Pairwise course analysis
Washington Park 5K Coursevs.Governor's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Governor's 5K Course runs slower
+3.93%
Roughly 47.2 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
186
Deep evidence
Median difference
+4.03%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+3.93%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.58%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Governor's 5K Course fasterEvenGovernor's 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+3.09% to +4.66%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Washington Park 5K Course | Governor's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Liu | 2021 | 31:04.002 races | 26:14.001 race | -15.56% |
| Cameron Gonzalez | 2021 | 20:56.003 races | 17:48.001 race | -14.97% |
| Henry Yan | 2021 | 26:28.001 race | 23:45.001 race | -10.26% |
| John Brice | 2024 | 23:41.001 race | 22:02.001 race | -6.97% |
| Jace Lee | 2021 | 26:47.001 race | 24:59.001 race | -6.72% |
| Noah Divon | 2021 | 27:41.002 races | 25:56.001 race | -6.32% |
| Andrew Correia | 2021 | 21:11.001 race | 19:53.001 race | -6.14% |
| Juan José Torres Lara | 2021 | 20:20.002 races | 19:06.001 race | -6.07% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2021 | 19:20.001 race | 18:13.001 race | -5.78% |
| Vinh Do | 2021 | 24:18.002 races | 22:59.001 race | -5.42% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2021 | 22:05.001 race | 21:05.001 race | -4.53% |
| Tony Guo | 2019 | 22:23.001 race | 21:23.001 race | -4.47% |
| Joseph Huang | 2021 | 23:05.003 races | 22:05.001 race | -4.33% |
| Justin Jang | 2021 | 21:50.001 race | 20:58.001 race | -3.97% |
| Nicolas Huaco | 2021 | 19:02.003 races | 18:23.001 race | -3.42% |
| Griffin Jones | 2021 | 19:59.001 race | 19:21.001 race | -3.17% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2021 | 23:25.001 race | 22:45.001 race | -2.85% |
| Thompson Zhou | 2021 | 22:50.003 races | 22:11.001 race | -2.85% |
| Sam Poulin | 2021 | 19:05.003 races | 18:42.001 race | -2.01% |
| Ken Suzuki | 2021 | 20:04.003 races | 19:44.001 race | -1.66% |
| Ellie Gable | 2021 | 23:29.002 races | 23:06.001 race | -1.63% |
| Richard Shum | 2019 | 21:49.003 races | 21:28.001 race | -1.60% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2023 | 19:15.001 race | 18:57.001 race | -1.56% |
| Tristan Parmentier | 2021 | 20:36.002 races | 20:18.001 race | -1.46% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2022 | 21:19.201 race | 21:01.001 race | -1.42% |
| Amanda Gary | 2021 | 24:24.001 race | 24:06.001 race | -1.23% |
| Bradley Weldon | 2021 | 20:42.002 races | 20:27.001 race | -1.21% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2023 | 19:49.001 race | 19:37.001 race | -1.01% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 18:11.001 race | 18:01.001 race | -0.92% |
| Jack Xie | 2021 | 24:19.001 race | 24:06.001 race | -0.89% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2023 | 21:38.001 race | 21:27.001 race | -0.85% |
| Abdel Barakat | 2019 | 19:49.003 races | 19:42.001 race | -0.59% |
| Carver Porter | 2023 | 20:26.001 race | 20:22.001 race | -0.33% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2023 | 18:26.001 race | 18:24.001 race | -0.18% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2021 | 21:07.001 race | 21:05.001 race | -0.16% |
| Evi Robb | 2021 | 23:45.002 races | 23:44.001 race | -0.07% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2023 | 24:36.001 race | 24:40.001 race | +0.27% |
| Caroline Quirk | 2021 | 29:01.002 races | 29:06.002 races | +0.29% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 23:05.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +0.29% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 23:00.001 race | 23:04.001 race | +0.29% |
