Pairwise course analysis
St. Sebastian's 5K Coursevs.Noble and Greenough School 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Noble and Greenough School 5K runs slower
+0.38%
Roughly 4.6 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
23
Developing evidence
Median difference
+0.41%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.38%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.75%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-0.73% to +1.62%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Noble and Greenough School 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Helzberg | 2022 | 22:20.001 race | 21:22.001 race | -4.33% |
| Sam Blank | 2022 | 21:53.001 race | 21:13.001 race | -3.05% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2022 | 18:27.001 race | 17:54.001 race | -2.98% |
| Heng Leong | 2022 | 21:51.001 race | 21:17.001 race | -2.59% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2022 | 20:05.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -2.24% |
| Alex Young | 2022 | 20:07.001 race | 19:47.001 race | -1.66% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2022 | 18:48.001 race | 18:33.001 race | -1.33% |
| John Joyce | 2023 | 17:38.001 race | 17:29.001 race | -0.85% |
| Alexander Wasynczuk | 2023 | 21:00.001 race | 20:53.001 race | -0.56% |
| Andrew Young | 2022 | 21:12.001 race | 21:06.001 race | -0.47% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2023 | 18:12.001 race | 18:11.001 race | -0.09% |
| Justin Jang | 2022 | 20:22.001 race | 20:27.001 race | +0.41% |
| Chris Thompson | 2023 | 19:58.001 race | 20:04.001 race | +0.50% |
| Jack Connors | 2023 | 17:55.001 race | 18:04.001 race | +0.84% |
| Joseph Koh | 2023 | 20:34.001 race | 20:49.001 race | +1.22% |
| Eddie Zhang | 2023 | 21:53.001 race | 22:16.001 race | +1.75% |
| Taylor Holmes | 2023 | 20:30.001 race | 20:57.001 race | +2.20% |
| Jonathan Demosthene | 2023 | 21:14.001 race | 21:42.001 race | +2.20% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2022 | 21:16.001 race | 21:46.001 race | +2.35% |
| Andrew Correia | 2022 | 22:18.001 race | 22:54.001 race | +2.69% |
| Liam Gavin | 2023 | 21:46.001 race | 22:22.001 race | +2.76% |
| Abner Machuca Diaz | 2023 | 21:34.001 race | 23:00.001 race | +6.65% |
| Luis Sosa Espinal | 2023 | 22:01.001 race | 23:41.001 race | +7.57% |