Pairwise course analysis
St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.Governor's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Governor's 5K Course runs slower
+1.57%
Roughly 18.8 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
243
Deep evidence
Median difference
+1.72%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.57%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+7.41%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Governor's 5K Course fasterEvenGovernor's 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+0.77% to +2.22%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Mark's School Championship Course | Governor's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Li | 2019 | 28:43.001 race | 24:11.001 race | -15.79% |
| Nathalie Pierpont | 2021 | 29:22.001 race | 24:58.001 race | -14.98% |
| Richard (Ricky) Li | 2019 | 26:19.002 races | 22:56.001 race | -12.86% |
| Andy Chefetz | 2019 | 30:56.002 races | 27:01.001 race | -12.66% |
| Nathalie Westpfahl | 2021 | 26:59.001 race | 23:53.001 race | -11.49% |
| Alexander Colangelo | 2024 | 20:39.001 race | 18:23.001 race | -10.98% |
| Tim Cassidy | 2019 | 27:34.002 races | 24:54.001 race | -9.67% |
| Sebastian Sepulveda | 2019 | 25:21.001 race | 23:15.001 race | -8.28% |
| Colleen Leary | 2022 | 25:59.002 races | 23:59.001 race | -7.70% |
| Hyuntae Choi | 2019 | 25:04.002 races | 23:17.001 race | -7.11% |
| Michael Cheng | 2019 | 24:43.002 races | 23:00.001 race | -6.95% |
| Ty Wilschut | 2019 | 28:44.002 races | 26:45.001 race | -6.90% |
| Ryan King | 2019 | 25:53.002 races | 24:07.003 races | -6.83% |
| Ben Luo | 2019 | 24:35.002 races | 22:55.001 race | -6.78% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2021 | 23:52.001 race | 22:18.001 race | -6.56% |
| Keenan Billings | 2021 | 20:03.001 race | 18:45.001 race | -6.48% |
| Gavin Shan | 2019 | 25:55.001 race | 24:16.001 race | -6.37% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2021 | 23:39.001 race | 22:11.001 race | -6.20% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2021 | 22:43.001 race | 21:25.001 race | -5.72% |
| Kitso Paulson | 2021 | 21:44.001 race | 20:31.001 race | -5.60% |
| Brooke Georges | 2021 | 30:57.001 race | 29:15.001 race | -5.49% |
| Aiden English | 2021 | 22:34.001 race | 21:20.002 races | -5.47% |
| Nate Hagerty | 2024 | 22:00.001 race | 20:49.001 race | -5.38% |
| Danielle Brennan | 2021 | 24:16.001 race | 22:58.001 race | -5.36% |
| Kevin Yao | 2021 | 24:33.001 race | 23:15.004 races | -5.30% |
| Xander Starobin | 2019 | 28:06.002 races | 26:37.001 race | -5.28% |
| Chen-An Lin | 2021 | 28:26.001 race | 26:58.001 race | -5.16% |
| Seamus McFarland | 2025 | 21:22.001 race | 20:24.002 races | -4.52% |
| Hannah Gidlewski | 2021 | 28:39.001 race | 27:25.001 race | -4.30% |
| Peter Abenante | 2021 | 23:59.001 race | 22:58.002 races | -4.24% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2021 | 24:07.001 race | 23:07.002 races | -4.15% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2021 | 22:35.001 race | 21:45.002 races | -3.69% |