| Robert Peirce | 2024 | 22:57.001 race | 23:02.001 race | +0.36% |
| Jack Hutchison | 2019 | 18:25.003 races | 18:30.001 race | +0.45% |
| Alexander Behn | 2023 | 20:13.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +0.58% |
| Ross Stewart | 2019 | 18:20.003 races | 18:27.001 race | +0.64% |
| George Carroll | 2023 | 20:51.001 race | 20:59.001 race | +0.64% |
| Oliver Massey | 2024 | 20:49.001 race | 20:57.001 race | +0.64% |
| Alexandre White | 2023 | 22:17.001 race | 22:26.001 race | +0.67% |
| Liv Ding | 2024 | 27:34.001 race | 27:50.001 race | +0.97% |
| Lily Manley | 2019 | 26:23.003 races | 26:41.001 race | +1.14% |
| Connor Keleher | 2024 | 23:38.001 race | 23:57.001 race | +1.34% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2023 | 18:30.001 race | 18:45.001 race | +1.35% |
| Dung Pham | 2019 | 23:56.002 races | 24:17.001 race | +1.46% |
| Jack Kastner | 2023 | 22:09.001 race | 22:29.001 race | +1.50% |
| Andrew Mottur | 2019 | 17:38.003 races | 17:55.001 race | +1.61% |
| Colleen Leary | 2022 | 23:36.201 race | 23:59.001 race | +1.61% |
| Alex Young | 2021 | 21:39.001 race | 22:00.002 races | +1.62% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2024 | 18:29.001 race | 18:47.001 race | +1.62% |
| Thompson Zhou | 2019 | 23:03.002 races | 23:26.001 race | +1.66% |
| Cole Zaleski | 2019 | 21:19.001 race | 21:41.001 race | +1.72% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2024 | 19:31.001 race | 19:53.001 race | +1.88% |
| Adrian Tan | 2023 | 28:03.001 race | 28:37.001 race | +2.02% |
| Mark Price | 2023 | 24:42.001 race | 25:12.001 race | +2.02% |
| Erin Green | 2022 | 27:11.901 race | 27:46.001 race | +2.09% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2023 | 21:14.001 race | 21:41.001 race | +2.12% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2024 | 22:18.001 race | 22:47.001 race | +2.17% |
| Noah Naddaff-Slocum | 2019 | 20:49.001 race | 21:17.001 race | +2.24% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2019 | 20:21.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +2.46% |
| Eita Fuse | 2023 | 18:05.001 race | 18:32.001 race | +2.49% |
| Maksim Roman | 2023 | 18:55.001 race | 19:24.001 race | +2.56% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2022 | 22:10.901 race | 22:45.001 race | +2.56% |
| Peter Iascone | 2019 | 22:05.002 races | 22:40.001 race | +2.64% |
| Calvin Cochran | 2019 | 20:02.002 races | 20:34.001 race | +2.66% |
| Sam Poulin | 2019 | 19:29.003 races | 20:01.001 race | +2.74% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2021 | 24:06.002 races | 24:46.001 race | +2.77% |
| William Trautz | 2023 | 17:21.001 race | 17:50.001 race | +2.79% |
| Mahiro Yamikawa | 2019 | 17:49.003 races | 18:20.001 race | +2.90% |
| Alexa Adams | 2022 | 23:57.701 race | 24:41.001 race | +3.01% |
| Nathan Anderson | 2019 | 18:13.003 races | 18:46.001 race | +3.02% |
| Izzy Cheney | 2019 | 23:10.003 races | 23:57.001 race | +3.38% |
| Calvin Pagan | 2023 | 22:39.001 race | 23:25.001 race | +3.38% |
| KJ Irving | 2024 | 23:42.001 race | 24:32.001 race | +3.52% |
| Jameso Flaherty-Clapham | 2022 | 28:12.001 race | 29:13.001 race | +3.61% |
| Grace Martin | 2019 | 23:31.002 races | 24:22.001 race | +3.61% |
| Ellie Gable | 2019 | 26:48.002 races | 27:49.001 race | +3.79% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2024 | 26:04.001 race | 27:04.001 race | +3.84% |
| Caitlyn Hsu | 2024 | 25:03.001 race | 26:01.001 race | +3.86% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2022 | 21:43.501 race | 22:34.001 race | +3.87% |
