Pairwise course analysis
St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.Nobles NEPSTA Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Nobles NEPSTA Course runs faster
-2.13%
Roughly 25.6 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
231
Deep evidence
Median difference
-2.67%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-2.13%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.41%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Nobles NEPSTA Course fasterEvenNobles NEPSTA Course slower
Confidence interval
-3.12% to -2.46%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Mark's School Championship Course | Nobles NEPSTA Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abigail Rabieh | 2019 | 33:30.001 race | 26:36.001 race | -20.60% |
| Grigory Menshikov | 2019 | 24:42.002 races | 22:34.001 race | -8.64% |
| Eli Kream | 2019 | 23:14.002 races | 21:16.001 race | -8.46% |
| Rishi Khanna | 2019 | 21:32.001 race | 19:48.001 race | -8.05% |
| Michael Lu | 2019 | 21:19.001 race | 19:39.001 race | -7.82% |
| Adam Ewing | 2019 | 21:32.002 races | 19:55.001 race | -7.51% |
| John Michaud | 2019 | 20:11.001 race | 18:46.001 race | -7.02% |
| Bart Lojanarungsiri | 2019 | 23:52.001 race | 22:12.001 race | -6.98% |
| Nicholas Tao | 2019 | 21:07.001 race | 19:40.001 race | -6.87% |
| Ryan King | 2019 | 23:46.002 races | 22:10.001 race | -6.73% |
| Aidan Jackivicz | 2019 | 22:38.001 race | 21:09.001 race | -6.55% |
| Mahiro Yamikawa | 2019 | 18:56.001 race | 17:43.001 race | -6.43% |
| Ashley Battiata | 2019 | 26:38.004 races | 24:56.001 race | -6.38% |
| Paula Hornbostel | 2019 | 27:31.004 races | 25:48.001 race | -6.24% |
| Lucy Rainer | 2019 | 26:17.001 race | 24:39.001 race | -6.21% |
| Theo Goldman | 2019 | 22:53.001 race | 21:28.001 race | -6.19% |
| Dung Pham | 2019 | 24:43.001 race | 23:12.001 race | -6.14% |
| Jack Wang | 2019 | 20:55.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -6.14% |
| Daniel Wang | 2019 | 25:34.001 race | 24:06.001 race | -5.74% |
| Abdel Barakat | 2019 | 19:57.001 race | 18:49.001 race | -5.68% |
| Emily Taylor | 2019 | 25:10.004 races | 23:45.001 race | -5.63% |
| Daniela Ortiz | 2019 | 24:16.004 races | 22:55.001 race | -5.56% |
| Zach Lonberg | 2019 | 25:46.002 races | 24:22.001 race | -5.43% |
| Nathan Anderson | 2019 | 19:14.001 race | 18:12.001 race | -5.37% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2019 | 24:31.002 races | 23:13.001 race | -5.30% |
| Cannon Caspar | 2019 | 18:55.002 races | 17:58.001 race | -5.02% |
| Ines Levy | 2019 | 22:54.001 race | 21:45.001 race | -5.02% |
| Armando Walters | 2019 | 20:17.001 race | 19:16.001 race | -5.01% |
| Sophia Wu | 2019 | 24:58.001 race | 23:43.001 race | -5.01% |
| Thomas Reichard | 2019 | 20:02.001 race | 19:02.001 race | -4.99% |
| Julia Maimones | 2019 | 24:04.001 race | 22:52.001 race | -4.99% |
| Ellie Gable | 2019 | 26:47.001 race | 25:28.001 race | -4.92% |
| Shawn Wu | 2019 | 20:45.001 race | 19:44.001 race | -4.90% |
| Jonah Rothman | 2019 | 23:08.001 race | 22:01.001 race | -4.83% |
| Niki Apostolicas | 2019 | 20:51.001 race | 19:52.001 race | -4.72% |
| Caleb Gartner | 2019 | 17:13.002 races | 16:25.001 race | -4.65% |
| Hollen Knoell | 2019 | 23:40.002 races | 22:35.001 race | -4.58% |
| Rosie Qin | 2019 | 25:47.001 race | 24:37.001 race | -4.52% |