| Dylan Uttam | 2022 | 23:18.002 races | 22:27.003 races | -3.65% |
| Hannah Bernstein | 2021 | 22:24.001 race | 21:35.001 race | -3.65% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2019 | 25:09.002 races | 24:14.003 races | -3.64% |
| Zach Lonberg | 2019 | 24:56.002 races | 24:04.003 races | -3.48% |
| Adam Ewing | 2019 | 23:16.002 races | 22:30.001 race | -3.30% |
| Alexa Adams | 2022 | 25:30.002 races | 24:41.001 race | -3.20% |
| Alan Wang | 2024 | 26:49.001 race | 25:58.001 race | -3.17% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2021 | 26:18.001 race | 25:28.001 race | -3.17% |
| Monica Mukherjee | 2021 | 23:25.001 race | 22:41.001 race | -3.13% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2022 | 24:20.001 race | 23:35.001 race | -3.08% |
| Ethan Chang | 2019 | 27:13.002 races | 26:23.001 race | -3.06% |
| Tessa Borgatti | 2023 | 25:07.001 race | 24:21.002 races | -3.05% |
| Shane McCauley | 2021 | 22:00.001 race | 21:21.001 race | -2.95% |
| Brian Zheng | 2021 | 21:40.001 race | 21:02.002 races | -2.92% |
| Nicholas Reimer | 2021 | 29:07.001 race | 28:17.002 races | -2.86% |
| John Wallace | 2021 | 23:54.001 race | 23:13.001 race | -2.86% |
| Jacqueline Thabit | 2021 | 25:46.001 race | 25:02.002 races | -2.85% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2021 | 24:07.001 race | 23:26.001 race | -2.83% |
| Cora Knoell | 2021 | 24:16.001 race | 23:35.002 races | -2.82% |
| Thomas Casall | 2025 | 24:12.001 race | 23:33.002 races | -2.69% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2021 | 20:35.001 race | 20:04.002 races | -2.51% |
| Tori Duckworth | 2021 | 24:09.001 race | 23:33.001 race | -2.48% |
| Ford Legg | 2021 | 18:42.001 race | 18:15.001 race | -2.41% |
| Laruen McMahon | 2021 | 24:38.001 race | 24:03.002 races | -2.37% |
| KJ Irving | 2025 | 22:55.001 race | 22:23.002 races | -2.33% |
| Teddy Hwang | 2019 | 30:49.001 race | 30:06.002 races | -2.33% |
| Raymond Li | 2019 | 23:42.002 races | 23:11.001 race | -2.18% |
| Ashley Robertson | 2022 | 32:16.002 races | 31:34.002 races | -2.17% |
| Adyson Duval | 2021 | 28:51.001 race | 28:14.001 race | -2.14% |
| Cole Gaynor | 2021 | 20:22.001 race | 19:56.001 race | -2.13% |
| Andy Li | 2025 | 29:04.001 race | 28:27.001 race | -2.12% |
| Jessica Choe | 2019 | 28:18.002 races | 27:43.003 races | -2.06% |
| Matthew Smith | 2024 | 21:42.001 race | 21:17.001 race | -1.92% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 18:33.001 race | 18:13.001 race | -1.80% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2024 | 23:11.001 race | 22:47.001 race | -1.73% |
| Bear Brooks | 2021 | 17:10.001 race | 16:53.002 races | -1.65% |
| Henry Horvath | 2019 | 21:57.002 races | 21:37.001 race | -1.52% |
| Alexandra Rukstalis | 2024 | 28:49.002 races | 28:23.001 race | -1.50% |
| Alaina Millian | 2025 | 26:05.601 race | 25:45.002 races | -1.32% |
| Caleb Krueger | 2019 | 19:33.002 races | 19:19.001 race | -1.19% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2021 | 22:29.001 race | 22:13.001 race | -1.19% |
| Zan Danoff | 2019 | 19:53.002 races | 19:39.001 race | -1.17% |
