16:19.001 race | 17:05.001 race | +4.70% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2022 | 18:36.001 race | 19:31.001 race | +4.93% |
| Brandon Christ | 2021 | 19:52.001 race | 21:01.002 races | +5.79% |
| Forrest Feist | 2019 | 29:48.001 race | 31:37.002 races | +6.10% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 17:13.001 race | 18:20.001 race | +6.49% |
| Braeden Moitoso | 2021 | 20:18.001 race | 21:38.002 races | +6.57% |
| Brianna Boucher | 2022 | 22:46.002 races | 24:17.001 race | +6.66% |
| Riley Eyman | 2022 | 22:10.003 races | 23:48.001 race | +7.37% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2019 | 30:40.001 race | 33:10.001 race | +8.15% |
| Matt Simon | 2021 | 22:27.001 race | 24:37.001 race | +9.65% |
| Nathalie Pierpont | 2021 | 26:47.001 race | 29:43.001 race | +10.95% |
| Owen Wang | 2019 | 23:05.001 race | 25:45.001 race | +11.55% |
| Andrew Huang | 2021 | 25:55.001 race | 29:38.001 race | +14.34% |
| Joshua White | 2021 | 24:52.001 race | 29:18.002 races | +17.83% |
| Nathalie Westpfahl | 2021 | 25:03.001 race | 29:52.001 race | +19.23% |
| Darian Estrada | 2022 | 19:44.001 race | 28:30.001 race | +44.43% |