| Conor Mannion | 2019 | 23:23.002 races | 22:20.001 race | -4.49% |
| Andrew Monsalve | 2019 | 21:58.001 race | 20:59.001 race | -4.48% |
| Kaley Le Blanc | 2019 | 25:11.002 races | 24:05.001 race | -4.37% |
| Noah Bay | 2019 | 20:17.001 race | 19:24.001 race | -4.35% |
| Griffin Gibbs | 2019 | 20:56.002 races | 20:02.001 race | -4.30% |
| Olivia Knight | 2019 | 22:20.001 race | 21:23.001 race | -4.25% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2019 | 26:47.001 race | 25:39.001 race | -4.23% |
| Eric Lin | 2019 | 26:05.002 races | 24:59.001 race | -4.22% |
| Corrine Waters | 2019 | 23:32.001 race | 22:33.001 race | -4.18% |
| Oliver Wyner | 2019 | 22:23.001 race | 21:27.001 race | -4.17% |
| Grace Luettgen | 2019 | 25:05.001 race | 24:03.001 race | -4.12% |
| Ethan Anderson | 2019 | 19:54.001 race | 19:05.001 race | -4.10% |
| Sam Jankey | 2019 | 21:37.001 race | 20:44.001 race | -4.09% |
| Naila Strong | 2019 | 25:00.004 races | 23:59.001 race | -4.07% |
| Lucy Anderson | 2019 | 25:32.001 race | 24:30.001 race | -4.05% |
| Ford Legg | 2019 | 21:43.001 race | 20:51.001 race | -3.99% |
| Connor Cross | 2019 | 18:49.002 races | 18:04.001 race | -3.99% |
| Chris Millay | 2019 | 19:51.001 race | 19:04.001 race | -3.95% |
| Tony Guo | 2019 | 20:47.001 race | 19:58.001 race | -3.93% |
| Ryan Loughran | 2019 | 19:40.001 race | 18:54.001 race | -3.90% |
| Sam Poulin | 2019 | 20:06.001 race | 19:19.001 race | -3.90% |
| Caleb Krueger | 2019 | 18:36.002 races | 17:53.001 race | -3.85% |
| Richard Shum | 2019 | 22:43.001 race | 21:51.001 race | -3.82% |
| Vedant Deokar | 2019 | 21:46.002 races | 20:57.001 race | -3.75% |
| Finn Crawford | 2019 | 17:54.001 race | 17:14.001 race | -3.72% |
| Aidan Armaly | 2019 | 21:15.001 race | 20:28.001 race | -3.69% |
| Caroline Locke | 2019 | 25:22.001 race | 24:26.001 race | -3.68% |
| Joshua Guo | 2019 | 19:05.001 race | 18:23.001 race | -3.67% |
| Avery Rubins | 2019 | 24:33.001 race | 23:39.001 race | -3.67% |
| Josie Silk | 2019 | 21:58.001 race | 21:10.001 race | -3.64% |
| Olivia Pasquale | 2019 | 29:53.001 race | 28:48.001 race | -3.63% |
| Meghan Webb | 2019 | 22:28.001 race | 21:40.001 race | -3.56% |
| Lucas Liu | 2019 | 22:00.001 race | 21:13.001 race | -3.56% |
| Mia Peng | 2019 | 26:38.001 race | 25:42.001 race | -3.50% |
| Lilly Bradley | 2019 | 20:00.001 race | 19:18.001 race | -3.50% |
| David Latham | 2019 | 17:40.002 races | 17:03.001 race | -3.49% |
| Jillian Robertson | 2019 | 22:32.001 race | 21:45.001 race | -3.48% |
| Alene Fernandes | 2019 | 22:35.001 race | 21:48.001 race | -3.47% |
| Lawrence Li | 2019 | 20:22.001 race | 19:40.001 race | -3.44% |
| Khalid Abdulle | 2019 | 20:24.001 race | 19:42.001 race | -3.43% |
| Isabelle Stewart | 2019 | 25:16.001 race | 24:24.001 race | -3.43% |
| Matt Wing | 2019 | 18:00.002 races | 17:23.001 race | -3.43% |
| Calvin Cochran | 2019 | 20:34.001 race | 19:52.001 race | -3.40% |
| Henry Horvath | 2019 | 20:35.002 races | 19:53.001 race | -3.40% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2019 | 21:03.002 races | 20:21.001 race | -3.33% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2019 | 22:34.001 race | 21:49.001 race | -3.32% |
| Meg Dugan | 2019 | 20:23.001 race | 19:43.001 race | -3.27% |
| Gavin Cassidy | 2019 | 20:01.002 races | 19:22.001 race | -3.25% |
| Hadley Stanton | 2019 | 24:10.001 race | 23:23.001 race | -3.24% |