| John Brice | 2022 | 22:03.001 race | 21:48.001 race | -1.13% |
| Matt Wing | 2019 | 18:40.002 races | 18:28.001 race | -1.07% |
| Lauren Puglia | 2021 | 22:54.001 race | 22:40.001 race | -1.02% |
| Jack Gilbert | 2019 | 21:24.002 races | 21:11.003 races | -1.01% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2019 | 26:24.002 races | 26:09.002 races | -0.95% |
| Peter Favero | 2019 | 19:28.002 races | 19:17.001 race | -0.94% |
| Sophia Matherly | 2021 | 27:20.001 race | 27:06.002 races | -0.85% |
| Leah Jin | 2021 | 27:15.001 race | 27:03.001 race | -0.73% |
| Katie Donahue | 2025 | 23:51.801 race | 23:42.001 race | -0.68% |
| Vedant Deokar | 2019 | 22:32.002 races | 22:23.001 race | -0.67% |
| Andy Jiang | 2021 | 24:56.001 race | 24:47.002 races | -0.60% |
| Quinn Bartling | 2025 | 21:24.001 race | 21:17.002 races | -0.55% |
| Dylan Uttam | 2023 | 21:28.901 race | 21:23.002 races | -0.46% |
| Cole JV Stewart | 2019 | 26:13.001 race | 26:09.001 race | -0.25% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2021 | 25:26.001 race | 25:23.001 race | -0.20% |
| Andrew Correia | 2021 | 19:55.001 race | 19:53.001 race | -0.17% |
| Oliver Massey | 2025 | 19:48.001 race | 19:47.002 races | -0.08% |
| Ethan Paek | 2019 | 19:25.001 race | 19:25.001 race | 0.00% |
| Lucas Miller | 2024 | 19:25.001 race | 19:27.001 race | +0.17% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2022 | 22:31.002 races | 22:34.001 race | +0.22% |
| Brandon Abell | 2025 | 21:03.001 race | 21:06.002 races | +0.24% |
| Caitlyn Hsu | 2024 | 25:55.002 races | 26:01.001 race | +0.39% |
| Steven Silvers | 2024 | 19:13.002 races | 19:18.001 race | +0.43% |
| Lakshmi Bogelli | 2019 | 30:11.002 races | 30:19.002 races | +0.44% |
| Talia Jachimowicz | 2019 | 24:39.002 races | 24:49.003 races | +0.68% |
| Evan Schneider | 2022 | 22:12.002 races | 22:22.001 race | +0.75% |
| Patrick Riley | 2019 | 24:07.001 race | 24:18.001 race | +0.76% |
| Katie Wipf | 2022 | 23:03.002 races | 23:14.001 race | +0.80% |
| Nicholas Reimer | 2022 | 20:53.001 race | 21:03.003 races | +0.80% |
| Josh Taylor | 2022 | 22:54.001 race | 23:05.001 race | +0.80% |
| Jess Fatzinger | 2019 | 26:51.001 race | 27:04.001 race | +0.81% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2024 | 20:08.002 races | 20:19.001 race | +0.91% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2024 | 19:42.002 races | 19:53.001 race | +0.93% |
| Connor Cross | 2019 | 18:27.002 races | 18:38.001 race | +0.99% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2025 | 19:26.001 race | 19:38.001 race | +1.03% |
| Cannon Caspar | 2019 | 18:35.002 races | 18:47.001 race | +1.08% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2019 | 21:25.002 races | 21:39.002 races | +1.09% |
| Andrew Harris | 2019 | 17:59.002 races | 18:11.001 race | +1.11% |
| Matthew Mariani | 2022 | 20:34.001 race | 20:48.003 races | +1.13% |
| Mac Hadden | 2019 | 17:45.002 races | 17:58.001 race | +1.22% |
| David Latham | 2019 | 17:40.002 races | 17:53.001 race | +1.23% |
