Pairwise course analysis
St. Mark's School Championship Coursevs.RL 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
RL 5K Course runs slower
+3.32%
Roughly 39.8 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
226
Deep evidence
Median difference
+3.49%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+3.32%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.42%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
RL 5K Course fasterEvenRL 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+2.83% to +4.16%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Mark's School Championship Course | RL 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jia | 2024 | 25:30.001 race | 22:04.001 race | -13.46% |
| Charles Stevenson | 2019 | 27:45.002 races | 24:15.001 race | -12.61% |
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 27:43.002 races | 24:25.001 race | -11.91% |
| Alice Wang | 2024 | 28:14.004 races | 25:28.001 race | -9.80% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2022 | 21:08.001 race | 19:17.003 races | -8.75% |
| Noah Corso | 2024 | 25:01.001 race | 22:58.001 race | -8.19% |
| Jerry Qin | 2022 | 21:42.001 race | 20:12.001 race | -6.91% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 24:00.002 races | 22:45.001 race | -5.21% |
| Harvey Rupp | 2019 | 24:20.002 races | 23:06.001 race | -5.07% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 19:01.002 races | 18:07.001 race | -4.73% |
| Charlie Zhang | 2024 | 23:02.001 race | 22:04.001 race | -4.20% |
| Sarah Ku | 2022 | 29:49.002 races | 28:35.001 race | -4.14% |
| Elizabeth Nicholas | 2024 | 24:55.002 races | 23:56.001 race | -3.95% |
| John Weldon | 2019 | 20:21.002 races | 19:41.001 race | -3.28% |
| Aidan McCormick | 2019 | 24:26.002 races | 23:42.001 race | -3.00% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 23:31.002 races | 22:50.001 race | -2.91% |
| Eric Diop | 2022 | 18:44.001 race | 18:15.002 races | -2.58% |
| Elsbeth Kasparian | 2024 | 30:25.001 race | 29:42.001 race | -2.36% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 21:23.002 races | 20:53.001 race | -2.34% |
| Carter Bartel | 2022 | 18:51.002 races | 18:27.001 race | -2.12% |
| Danielle Brennan | 2021 | 24:16.001 race | 23:48.001 race | -1.92% |
| Calvin Reid | 2022 | 21:52.001 race | 21:28.003 races | -1.83% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 22:17.002 races | 21:56.001 race | -1.57% |
| Charlie Hall | 2022 | 18:54.002 races | 18:37.001 race | -1.50% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 21:29.002 races | 21:15.001 race | -1.09% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2021 | 23:07.001 race | 22:53.001 race | -1.01% |
| Damien West | 2022 | 20:43.002 races | 20:31.001 race | -0.97% |
| Andreas Bai | 2024 | 24:26.001 race | 24:12.001 race | -0.95% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2021 | 23:39.001 race | 23:26.001 race | -0.92% |
| Mia McLean | 2021 | 23:19.001 race | 23:07.001 race | -0.86% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2021 | 23:52.001 race | 23:40.001 race | -0.84% |
| Ryan Cannistraro | 2019 | 26:30.002 races | 26:17.001 race | -0.82% |
| Levi Harrison | 2022 | 18:22.001 race | 18:13.003 races | -0.82% |
| Patrick Albers | 2022 | 18:23.002 races | 18:14.001 race | -0.82% |
| David Hermanson | 2022 | 19:31.002 races | 19:22.001 race | -0.77% |
| Sydney Nelson | 2022 | 26:04.001 race | 25:52.001 race | -0.77% |