| Tommy Bi | 2019 | 25:52.002 races | 25:02.001 race | -3.22% |
| Amy Ma | 2019 | 26:34.001 race | 25:43.001 race | -3.20% |
| Nina Douge | 2019 | 22:24.001 race | 21:41.001 race | -3.20% |
| Mariam Craig | 2019 | 22:31.001 race | 21:48.001 race | -3.18% |
| Andrew Mottur | 2019 | 17:53.001 race | 17:19.001 race | -3.17% |
| Joey O'Brien | 2019 | 19:03.001 race | 18:27.001 race | -3.15% |
| Charles Chen | 2019 | 23:18.001 race | 22:34.001 race | -3.15% |
| Drew Kirk | 2019 | 19:04.001 race | 18:28.001 race | -3.15% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2019 | 19:45.001 race | 19:08.001 race | -3.12% |
| Sean McLaughlin | 2019 | 19:47.002 races | 19:10.001 race | -3.12% |
| Elizabeth Girian | 2019 | 26:23.001 race | 25:34.001 race | -3.10% |
| Ann Wichern | 2019 | 25:24.001 race | 24:37.001 race | -3.08% |
| Charlie Guerra | 2019 | 20:08.001 race | 19:31.001 race | -3.06% |
| Phoebe Lu | 2019 | 25:43.001 race | 24:56.001 race | -3.05% |
| Jack Starobin | 2019 | 18:44.001 race | 18:10.001 race | -3.02% |
| Peter Iascone | 2019 | 22:44.001 race | 22:03.001 race | -3.01% |
| Maggie Xu | 2019 | 29:34.001 race | 28:41.001 race | -2.99% |
| Princess Alexander | 2019 | 25:44.004 races | 24:58.001 race | -2.98% |
| Grace Martin | 2019 | 24:17.001 race | 23:34.001 race | -2.95% |
| Eve Elkins | 2019 | 24:38.004 races | 23:55.001 race | -2.91% |
| Cameron Walker | 2019 | 25:47.001 race | 25:02.001 race | -2.91% |
| Ruby Massengale | 2019 | 28:13.001 race | 27:24.001 race | -2.89% |
| Megan Ding | 2019 | 24:56.001 race | 24:13.001 race | -2.87% |
| Carter Bartel | 2019 | 20:55.001 race | 20:19.001 race | -2.87% |
| Jack Hutchison | 2019 | 18:40.001 race | 18:08.001 race | -2.86% |
| Lindsay Davis | 2019 | 22:56.004 races | 22:17.001 race | -2.83% |
| Thompson Zhou | 2019 | 23:40.001 race | 23:01.001 race | -2.75% |
| Katie Wipf | 2019 | 21:16.001 race | 20:41.001 race | -2.74% |
| Sam Rabieh | 2019 | 18:08.001 race | 17:39.001 race | -2.67% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2019 | 21:16.001 race | 20:42.001 race | -2.66% |
| Amy Sharma | 2019 | 20:02.001 race | 19:30.001 race | -2.66% |
| Gabby Guerrero | 2019 | 19:26.001 race | 18:55.001 race | -2.66% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2019 | 23:19.002 races | 22:42.001 race | -2.64% |
| Quinn Anderson-Song | 2019 | 19:33.002 races | 19:02.001 race | -2.64% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2019 | 19:34.001 race | 19:03.001 race | -2.64% |
| Kendall Sommers | 2019 | 24:10.004 races | 23:32.001 race | -2.62% |
| Stone Shen | 2019 | 19:45.002 races | 19:14.001 race | -2.62% |
| Sam Harris | 2019 | 21:04.001 race | 20:31.001 race | -2.61% |
| Cameron Estrada | 2019 | 20:26.001 race | 19:54.001 race | -2.61% |
| Cooper Austen | 2019 | 17:06.001 race | 16:40.001 race | -2.53% |
| Maya Sidhu | 2019 | 23:57.001 race | 23:21.001 race | -2.51% |
| Ian Bayliss | 2019 | 19:24.001 race | 18:55.001 race | -2.49% |
| Mac Hadden | 2019 | 17:26.002 races | 17:00.001 race | -2.49% |
| Tyler Weisberg | 2019 | 18:59.001 race | 18:31.001 race | -2.46% |
| Andrew Harris | 2019 | 18:02.002 races | 17:36.001 race | -2.40% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2019 | 19:33.002 races | 19:05.001 race | -2.39% |
| Alan Du | 2019 | 18:56.001 race | 18:29.001 race | -2.38% |
