Pairwise course analysis

St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.Hotchkiss School 5K

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Hotchkiss School 5K runs faster

-1.33%

Roughly 16.0 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

35

Developing evidence

Median difference

-1.16%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-1.33%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.26%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Hotchkiss School 5K fasterEvenHotchkiss School 5K slower

Confidence interval

-2.34% to +0.22%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonSt. Mark's School Championship CourseHotchkiss School 5KDifference
Joe Jia202425:30.001 race20:57.001 race-17.84%
Haotong Xue202418:57.001 race17:56.001 race-5.36%
Molly Sheehan202423:26.001 race22:16.001 race-4.98%
Ching Hei (Andre) Leung202422:21.001 race21:42.001 race-2.91%
Torey Mathews202426:05.001 race25:22.001 race-2.75%
Sebastian Colberg202419:28.001 race19:01.001 race-2.31%
Will Frazier202420:06.001 race19:39.001 race-2.24%
Elizabeth De Ramel202422:40.001 race22:10.001 race-2.21%
Kailyn Love202422:45.001 race22:15.001 race-2.20%
Davis Woolbert202417:28.001 race17:05.001 race-2.19%
Emilia Raviola202423:26.001 race22:56.001 race-2.13%
William Achtmeyer202419:40.001 race19:19.001 race-1.78%
Jace LiVigni202418:42.001 race18:24.001 race-1.60%
Margot Murphy-Hara202423:55.001 race23:36.001 race-1.32%
Maksim Roman202419:05.001 race18:50.001 race-1.31%
Babikir Saeed202418:55.001 race18:41.001 race-1.23%
Armand Matijasevic202419:50.001 race19:36.001 race-1.18%
Jack Good202418:43.001 race18:30.001 race-1.16%
Isaac Wu202421:00.001 race20:54.001 race-0.48%
Jason Louie202418:28.001 race18:24.001 race-0.36%
Felix Stuart202420:20.001 race20:17.001 race-0.25%
Esme Campbell202420:01.001 race20:01.001 race0.00%
Mira Anmeng Lu202424:51.001 race24:52.001 race+0.07%
Kailin Shi202424:44.002 races24:46.001 race+0.13%
Eita Fuse202417:44.001 race17:52.001 race+0.75%
Alex Sherman202419:28.001 race19:39.001 race+0.94%
Hudson Li202420:45.001 race20:58.001 race+1.04%
Dion Cheung202425:11.001 race25:38.001 race+1.79%
Fitz Courtney202417:16.001 race17:35.001 race+1.83%
Sam Leviton202417:41.001 race18:01.001 race+1.89%
William Trautz202416:07.001 race16:28.001 race+2.17%
Johannes Eikeboom202419:36.001 race20:06.001 race+2.55%
Gratian Ting202420:41.001 race21:17.001 race+2.90%
Timothy Snail202417:38.001 race18:09.001 race+2.93%
Emlyn Joseph202419:19.001 race20:03.001 race+3.80%