| Amanda Gary | 2021 | 23:46.002 races | 24:06.001 race | +1.40% |
| Chris Davis | 2019 | 18:59.001 race | 19:15.001 race | +1.40% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2022 | 22:51.002 races | 23:11.001 race | +1.46% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2024 | 26:39.002 races | 27:04.001 race | +1.56% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2025 | 26:05.101 race | 26:31.002 races | +1.65% |
| Brandon Christ | 2019 | 19:05.001 race | 19:24.001 race | +1.66% |
| Owen Wang | 2019 | 21:20.001 race | 21:42.001 race | +1.72% |
| Oliver Massey | 2024 | 20:35.001 race | 20:57.001 race | +1.78% |
| Stone Shen | 2019 | 20:26.002 races | 20:48.001 race | +1.79% |
| Lakshmi Bogelli | 2021 | 30:05.001 race | 30:38.001 race | +1.83% |
| Hollen Knoell | 2019 | 23:48.002 races | 24:15.003 races | +1.89% |
| Arjun Girish | 2019 | 20:59.001 race | 21:23.001 race | +1.91% |
| Forrest Feist | 2019 | 29:38.001 race | 30:13.001 race | +1.97% |
| Calvin Jacobs | 2025 | 19:18.001 race | 19:42.002 races | +2.07% |
| Owen Haskell | 2025 | 19:13.001 race | 19:37.002 races | +2.08% |
| Sophia Lando | 2019 | 24:49.001 race | 25:21.001 race | +2.15% |
| Sean McLaughlin | 2019 | 20:28.002 races | 20:55.001 race | +2.20% |
| Jana Choe | 2019 | 28:39.002 races | 29:18.003 races | +2.27% |
| Grigory Menshikov | 2019 | 24:14.002 races | 24:48.003 races | +2.34% |
| Peter Abenante | 2022 | 21:50.002 races | 22:21.003 races | +2.37% |
| Evan Schneider | 2024 | 19:51.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +2.43% |
| Amelia Barlow | 2022 | 24:21.002 races | 24:57.003 races | +2.46% |
| Lily Heaton | 2024 | 27:39.001 race | 28:20.001 race | +2.47% |
| Brian Zheng | 2022 | 20:46.002 races | 21:17.003 races | +2.49% |
| Connor Keleher | 2025 | 21:49.001 race | 22:22.002 races | +2.52% |
| Kevin Yao | 2022 | 20:53.002 races | 21:25.002 races | +2.55% |
| Leo Lin | 2019 | 21:22.002 races | 21:55.003 races | +2.57% |
| Alex Hass | 2019 | 20:27.002 races | 20:59.002 races | +2.61% |
| Eliza Barker | 2021 | 25:57.001 race | 26:38.001 race | +2.63% |
| Grace Maloney | 2022 | 25:08.002 races | 25:48.003 races | +2.65% |
| Daichi Seki | 2019 | 20:34.001 race | 21:07.001 race | +2.67% |
| Quinn Anderson-Song | 2019 | 18:49.002 races | 19:20.003 races | +2.75% |
| Megan Corry | 2022 | 27:03.001 race | 27:50.001 race | +2.90% |
| Robert Peirce | 2024 | 22:23.001 race | 23:02.001 race | +2.90% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2024 | 19:05.002 races | 19:40.001 race | +3.06% |
| Daniel McGowan | 2024 | 22:18.001 race | 22:59.001 race | +3.06% |
| Lily Heaton | 2022 | 26:32.001 race | 27:21.001 race | +3.08% |
| Lucie Abenante | 2019 | 27:24.002 races | 28:15.002 races | +3.10% |
| Mason Peng | 2022 | 23:41.002 races | 24:27.002 races | +3.24% |
| Theodore (Theo) Andersen | 2022 | 30:18.001 race | 31:18.003 races | +3.30% |
| Ben Nissenbaum | 2022 | 23:43.001 race | 24:30.004 races | +3.30% |
| Kate Tarr | 2024 | 22:05.001 race | 22:49.001 race | +3.32% |
| Arhant Ghanta | 2019 | 23:20.001 race | 24:07.001 race | +3.36% |