| Ben Guenther | 2022 | 18:23.002 races | 18:18.001 race | -0.45% |
| Lauren Kim | 2024 | 30:27.001 race | 30:20.001 race | -0.38% |
| Colin Anderson | 2022 | 20:34.001 race | 20:30.001 race | -0.32% |
| Eric Zhou | 2022 | 21:09.001 race | 21:05.001 race | -0.32% |
| Noah Douglas | 2022 | 17:58.002 races | 17:55.001 race | -0.28% |
| Keenan Billings | 2024 | 18:44.001 race | 18:41.001 race | -0.27% |
| James Pener | 2021 | 18:46.001 race | 18:44.001 race | -0.18% |
| Violet Zhang | 2024 | 28:15.001 race | 28:14.001 race | -0.06% |
| Zach Heaton | 2022 | 21:20.001 race | 21:20.003 races | 0.00% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 21:57.002 races | 21:57.001 race | 0.00% |
| Justin Hildebrandt | 2024 | 23:46.001 race | 23:47.001 race | +0.07% |
| Kitso Paulson | 2021 | 21:44.001 race | 21:45.001 race | +0.08% |
| Christopher Hovet | 2022 | 17:45.002 races | 17:46.001 race | +0.09% |
| Vivian Cain-Weingram | 2024 | 22:20.001 race | 22:22.001 race | +0.15% |
| Max Daniello | 2022 | 20:35.001 race | 20:37.001 race | +0.16% |
| Alex Cheng | 2022 | 18:29.002 races | 18:31.001 race | +0.18% |
| Keenan Billings | 2021 | 20:03.001 race | 20:06.001 race | +0.25% |
| Shane McCauley | 2021 | 22:00.001 race | 22:04.001 race | +0.30% |
| Michael Lu | 2022 | 22:16.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +0.37% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2021 | 21:54.001 race | 22:01.001 race | +0.53% |
| Molly Sheehan | 2024 | 23:26.001 race | 23:34.001 race | +0.57% |
| Tim Churchill | 2022 | 17:53.002 races | 18:00.001 race | +0.65% |
| Akshay Kumar | 2022 | 19:43.001 race | 19:51.003 races | +0.68% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2021 | 19:04.001 race | 19:12.001 race | +0.70% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2021 | 23:18.001 race | 23:29.001 race | +0.79% |
| Brianna Zhang | 2022 | 25:33.002 races | 25:46.001 race | +0.85% |
| Michael Thomas | 2022 | 18:31.001 race | 18:41.002 races | +0.90% |
| Robert Hong | 2022 | 22:57.001 race | 23:10.001 race | +0.94% |
| Colleen Leary | 2021 | 23:47.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +0.98% |
| Michael Scully | 2021 | 21:38.001 race | 21:51.001 race | +1.00% |
| Charles Donahue | 2019 | 18:52.002 races | 19:04.001 race | +1.06% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2021 | 26:18.001 race | 26:35.001 race | +1.08% |
| James Donahue | 2019 | 17:49.002 races | 18:01.001 race | +1.12% |
| Christina Chen | 2022 | 24:40.002 races | 24:57.001 race | +1.15% |
| Will Grimes | 2022 | 20:13.001 race | 20:27.001 race | +1.15% |
| Lang Burgess | 2022 | 26:36.002 races | 26:55.001 race | +1.19% |
| Kofi Fordjour | 2022 | 16:34.001 race | 16:46.003 races | +1.21% |
| Owen Cronan | 2022 | 21:20.002 races | 21:37.001 race | +1.33% |
| Noah Avram | 2024 | 24:16.001 race | 24:36.001 race | +1.37% |
| Will McLane | 2022 | 18:05.002 races | 18:21.001 race | +1.47% |
| Eric Ge | 2022 | 19:06.002 races | 19:23.001 race | +1.48% |
| Eric Archerman | 2022 | 19:32.001 race | 19:50.001 race | +1.54% |
| Ryder Cavanagh | 2022 | 18:48.002 races | 19:06.001 race | +1.60% |
| Anders Caspersen | 2022 | 20:48.002 races | 21:08.001 race | +1.60% |
| Hannah Bernstein | 2021 | 22:24.001 race | 22:46.001 race | +1.64% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2021 | 19:24.001 race | 19:44.001 race | +1.72% |
| Liam Walsh | 2022 | 19:13.001 race | 19:33.001 race | +1.73% |