| Kevin Weldon | 2023 | 22:21.001 race | 23:14.001 race | +3.95% |
| Kayla Clifford | 2019 | 25:43.003 races | 26:44.001 race | +3.95% |
| Cam Dailey | 2019 | 21:51.001 race | 22:43.001 race | +3.97% |
| Lily Heaton | 2022 | 26:18.301 race | 27:21.001 race | +3.97% |
| Allen Zheng | 2024 | 23:18.002 races | 24:14.001 race | +4.01% |
| Zach Rogers | 2019 | 19:07.003 races | 19:53.001 race | +4.01% |
| Harper Weng | 2019 | 30:51.002 races | 32:06.001 race | +4.05% |
| Sophie Chatfield | 2024 | 24:41.002 races | 25:42.001 race | +4.12% |
| Steven Silvers | 2024 | 18:32.001 race | 19:18.001 race | +4.14% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2023 | 18:02.001 race | 18:47.001 race | +4.16% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2024 | 19:30.001 race | 20:19.001 race | +4.19% |
| Ethan Sweeney | 2019 | 18:42.003 races | 19:30.001 race | +4.28% |
| Katie Wipf | 2022 | 22:14.501 race | 23:14.001 race | +4.46% |
| Lily Makepeace | 2024 | 23:38.002 races | 24:42.001 race | +4.51% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 19:10.001 race | 20:02.001 race | +4.52% |
| Evan Schneider | 2024 | 19:27.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +4.54% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2022 | 22:09.701 race | 23:11.001 race | +4.61% |
| Kiera Furness | 2024 | 30:46.001 race | 32:12.001 race | +4.66% |
| Emily Bunn | 2022 | 22:10.301 race | 23:13.001 race | +4.71% |
| Hopie Lovell | 2019 | 27:02.002 races | 28:19.001 race | +4.75% |
| Rhett Curtis | 2023 | 22:25.001 race | 23:29.001 race | +4.76% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 20:54.001 race | 21:54.001 race | +4.78% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2023 | 19:43.001 race | 20:41.001 race | +4.90% |
| Ryan Noreke | 2022 | 19:54.201 race | 20:54.001 race | +5.01% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2022 | 23:34.601 race | 24:46.001 race | +5.05% |
| Antonio Martinez | 2024 | 19:26.001 race | 20:25.001 race | +5.06% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2024 | 24:54.001 race | 26:10.001 race | +5.09% |
| Anne Le Gassick | 2019 | 28:59.003 races | 30:28.001 race | +5.12% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2022 | 28:35.401 race | 30:05.001 race | +5.22% |
| Jake Devries | 2022 | 21:50.601 race | 23:01.001 race | +5.37% |
| Megan Corry | 2022 | 26:23.101 race | 27:50.001 race | +5.49% |
| Sawyer Helzberg | 2019 | 21:49.001 race | 23:01.001 race | +5.50% |
| Sebastian Briggs | 2024 | 21:19.002 races | 22:30.001 race | +5.55% |
| Natalie Meleo | 2024 | 24:19.002 races | 25:42.001 race | +5.69% |
| Duncan Kilbride | 2023 | 21:13.001 race | 22:27.001 race | +5.81% |
| Evan Schneider | 2022 | 21:08.101 race | 22:22.001 race | +5.83% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2019 | 23:07.001 race | 24:29.001 race | +5.91% |
| Luis Sosa Espinal | 2024 | 20:35.001 race | 21:50.001 race | +6.07% |
| Eric Liu | 2024 | 20:01.002 races | 21:16.001 race | +6.24% |
| Lily Davis | 2024 | 21:46.001 race | 23:08.001 race | +6.28% |
| Alexa Adams | 2024 | 24:03.001 race | 25:35.001 race | +6.38% |
| Alex Szynal | 2019 | 26:34.002 races | 28:16.001 race | +6.40% |
| Ing Thongchai | 2019 | 28:58.002 races | 30:50.001 race | +6.44% |
| Jerry Sang | 2019 | 25:35.001 race | 27:16.001 race | +6.58% |
| Winson Zhang | 2024 | 22:43.002 races | 24:17.001 race | +6.90% |
| John Joyce | 2024 | 16:36.001 race | 17:46.001 race | +7.03% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 19:20.001 race | 20:43.001 race | +7.16% |
| Kaitie Donahue | 2024 | 25:09.001 race | 26:57.001 race | +7.16% |
| Theo Teng | 2019 | 21:19.001 race | 22:51.001 race | +7.19% |