| Alexander Messier | 2019 | 19:42.001 race | 19:14.001 race | -2.37% |
| Katie Riley | 2019 | 26:46.002 races | 26:08.001 race | -2.37% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2019 | 25:22.001 race | 24:46.001 race | -2.37% |
| Maanasi Chintamani | 2019 | 25:40.001 race | 25:04.001 race | -2.34% |
| Zan Danoff | 2019 | 18:44.002 races | 18:18.001 race | -2.31% |
| Mathew Hong | 2019 | 19:28.001 race | 19:01.001 race | -2.31% |
| Justin O'Toole | 2019 | 16:44.001 race | 16:21.001 race | -2.29% |
| Lang Burgess | 2019 | 26:13.001 race | 25:37.001 race | -2.29% |
| Andrew Mazza | 2019 | 18:15.001 race | 17:50.001 race | -2.28% |
| Stanislas Robert | 2019 | 19:06.001 race | 18:40.001 race | -2.27% |
| Lwazi Bululu | 2019 | 19:17.001 race | 18:51.001 race | -2.25% |
| Eric Diop | 2019 | 20:02.001 race | 19:35.001 race | -2.25% |
| Zach Rogers | 2019 | 20:08.001 race | 19:41.001 race | -2.24% |
| Andrew Kasparyan | 2019 | 19:28.001 race | 19:02.001 race | -2.23% |
| Ross Stewart | 2019 | 18:49.001 race | 18:24.001 race | -2.21% |
| Olivia Fayemi | 2019 | 28:42.001 race | 28:04.001 race | -2.21% |
| Nolan McKenna | 2019 | 18:11.001 race | 17:47.001 race | -2.20% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2019 | 20:58.002 races | 20:31.001 race | -2.15% |
| Vivan Das | 2019 | 19:26.001 race | 19:01.001 race | -2.14% |
| Ryan Swords | 2019 | 19:53.001 race | 19:28.001 race | -2.10% |
| Phoebe Lynch | 2019 | 28:17.001 race | 27:42.001 race | -2.06% |
| Arnav Harve | 2019 | 20:19.001 race | 19:54.001 race | -2.05% |
| Max Hall | 2019 | 19:07.001 race | 18:44.001 race | -2.01% |
| Jerry Sang | 2019 | 26:13.001 race | 25:42.001 race | -1.97% |
| Garner Thompson | 2019 | 18:42.002 races | 18:20.001 race | -1.96% |
| Andria Bao | 2019 | 25:30.004 races | 25:00.001 race | -1.96% |
| Max Gomez | 2019 | 18:48.001 race | 18:26.001 race | -1.95% |
| Gabby Walsh | 2019 | 20:45.001 race | 20:21.001 race | -1.93% |
| Talia Jachimowicz | 2019 | 24:18.002 races | 23:50.001 race | -1.92% |
| Ethan Sweeney | 2019 | 18:17.001 race | 17:56.001 race | -1.91% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2019 | 25:38.001 race | 25:09.001 race | -1.89% |
| Alena Mulhern | 2019 | 24:19.001 race | 23:52.001 race | -1.85% |
| Ellie Berman | 2019 | 24:36.001 race | 24:09.001 race | -1.83% |
| Cordelia Loomis | 2019 | 23:44.001 race | 23:20.001 race | -1.69% |
| Sarah Hastings | 2019 | 26:14.001 race | 25:48.001 race | -1.65% |
| Lily Manley | 2019 | 26:15.001 race | 25:49.001 race | -1.65% |
| David Sullivan | 2019 | 18:35.001 race | 18:17.001 race | -1.61% |
| Alex Hallstrom | 2019 | 19:50.002 races | 19:31.001 race | -1.60% |
| Jack Lionette | 2019 | 17:48.001 race | 17:31.001 race | -1.59% |
| Julian Li | 2019 | 19:05.001 race | 18:47.001 race | -1.57% |
| Annabelle Rogers | 2019 | 21:32.001 race | 21:13.001 race | -1.47% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2019 | 21:12.001 race | 20:54.001 race | -1.42% |
| Peter Favero | 2019 | 18:35.002 races | 18:20.001 race | -1.35% |
| Christian Batemen | 2019 | 21:04.001 race | 20:47.001 race | -1.34% |
| Justin Qin | 2019 | 18:36.001 race | 18:21.001 race | -1.34% |
| Marianne Lyons | 2019 | 25:09.004 races | 24:51.001 race | -1.19% |
| Aisling O'Connell | 2019 | 22:50.001 race | 22:34.001 race | -1.17% |