| Matthew Loose | 2022 | 20:07.002 races | 20:28.001 race | +1.74% |
| Carter Lightburn | 2022 | 19:52.001 race | 20:13.001 race | +1.76% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2021 | 23:11.001 race | 23:36.001 race | +1.80% |
| Abraham Tolkoff | 2019 | 19:57.002 races | 20:20.001 race | +1.92% |
| Haotong Xue | 2024 | 18:57.001 race | 19:19.001 race | +1.93% |
| Megan Corry | 2021 | 23:13.001 race | 23:40.001 race | +1.94% |
| Trip Wight | 2022 | 21:04.002 races | 21:29.001 race | +1.98% |
| Tori Reece | 2022 | 24:18.001 race | 24:47.001 race | +1.99% |
| Emilia Raviola | 2024 | 23:26.001 race | 23:54.001 race | +1.99% |
| Cole Gaynor | 2021 | 20:22.001 race | 20:49.001 race | +2.21% |
| Scarlett Hawkins | 2024 | 20:04.001 race | 20:31.001 race | +2.24% |
| Ryan Chiari | 2019 | 20:13.002 races | 20:42.001 race | +2.39% |
| Theodore Choe | 2023 | 18:07.701 race | 18:34.001 race | +2.42% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2022 | 20:15.001 race | 20:45.001 race | +2.47% |
| Jace LiVigni | 2024 | 18:42.001 race | 19:10.001 race | +2.50% |
| Amory Forman | 2024 | 20:16.001 race | 20:48.001 race | +2.63% |
| Katie Wipf | 2021 | 21:44.001 race | 22:20.001 race | +2.76% |
| Peilin Li | 2024 | 23:13.001 race | 23:53.001 race | +2.87% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 19:29.002 races | 20:03.001 race | +2.91% |
| Eloise Daniello | 2021 | 23:13.001 race | 23:55.001 race | +3.02% |
| Chase Bellamy | 2022 | 20:48.002 races | 21:26.001 race | +3.04% |
| Jason Louie | 2024 | 18:28.001 race | 19:02.001 race | +3.07% |
| Alex Sherman | 2023 | 20:17.101 race | 20:55.001 race | +3.11% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 20:54.001 race | 21:34.001 race | +3.19% |
| Machias Poreda | 2023 | 21:00.703 races | 21:41.001 race | +3.20% |
| Jeff Wang | 2022 | 24:52.002 races | 25:42.002 races | +3.35% |
| Ching Hei (Andre) Leung | 2024 | 22:21.001 race | 23:06.001 race | +3.36% |
| Jack Lionette | 2022 | 16:47.001 race | 17:21.001 race | +3.38% |
| Mathias Why | 2022 | 19:20.001 race | 20:00.003 races | +3.45% |
| Aidan Humphreys | 2019 | 20:18.002 races | 21:00.001 race | +3.45% |
| Jeremy Gall | 2022 | 19:22.001 race | 20:03.001 race | +3.53% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2021 | 22:29.001 race | 23:17.001 race | +3.56% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2024 | 18:58.001 race | 19:40.001 race | +3.69% |
| Arnav Harve | 2022 | 18:48.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +3.72% |
| Esme Campbell | 2024 | 20:01.001 race | 20:46.001 race | +3.75% |
| Wesley Xue | 2024 | 24:00.001 race | 24:54.001 race | +3.75% |
| Diego Abadie | 2024 | 18:01.001 race | 18:42.001 race | +3.79% |
| John (Jack) Tompros | 2022 | 20:31.001 race | 21:18.003 races | +3.82% |
| Jace Livingi | 2023 | 19:28.301 race | 20:13.001 race | +3.83% |
| Eliot Saad | 2024 | 19:12.001 race | 19:57.001 race | +3.91% |
| Eric Zhu | 2022 | 20:00.001 race | 20:47.002 races | +3.92% |
| Liam Warren | 2022 | 20:41.002 races | 21:30.001 race | +3.95% |
| Ian Choe | 2022 | 27:19.004 races | 28:24.001 race | +3.97% |
| Chloe Clifford | 2021 | 21:19.001 race | 22:10.001 race | +3.99% |
| Eric Zhang | 2023 | 21:41.303 races | 22:34.001 race | +4.05% |
| Andreu Beltran | 2024 | 18:31.001 race | 19:16.001 race | +4.05% |
| Emilio Manz | 2022 | 20:11.001 race | 21:01.001 race | +4.13% |
| Matthew Abati | 2023 | 19:32.501 race | 20:21.001 race | +4.14% |