| Noah Divon | 2024 | 22:42.001 race | 24:21.001 race | +7.27% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2022 | 21:59.001 race | 23:35.001 race | +7.28% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2023 | 19:11.001 race | 20:35.001 race | +7.30% |
| Thaxton Frey | 2024 | 21:50.002 races | 23:27.001 race | +7.40% |
| George Madison | 2019 | 16:44.001 race | 17:59.001 race | +7.47% |
| Charles Jackivicz | 2024 | 17:35.002 races | 18:56.001 race | +7.68% |
| Ethan Xie | 2023 | 21:24.001 race | 23:04.001 race | +7.79% |
| Renee Martell | 2024 | 26:29.001 race | 28:34.001 race | +7.87% |
| Madeline Pike | 2022 | 23:20.901 race | 25:12.001 race | +7.93% |
| Maggie Xu | 2019 | 28:33.003 races | 30:51.001 race | +8.06% |
| Alex Yin | 2019 | 21:23.001 race | 23:09.001 race | +8.26% |
| Nicolas Huaco | 2024 | 16:59.002 races | 18:24.001 race | +8.34% |
| Oliver Wyner | 2019 | 21:25.001 race | 23:13.001 race | +8.40% |
| Ian Schmidek | 2023 | 23:57.001 race | 25:59.001 race | +8.49% |
| Conor Mannion | 2022 | 21:45.201 race | 23:37.001 race | +8.57% |
| Alexander Wasynczuk | 2024 | 19:20.001 race | 21:00.001 race | +8.62% |
| Charlie Gavin | 2022 | 18:14.601 race | 19:54.001 race | +9.08% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2024 | 18:01.001 race | 19:40.001 race | +9.16% |
| Lauren Torres-Rivera | 2019 | 30:38.002 races | 33:32.001 race | +9.47% |
| Seif El Gazaar | 2024 | 18:49.002 races | 20:37.001 race | +9.57% |
| Jeremy Bullock | 2024 | 16:47.002 races | 18:24.001 race | +9.63% |
| Merrick Brannigan | 2024 | 22:16.002 races | 24:25.001 race | +9.66% |
| Connor Bragg | 2024 | 25:08.001 race | 27:36.001 race | +9.81% |
| Aidan Pearsall | 2024 | 16:29.002 races | 18:07.001 race | +9.91% |
| Aila McEnroe | 2019 | 30:04.002 races | 33:04.001 race | +9.98% |
| Will Cote | 2019 | 16:07.001 race | 17:44.001 race | +10.03% |
| Michael Thomas | 2019 | 18:14.001 race | 20:04.001 race | +10.05% |
| R. Murphy | 2024 | 25:21.001 race | 27:54.001 race | +10.06% |
| Javi Werner | 2019 | 16:56.001 race | 18:40.001 race | +10.24% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2023 | 21:57.001 race | 24:13.001 race | +10.33% |
| Addy Vettel | 2019 | 19:27.001 race | 21:29.001 race | +10.45% |
| Joseph Koh | 2024 | 17:59.001 race | 19:52.001 race | +10.47% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2022 | 23:33.801 race | 26:05.001 race | +10.69% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2022 | 26:26.401 race | 29:21.001 race | +11.01% |
| Quinn Donovan | 2019 | 16:31.001 race | 18:21.001 race | +11.10% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2022 | 21:23.301 race | 23:48.001 race | +11.28% |
| Mark Henshon | 2019 | 16:06.001 race | 17:57.001 race | +11.49% |
| Nolan McKenna | 2019 | 17:42.001 race | 19:48.001 race | +11.86% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 25:05.001 race | 28:06.001 race | +12.03% |
| Natalie Kloman | 2021 | 28:16.001 race | 31:43.001 race | +12.21% |
| Armando Walters | 2019 | 19:51.001 race | 22:18.001 race | +12.34% |
| Alexander Messier | 2019 | 18:25.001 race | 20:46.001 race | +12.76% |
| Benjamin Hebbel | 2024 | 16:09.002 races | 18:16.001 race | +13.11% |
| Cameron Estrada | 2019 | 19:53.001 race | 22:32.001 race | +13.33% |
| Cormac Anderson | 2024 | 21:33.001 race | 24:26.001 race | +13.38% |
| Liam O'Connor | 2019 | 18:28.001 race | 21:04.001 race | +14.08% |
| John Harrington | 2019 | 18:27.001 race | 21:09.001 race | +14.63% |
| David (Hershie) Liebowitz | 2019 | 22:57.001 race | 26:19.001 race | +14.67% |
| Ava Palazzolo | 2021 | 26:23.001 race | 30:56.001 race | +17.25% |
| Luke Peabody | 2024 | 19:11.002 races | 22:47.001 race | +18.77% |