Pairwise course analysis
St. Georges 5Kvs.St. Sebastian's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Sebastian's 5K Course runs slower
+2.26%
Roughly 27.1 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
77
Strong evidence
Median difference
+1.81%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+2.26%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.46%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
St. Sebastian's 5K Course fasterEvenSt. Sebastian's 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+0.42% to +3.00%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Georges 5K | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Chen | 2019 | 25:42.001 race | 23:20.001 race | -9.21% |
| Haotong (HT) Xue | 2022 | 22:05.001 race | 20:14.001 race | -8.38% |
| Mathew Hong | 2019 | 20:41.001 race | 19:08.001 race | -7.49% |
| Bobby Ferguson | 2025 | 23:44.001 race | 22:14.001 race | -6.32% |
| Oscar Caprano | 2019 | 26:18.001 race | 24:40.001 race | -6.21% |
| Peter Leitzes | 2022 | 22:20.001 race | 21:07.001 race | -5.45% |
| Nicholas Tao | 2019 | 21:43.001 race | 20:40.001 race | -4.83% |
| Richie Joyce | 2025 | 24:08.001 race | 23:02.001 race | -4.56% |
| Sam Modur | 2019 | 25:19.001 race | 24:10.001 race | -4.54% |
| Augustus Hawk | 2019 | 23:14.001 race | 22:13.001 race | -4.38% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2019 | 20:37.001 race | 19:46.001 race | -4.12% |
| Joseph Koh | 2025 | 20:39.001 race | 19:49.001 race | -4.04% |
| Hudson Li | 2022 | 23:17.001 race | 22:21.001 race | -4.01% |
| Sam Rabieh | 2019 | 18:47.001 race | 18:03.001 race | -3.90% |
| Jake Elkins | 2019 | 20:33.001 race | 19:54.001 race | -3.16% |
| Anthony Marcucci | 2025 | 24:09.001 race | 23:25.001 race | -3.04% |
| Patrick Fennell | 2025 | 21:56.001 race | 21:21.001 race | -2.66% |
| Heng Leong | 2022 | 22:22.001 race | 21:51.001 race | -2.31% |
| Andrew Young | 2022 | 21:35.001 race | 21:12.001 race | -1.78% |
| Kevin Farmer | 2022 | 21:44.001 race | 21:22.001 race | -1.69% |
| Leo Demissie | 2022 | 21:41.001 race | 21:25.001 race | -1.23% |
| Louis Levy | 2019 | 22:43.001 race | 22:27.001 race | -1.17% |
| Kofi Fordjour | 2022 | 17:35.001 race | 17:26.001 race | -0.85% |
| Ford Legg | 2019 | 22:20.001 race | 22:11.001 race | -0.67% |
| Jeremiah Mathis | 2022 | 27:28.001 race | 27:17.001 race | -0.67% |
| Owen Dowden | 2019 | 27:41.001 race | 27:32.001 race | -0.54% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2025 | 18:34.001 race | 18:28.001 race | -0.54% |
| David Min | 2019 | 29:28.001 race | 29:19.001 race | -0.51% |
| John Joyce | 2025 | 16:56.001 race | 16:54.001 race | -0.20% |
| Sam Blank | 2022 | 21:54.001 race | 21:53.001 race | -0.08% |
| Zane Davis | 2019 | 24:06.001 race | 24:09.001 race | +0.21% |
| Ryan Loughran | 2019 | 19:10.001 race | 19:13.001 race | +0.26% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2022 | 21:12.001 race | 21:16.001 race | +0.31% |
| Christian Batemen | 2019 | 21:42.001 race | 21:47.001 race | +0.38% |
| Jack Halloran | 2025 | 18:14.001 race | 18:19.001 race | +0.46% |
| Henry Bowman | 2025 | 21:30.001 race | 21:36.001 race | +0.47% |
| Po-Tao Hsueh | 2022 | 22:41.001 race | 22:59.001 race | +1.32% |
| Zach Heaton | 2022 | 20:01.001 race | 20:19.001 race | +1.50% |
| Connor Steele | 2022 | 19:23.001 race | 19:44.001 race | +1.81% |
| Alexander Cesaretti | 2022 | 19:50.001 race | 20:15.001 race | +2.10% |
| Andrew Rodriguez | 2022 | 25:40.001 race | 26:22.001 race | +2.73% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2022 | 19:33.001 race | 20:05.001 race | +2.73% |
| Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero | 2022 | 18:09.001 race | 18:41.001 race | +2.94% |
| Theodore Choe | 2022 | 19:37.001 race | 20:12.001 race | +2.97% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2022 | 17:54.001 race | 18:27.001 race | +3.07% |
| Gratian Ting | 2022 | 22:10.001 race | 22:51.001 race | +3.08% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2022 | 21:38.001 race | 22:20.001 race | +3.24% |
| Alex Young | 2022 | 19:29.001 race | 20:07.001 race | +3.25% |
| Cormac Anderson | 2025 | 21:18.001 race | 22:01.001 race | +3.36% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2022 | 18:11.001 race | 18:48.001 race | +3.39% |
| Calvin Reid | 2022 | 22:20.001 race | 23:07.001 race | +3.51% |
| Akshay Kumar | 2022 | 19:39.001 race | 20:21.001 race | +3.56% |
| Eric Diop | 2022 | 17:45.001 race | 18:24.001 race | +3.66% |
| Thomas Savage | 2022 | 21:30.001 race | 22:22.001 race | +4.03% |
| Justin Jang | 2022 | 19:34.001 race | 20:22.001 race | +4.09% |
| Eli Berk | 2022 | 23:25.001 race | 24:24.001 race | +4.20% |
| Eric Zhu | 2022 | 19:05.001 race | 19:55.001 race | +4.37% |
| Michael Thomas | 2022 | 18:13.001 race | 19:04.001 race | +4.67% |
| Thomas Strong | 2022 | 20:54.001 race | 21:55.001 race | +4.86% |
| Quinn Thomson | 2022 | 22:14.001 race | 23:21.001 race | +5.02% |
| Mathias Why | 2022 | 19:50.001 race | 20:50.001 race | +5.04% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2022 | 18:36.001 race | 19:35.001 race | +5.29% |
| Michael Allen | 2022 | 21:50.001 race | 23:04.001 race | +5.65% |
| Tim Guan | 2019 | 27:42.001 race | 29:20.001 race | +5.90% |
| Zidan Graham | 2022 | 25:46.001 race | 27:23.001 race | +6.27% |
| Brady Payne | 2022 | 20:07.001 race | 21:31.001 race | +6.96% |
| Jacob (Coby) Mulliken | 2022 | 20:03.001 race | 21:27.001 race | +6.98% |
| Dhruv Padmanabhan | 2019 | 26:52.001 race | 28:57.001 race | +7.75% |
| Yaman Habip | 2022 | 18:53.001 race | 20:30.001 race | +8.56% |
| Jaiden Delva | 2022 | 27:29.001 race | 29:52.001 race | +8.67% |
| Kai On (Jason) Yu | 2022 | 20:21.001 race | 22:09.001 race | +8.85% |
| John (Jack) Tompros | 2022 | 21:09.001 race | 23:05.001 race | +9.14% |
| Serhii Malevych | 2022 | 25:03.001 race | 27:22.001 race | +9.25% |
| Jason Louie | 2022 | 20:22.001 race | 22:16.001 race | +9.33% |
| Archer Coy | 2022 | 23:18.001 race | 25:59.001 race | +11.52% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2022 | 18:36.001 race | 20:47.001 race | +11.74% |
| Darian Estrada | 2022 | 19:44.001 race | 26:30.001 race | +34.29% |