| Liam O'Connor | 2019 | 19:29.001 race | 19:16.001 race | -1.11% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2019 | 19:34.002 races | 19:21.001 race | -1.11% |
| Alex Wu | 2019 | 18:36.001 race | 18:24.001 race | -1.08% |
| Meena Menon | 2019 | 21:48.001 race | 21:34.001 race | -1.07% |
| Quinn Donovan | 2019 | 17:11.001 race | 17:00.001 race | -1.07% |
| Izzy Cheney | 2019 | 23:32.001 race | 23:17.001 race | -1.06% |
| Aiden English | 2019 | 22:09.002 races | 21:56.001 race | -0.98% |
| Lindsay Tucker | 2019 | 24:34.001 race | 24:20.001 race | -0.95% |
| Katie Chen | 2019 | 23:46.001 race | 23:33.001 race | -0.91% |
| Austin Qu | 2019 | 20:23.001 race | 20:12.001 race | -0.90% |
| Eric Berard | 2019 | 19:16.002 races | 19:06.001 race | -0.87% |
| Aitong (Ivy) Li | 2019 | 25:11.004 races | 24:58.001 race | -0.86% |
| Anna Garvey | 2019 | 23:39.001 race | 23:27.001 race | -0.85% |
| Mark Henshon | 2019 | 16:29.001 race | 16:21.001 race | -0.81% |
| Tommy Gaffey | 2019 | 16:43.001 race | 16:35.001 race | -0.80% |
| Derek Chang | 2019 | 18:13.001 race | 18:05.001 race | -0.73% |
| Om Paithankar | 2019 | 21:09.001 race | 21:00.001 race | -0.71% |
| Alex Szynal | 2019 | 27:00.001 race | 26:51.001 race | -0.56% |
| Patrick Denning | 2019 | 18:57.001 race | 18:51.001 race | -0.53% |
| Katie Reveno | 2019 | 22:21.001 race | 22:14.001 race | -0.52% |
| Sophia Deng | 2019 | 25:52.001 race | 25:44.001 race | -0.52% |
| Jake Elkins | 2019 | 20:17.001 race | 20:11.001 race | -0.49% |
| Shreya Jain | 2019 | 27:41.001 race | 27:33.001 race | -0.48% |
| Javi Werner | 2019 | 17:34.001 race | 17:29.001 race | -0.47% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2019 | 21:29.001 race | 21:23.001 race | -0.47% |
| Grant Coldren | 2019 | 19:21.002 races | 19:16.001 race | -0.43% |
| Yeabsira Gugssa | 2019 | 26:49.001 race | 26:43.001 race | -0.37% |
| Nashua Poreda | 2019 | 21:47.004 races | 21:44.001 race | -0.23% |
| George Madison | 2019 | 17:29.001 race | 17:28.001 race | -0.10% |
| Ally Gilbert | 2019 | 26:06.001 race | 26:05.001 race | -0.06% |
| Judy Xie | 2019 | 22:07.004 races | 22:07.001 race | 0.00% |
| Michael Thomas | 2019 | 18:50.001 race | 18:51.001 race | +0.09% |
| Lily Walsh | 2019 | 24:24.004 races | 24:30.001 race | +0.41% |
| Jessica Choe | 2019 | 26:50.002 races | 26:59.001 race | +0.56% |
| Lakshmi Bogelli | 2019 | 29:07.002 races | 29:18.001 race | +0.63% |
| Emelie Engstrom | 2019 | 28:07.001 race | 28:19.001 race | +0.71% |
| Will Cote | 2019 | 16:24.001 race | 16:31.001 race | +0.71% |
| Gigi Gillard | 2019 | 27:27.001 race | 27:40.001 race | +0.79% |
| Alex Hass | 2019 | 20:27.002 races | 20:37.001 race | +0.81% |
| Wren Fortunoff | 2019 | 22:02.001 race | 22:14.001 race | +0.91% |
| Jana Choe | 2019 | 29:09.002 races | 29:26.001 race | +0.97% |
| Selina Liu | 2019 | 26:10.002 races | 26:26.001 race | +1.02% |
| Charlie Poulin | 2019 | 26:12.004 races | 26:32.001 race | +1.27% |
| Brianna Zhang | 2019 | 24:18.001 race | 24:41.001 race | +1.58% |
| Jack Gilbert | 2019 | 20:12.002 races | 20:40.001 race | +2.31% |
| Aroon Sankoh | 2019 | 18:40.001 race | 19:11.001 race | +2.77% |
| Danielle Brennan | 2019 | 22:23.001 race | 23:08.001 race | +3.35% |
| Aila McEnroe | 2019 | 27:28.001 race | 28:32.001 race | +3.88% |
| Cara Chang | 2019 | 23:20.001 race | 24:15.001 race | +3.93% |
| Grace Stanton | 2019 | 23:23.001 race | 25:20.001 race | +8.34% |