| Adair Johnson | 2024 | 24:11.001 race | 25:12.001 race | +4.20% |
| Kailyn Love | 2024 | 22:45.001 race | 23:43.001 race | +4.25% |
| Ben Nissenbaum | 2022 | 23:43.001 race | 24:44.001 race | +4.29% |
| Andrew Correia | 2021 | 19:55.001 race | 20:47.001 race | +4.35% |
| Eric Liang | 2022 | 21:27.001 race | 22:25.001 race | +4.51% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2024 | 21:49.001 race | 22:48.001 race | +4.51% |
| Margot Murphy-Hara | 2024 | 23:55.001 race | 25:00.001 race | +4.53% |
| Ford Legg | 2021 | 18:42.001 race | 19:33.001 race | +4.55% |
| Elizabeth De Ramel | 2024 | 22:40.001 race | 23:42.001 race | +4.56% |
| Jason Louie | 2023 | 18:58.501 race | 19:51.001 race | +4.61% |
| Vivan Das | 2022 | 18:23.002 races | 19:14.001 race | +4.62% |
| Jack Butterworth | 2024 | 19:48.001 race | 20:44.001 race | +4.71% |
| David Moon | 2024 | 23:01.001 race | 24:08.001 race | +4.85% |
| Steven Zhang | 2023 | 18:47.703 races | 19:43.001 race | +4.90% |
| Will Frazier | 2024 | 20:06.001 race | 21:06.001 race | +4.98% |
| Dylan Zaterka | 2023 | 20:37.703 races | 21:40.001 race | +5.03% |
| Armand Matijasevic | 2024 | 19:50.001 race | 20:50.001 race | +5.04% |
| Emlyn Joseph | 2023 | 19:44.901 race | 20:46.001 race | +5.16% |
| Benjamin Koper | 2019 | 20:31.002 races | 21:35.001 race | +5.20% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 18:33.001 race | 19:31.001 race | +5.21% |
| Alexander Cesaretti | 2023 | 19:36.501 race | 20:39.001 race | +5.31% |
| Gabriel (Gabby) Guerrero | 2023 | 17:37.001 race | 18:34.001 race | +5.39% |
| Finley Long | 2024 | 19:38.001 race | 20:42.001 race | +5.43% |
| Brendan Reichard | 2022 | 20:49.001 race | 21:57.002 races | +5.44% |
| Felix Stuart | 2024 | 20:20.001 race | 21:28.001 race | +5.57% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2021 | 20:31.001 race | 21:40.001 race | +5.61% |
| Jacob Snell | 2022 | 19:22.004 races | 20:30.001 race | +5.85% |
| Bennett Jones | 2022 | 17:56.004 races | 19:00.001 race | +5.95% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2024 | 19:28.001 race | 20:38.001 race | +5.99% |
| Jacob Snell | 2023 | 19:02.002 races | 20:12.001 race | +6.13% |
| William Nass | 2024 | 19:32.001 race | 20:44.001 race | +6.14% |
| William Nass | 2023 | 19:19.801 race | 20:32.001 race | +6.23% |
| Henry Wang | 2022 | 20:28.002 races | 21:48.001 race | +6.51% |
| Torey Mathews | 2024 | 26:05.001 race | 27:49.001 race | +6.65% |
| Quinn Thomson | 2022 | 22:09.001 race | 23:40.003 races | +6.85% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2022 | 20:12.002 races | 21:35.001 race | +6.85% |
| Kevin Farmer | 2023 | 19:22.801 race | 20:43.001 race | +6.90% |
| Eli Berk | 2024 | 20:38.001 race | 22:05.001 race | +7.03% |
| Amina Cifric | 2022 | 25:03.002 races | 26:49.001 race | +7.05% |
| Zidan Graham | 2024 | 23:12.001 race | 24:51.001 race | +7.11% |
| Leila Blake | 2024 | 21:43.001 race | 23:16.001 race | +7.14% |
| Isaac Wu | 2024 | 21:00.001 race | 22:30.001 race | +7.14% |
| Henry Wang | 2023 | 19:54.503 races | 21:20.001 race | +7.16% |
| Eric Zhang | 2022 | 20:56.004 races | 22:27.001 race | +7.25% |
| Gratian Ting | 2024 | 20:41.001 race | 22:12.001 race | +7.33% |
| Bear Brooks | 2022 | 17:18.002 races | 18:36.001 race | +7.51% |
| David Xiong | 2024 | 18:18.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +7.56% |
| Grant Kim | 2024 | 21:30.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +7.67% |
