Pairwise course analysis

St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.Championship 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Championship 5K runs faster

-8.88%

Roughly 1:47 faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

41

Strong evidence

Median difference

-9.48%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-8.88%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.69%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Championship 5K fasterEvenChampionship 5K slower

Confidence interval

-11.97% to -7.96%

Scale shown

-12% to +12%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonSt. Mark's School Championship CourseChampionship 5KDifference
Tabor Wilson201933:39.001 race20:26.001 race-39.28%
Hugh Park201927:18.001 race22:21.001 race-18.13%
Adam Jac201923:09.001 race19:35.001 race-15.41%
Kiet Nguyen201923:10.001 race19:49.001 race-14.46%
Patrick Riley201924:07.001 race20:50.001 race-13.61%
Gavin Shan201925:55.001 race22:35.001 race-12.86%
Jack Carolan201927:29.001 race24:03.001 race-12.49%
Forrest Feist201929:38.001 race26:04.001 race-12.04%
Preston Spaan201921:43.002 races19:18.001 race-11.13%
Andrew Young201924:47.001 race22:07.001 race-10.76%
Cam Dailey201922:08.001 race19:48.001 race-10.54%
Jason Lee201922:15.002 races19:57.001 race-10.34%
Joshua Rocha201920:53.001 race18:45.001 race-10.22%
Peter Yu201922:31.002 races20:14.001 race-10.14%
Oliver Kim201925:50.001 race23:13.001 race-10.13%
Jonathan Cajamarca201920:16.002 races18:13.001 race-10.12%
Tyler Cornetta201921:34.001 race19:24.001 race-10.05%
Naji Karam201922:49.002 races20:36.001 race-9.72%
Oscar King201920:43.002 races18:44.001 race-9.57%
Walt Reagan-Loomis201922:06.001 race20:00.001 race-9.50%
Grant Reagan-Loomis201920:55.001 race18:56.001 race-9.48%
Juliana Di Napoli201926:50.002 races24:27.001 race-8.88%
Ethan Choung201922:58.002 races20:57.001 race-8.78%
Arhant Ghanta201923:20.001 race21:22.001 race-8.43%
Sam Kim201925:15.001 race23:11.001 race-8.18%
Zuriel Jimenez201927:07.002 races24:54.001 race-8.17%
Sawyer Helzberg201921:10.001 race19:29.001 race-7.95%
Eli Helzberg201921:28.001 race19:47.001 race-7.84%
Nathan An201922:25.002 races20:41.001 race-7.73%
Oliver Carswell201921:05.001 race19:31.001 race-7.43%
Maya Daly201924:38.002 races22:51.001 race-7.24%
Cole Zaleski201920:07.001 race18:41.001 race-7.13%
Shu Ke201927:38.001 race25:40.001 race-7.12%
Meredith Broadus201927:19.002 races25:30.001 race-6.65%
Camryn Flessel201923:48.001 race22:18.001 race-6.30%
Adam Jin201924:33.001 race23:11.001 race-5.57%
Allen Xia201923:12.002 races21:59.001 race-5.24%
Daniel Reyes201924:27.001 race23:23.001 race-4.36%
Chase Farrick201920:27.002 races19:42.001 race-3.67%
Corinne O'Loughlin201924:44.002 races23:59.001 race-3.03%
Gabriel Yu201922:58.001 race22:41.001 race-1.23%