| Sam Benson | 2025 | 21:36.001 race | 22:20.001 race | +3.40% |
| Cole Bourgeois | 2019 | 19:22.002 races | 20:02.002 races | +3.44% |
| Katalin (Kata) Clark | 2021 | 21:36.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +3.47% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2023 | 22:49.001 race | 23:40.002 races | +3.73% |
| Eric Lin | 2019 | 25:55.002 races | 26:54.002 races | +3.79% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2022 | 20:12.002 races | 20:58.003 races | +3.80% |
| Grace Maloney | 2023 | 22:49.001 race | 23:42.003 races | +3.87% |
| Selina Liu | 2019 | 27:33.002 races | 28:37.003 races | +3.87% |
| Henry Zhu | 2025 | 30:06.001 race | 31:17.001 race | +3.93% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2022 | 28:13.002 races | 29:21.001 race | +4.02% |
| Connor Keleher | 2024 | 23:01.001 race | 23:57.001 race | +4.06% |
| Katie Riley | 2019 | 27:03.002 races | 28:11.001 race | +4.19% |
| Pilar Bell | 2025 | 26:31.001 race | 27:38.001 race | +4.21% |
| Ryan Noreke | 2022 | 20:03.002 races | 20:54.001 race | +4.24% |
| Kaitie Donahue | 2024 | 25:51.002 races | 26:57.001 race | +4.26% |
| Liv Pasquale | 2019 | 29:38.001 race | 30:55.002 races | +4.33% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2024 | 18:00.001 race | 18:47.001 race | +4.35% |
| Sophia Mikelinich | 2022 | 22:00.002 races | 23:00.003 races | +4.55% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2022 | 20:32.001 race | 21:29.003 races | +4.63% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2022 | 22:44.001 race | 23:48.001 race | +4.69% |
| Renee Martell | 2024 | 27:15.002 races | 28:34.001 race | +4.83% |
| John Brice | 2024 | 21:01.002 races | 22:02.001 race | +4.84% |
| Samson Oblak | 2025 | 21:54.001 race | 23:01.001 race | +5.10% |
| Max Rochford | 2022 | 24:05.002 races | 25:19.003 races | +5.12% |
| Austin Corbett | 2023 | 18:32.001 race | 19:29.003 races | +5.13% |
| Gianna Carroll | 2025 | 25:07.001 race | 26:26.001 race | +5.24% |
| Amina Cifric | 2022 | 25:03.002 races | 26:22.003 races | +5.26% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 20:54.001 race | 22:00.002 races | +5.26% |
| Ava Palazzolo | 2021 | 29:22.001 race | 30:56.001 race | +5.33% |
| Crystal Xia | 2019 | 28:04.001 race | 29:34.001 race | +5.34% |
| Kevin Xie | 2025 | 30:31.001 race | 32:09.001 race | +5.35% |
| Myles McCusker | 2024 | 21:21.001 race | 22:30.001 race | +5.39% |
| Adrian Chen | 2022 | 26:01.001 race | 27:26.003 races | +5.45% |
| Enock Musyoka | 2019 | 16:28.001 race | 17:22.001 race | +5.47% |
| Jake Devries | 2022 | 21:49.001 race | 23:01.001 race | +5.50% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2022 | 24:42.002 races | 26:05.001 race | +5.60% |
| Caleb Gartner | 2019 | 16:55.002 races | 17:52.001 race | +5.62% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2024 | 24:45.001 race | 26:10.001 race | +5.72% |
| James Carroll | 2025 | 22:06.001 race | 23:22.001 race | +5.73% |
| Luke Ferrone | 2025 | 25:40.001 race | 27:09.001 race | +5.78% |
| Isabelle Stewart | 2019 | 25:16.001 race | 26:44.003 races | +5.80% |