| Beckett Dubovik | 2024 | 20:01.001 race | 21:34.001 race | +7.74% |
| Emlyn Joseph | 2024 | 19:19.001 race | 20:50.001 race | +7.85% |
| James Nichols-Worley | 2022 | 20:35.005 races | 22:12.001 race | +7.85% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 22:07.002 races | 23:52.001 race | +7.91% |
| Brian Zheng | 2022 | 20:46.002 races | 22:25.001 race | +7.95% |
| Amelia Barlow | 2022 | 24:21.002 races | 26:18.001 race | +8.01% |
| Alex Sherman | 2024 | 19:28.001 race | 21:02.001 race | +8.05% |
| AJ Gorman | 2022 | 17:23.005 races | 18:47.001 race | +8.05% |
| Garner Thompson | 2019 | 20:04.002 races | 21:41.001 race | +8.06% |
| Thomas Savage | 2022 | 20:02.001 race | 21:40.002 races | +8.15% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2021 | 25:26.001 race | 27:33.001 race | +8.32% |
| Grant Coldren | 2019 | 20:08.002 races | 21:49.001 race | +8.36% |
| Dion Cheung | 2024 | 25:11.001 race | 27:18.001 race | +8.41% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2022 | 20:32.001 race | 22:19.001 race | +8.69% |
| Kogo Bennsion | 2022 | 20:17.002 races | 22:04.001 race | +8.79% |
| Sophia Matherly | 2022 | 24:21.002 races | 26:31.001 race | +8.90% |
| Eli Kream | 2019 | 23:42.002 races | 25:50.001 race | +9.00% |
| Sebastian Rome | 2022 | 21:46.004 races | 23:44.001 race | +9.04% |
| Aryan Mago | 2022 | 22:07.002 races | 24:07.001 race | +9.04% |
| Griffin MacDonald | 2024 | 21:19.001 race | 23:15.001 race | +9.07% |
| Mason Peng | 2022 | 23:41.002 races | 25:50.001 race | +9.08% |
| Chris Peng | 2024 | 22:52.001 race | 24:57.001 race | +9.11% |
| Kailin Shi | 2024 | 24:44.002 races | 27:01.001 race | +9.23% |
| Lila Graves | 2022 | 27:42.002 races | 30:21.001 race | +9.57% |
| Hudson Li | 2024 | 20:45.001 race | 22:45.001 race | +9.64% |
| Aditya Shrivastava | 2022 | 24:43.002 races | 27:11.001 race | +9.98% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2022 | 23:29.002 races | 25:52.001 race | +10.15% |
| Jeff Lei | 2022 | 24:16.003 races | 26:46.001 race | +10.30% |
| Cora Knoell | 2022 | 22:29.002 races | 24:51.001 race | +10.53% |
| Emily Williams | 2021 | 23:42.001 race | 26:17.001 race | +10.90% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2022 | 23:28.002 races | 26:02.001 race | +10.94% |
| Ray Gao | 2022 | 23:50.003 races | 26:30.001 race | +11.19% |
| Alex Chen | 2022 | 23:25.003 races | 26:03.001 race | +11.25% |
| Arjun Yerabothu | 2022 | 27:31.003 races | 30:47.001 race | +11.87% |
| Skylar Bedard | 2022 | 20:44.002 races | 23:13.001 race | +11.98% |
| Caitlin Fitzgerald | 2021 | 22:30.001 race | 25:13.001 race | +12.07% |
| Will Ryckman | 2022 | 20:29.004 races | 22:58.001 race | +12.12% |
| Isaiah Raore | 2023 | 20:43.002 races | 23:17.001 race | +12.39% |
| Max Rochford | 2022 | 24:05.002 races | 27:05.001 race | +12.46% |
| Grace Maloney | 2022 | 25:08.002 races | 28:16.001 race | +12.47% |
| Jacob Cifuentes | 2022 | 23:07.004 races | 26:09.001 race | +13.12% |
| Jason Zhu | 2022 | 24:40.002 races | 28:01.001 race | +13.58% |
| Peter Abenante | 2022 | 21:50.002 races | 24:50.001 race | +13.74% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2022 | 19:15.001 race | 22:06.004 races | +14.81% |
| Mike Gao | 2024 | 23:00.001 race | 26:41.001 race | +16.01% |
| Kevin Yao | 2022 | 20:53.002 races | 24:16.001 race | +16.20% |
| Lousia Corbett | 2024 | 22:04.001 race | 27:35.001 race | +25.00% |