Pairwise course analysis
St. Sebastian's 5K Coursevs.Groton School
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Groton School runs faster
-5.03%
Roughly 1:00 faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
34
Developing evidence
Median difference
-5.29%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-5.03%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.02%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-6.26% to -3.44%
Scale shown
-8% to +8%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Groton School | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Parker-Sartori | 2019 | 28:56.001 race | 24:48.001 race | -14.29% |
| Oscar Caprano | 2019 | 24:40.001 race | 21:43.001 race | -11.96% |
| Alex Avram | 2019 | 27:33.001 race | 24:54.001 race | -9.62% |
| Louis Levy | 2019 | 22:27.001 race | 20:32.001 race | -8.54% |
| Alex Wu | 2019 | 19:43.001 race | 18:03.001 race | -8.45% |
| Tim Guan | 2019 | 29:20.001 race | 26:56.001 race | -8.18% |
| Zane Davis | 2019 | 24:09.001 race | 22:12.001 race | -8.07% |
| Ekaum Soni | 2019 | 32:28.001 race | 29:55.001 race | -7.85% |
| Andrew Monsalve | 2019 | 22:16.001 race | 20:37.001 race | -7.41% |
| Theo Goldman | 2019 | 22:43.001 race | 21:09.001 race | -6.90% |
| Ford Legg | 2019 | 22:11.001 race | 20:40.001 race | -6.84% |
| Charles Chen | 2019 | 23:20.001 race | 21:45.001 race | -6.79% |
| Augustus Hawk | 2019 | 22:13.001 race | 20:47.001 race | -6.45% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2022 | 19:48.001 race | 18:33.001 race | -6.31% |
| Sam Modur | 2019 | 24:10.001 race | 22:41.001 race | -6.14% |
| Christian Batemen | 2019 | 21:47.001 race | 20:31.001 race | -5.81% |
| Bobby Brady | 2022 | 24:30.001 race | 23:10.001 race | -5.44% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2019 | 19:46.001 race | 18:45.001 race | -5.14% |
| Nicholas Tao | 2019 | 20:40.001 race | 19:43.001 race | -4.60% |
| Chris Thompson | 2022 | 20:39.001 race | 19:49.001 race | -4.04% |
| Sam Rabieh | 2019 | 18:03.001 race | 17:20.001 race | -3.97% |
| Julian Li | 2019 | 19:37.001 race | 18:52.001 race | -3.82% |
| Owen Dowden | 2019 | 27:32.001 race | 26:42.001 race | -3.03% |
| William Hansen | 2022 | 20:40.001 race | 20:04.001 race | -2.90% |
| Mathew Hong | 2019 | 19:08.001 race | 18:36.001 race | -2.79% |
| Samuel Hinman | 2022 | 18:44.001 race | 18:15.001 race | -2.58% |
| Ryan Loughran | 2019 | 19:13.001 race | 18:48.001 race | -2.17% |
| Jack Connors | 2022 | 18:16.001 race | 17:56.001 race | -1.82% |
| Jake Elkins | 2019 | 19:54.001 race | 19:41.001 race | -1.09% |
| John Joyce | 2022 | 18:33.001 race | 18:21.001 race | -1.08% |
| Matthew Choumenkovitch | 2022 | 24:36.001 race | 24:40.001 race | +0.27% |
| David Min | 2019 | 29:19.001 race | 29:47.001 race | +1.59% |
| Eddie Zhang | 2022 | 22:12.001 race | 22:39.001 race | +2.03% |
| Michael Kalinichenko | 2022 | 26:28.001 race | 28:37.001 race | +8.12% |