| Jack Carolan | 2019 | 27:29.001 race | 29:05.001 race | +5.82% |
| Alexa Adams | 2024 | 24:10.002 races | 25:35.001 race | +5.86% |
| Skylar Bedard | 2022 | 20:44.002 races | 22:00.003 races | +6.11% |
| Eric Berard | 2019 | 18:25.002 races | 19:33.003 races | +6.15% |
| Lorenzo Johnson | 2025 | 20:49.001 race | 22:09.001 race | +6.41% |
| Bear Brooks | 2022 | 17:18.002 races | 18:25.003 races | +6.45% |
| R. Murphy | 2024 | 26:09.002 races | 27:54.001 race | +6.69% |
| Willow Dixon | 2022 | 23:54.001 race | 25:31.003 races | +6.76% |
| Nicole Fallon | 2024 | 26:16.001 race | 28:04.001 race | +6.85% |
| Madeline Pike | 2022 | 23:35.001 race | 25:12.001 race | +6.86% |
| Alaina Millian | 2024 | 25:39.001 race | 27:25.001 race | +6.89% |
| Tegan Young | 2019 | 24:20.001 race | 26:04.001 race | +7.12% |
| Tom Pan | 2025 | 25:00.001 race | 26:49.001 race | +7.27% |
| Charlie Gavin | 2022 | 18:33.002 races | 19:54.001 race | +7.28% |
| Rumi Kaye | 2025 | 27:44.001 race | 29:50.001 race | +7.57% |
| Jason Zhu | 2022 | 24:40.002 races | 26:34.002 races | +7.70% |
| Josh Taylor | 2023 | 22:05.001 race | 23:48.003 races | +7.77% |
| Sophia Mikelinich | 2023 | 21:53.001 race | 23:40.003 races | +8.15% |
| Peter Abenante | 2023 | 21:06.401 race | 22:50.003 races | +8.18% |
| Jillian Bergeron | 2023 | 20:53.001 race | 22:37.002 races | +8.30% |
| Amina Cifric | 2023 | 21:50.001 race | 23:39.003 races | +8.32% |
| Aiden English | 2019 | 22:13.002 races | 24:04.002 races | +8.33% |
| Morgan Pfeil | 2025 | 23:31.001 race | 25:32.001 race | +8.58% |
| Ava Marinaro | 2025 | 27:29.001 race | 29:53.001 race | +8.73% |
| Kiet Nguyen | 2019 | 23:10.001 race | 25:14.001 race | +8.92% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2022 | 23:28.002 races | 25:34.003 races | +8.95% |
| Cora Knoell | 2022 | 22:29.002 races | 24:31.003 races | +9.04% |
| Bobby Liu | 2022 | 28:18.001 race | 30:55.002 races | +9.25% |
| Jack Torrisi | 2025 | 24:54.001 race | 27:13.001 race | +9.30% |
| Ella McDonald | 2023 | 22:47.001 race | 24:57.003 races | +9.51% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2022 | 23:29.002 races | 25:47.003 races | +9.79% |
| Sophia Matherly | 2022 | 24:21.002 races | 26:46.003 races | +9.92% |
| Kevin Yao | 2023 | 20:16.601 race | 22:23.003 races | +10.39% |
| Nicholas Reimer | 2023 | 19:35.901 race | 21:42.003 races | +10.72% |
| Chloe Catalano | 2024 | 29:02.002 races | 32:12.001 race | +10.91% |
| Lila Graves | 2022 | 27:42.002 races | 31:12.003 races | +12.64% |
| Alex Chen | 2022 | 27:27.001 race | 30:56.002 races | +12.69% |
| Tyler Almaraz | 2025 | 25:58.001 race | 29:26.001 race | +13.35% |
| Erin Crisafi | 2023 | 25:09.001 race | 28:33.003 races | +13.52% |
| Alex Hallstrom | 2019 | 20:15.002 races | 23:07.003 races | +14.16% |
| Connor Bragg | 2024 | 23:21.001 race | 27:36.001 race | +18.20% |
| Lousia Corbett | 2024 | 22:04.001 race | 26:10.001 race | +18.58% |
| Bella Choi | 2025 | 25:04.001 race | 30:52.001 race | +23.14% |
| Aditya Shrivastava | 2022 | 24:43.002 races | 32:13.002 races | +30.34% |