Pairwise course analysis
Washington Park 5K Coursevs.Nobles NEPSTA Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
These courses run about even
+0.14%
Roughly 1.7 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
81
Strong evidence
Median difference
+1.10%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.14%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.03%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Nobles NEPSTA Course fasterEvenNobles NEPSTA Course slower
Confidence interval
+0.87% to +1.98%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Washington Park 5K Course | Nobles NEPSTA Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Lu | 2019 | 20:34.001 race | 19:39.001 race | -4.46% |
| Paula Hornbostel | 2019 | 26:35.001 race | 25:48.001 race | -2.95% |
| Armando Walters | 2019 | 19:51.001 race | 19:16.001 race | -2.94% |
| Ashley Battiata | 2019 | 25:33.001 race | 24:56.001 race | -2.41% |
| Naila Strong | 2019 | 24:32.001 race | 23:59.001 race | -2.24% |
| Grace Martin | 2019 | 24:03.002 races | 23:34.001 race | -2.01% |
| Thomas Reichard | 2019 | 19:25.001 race | 19:02.001 race | -1.97% |
| Eric Diop | 2019 | 19:57.001 race | 19:35.001 race | -1.84% |
| Lindsay Davis | 2019 | 22:39.001 race | 22:17.001 race | -1.62% |
| Charlie Poulin | 2019 | 26:58.001 race | 26:32.001 race | -1.61% |
| Maggie Xu | 2019 | 29:03.003 races | 28:41.001 race | -1.26% |
| Sam Harris | 2019 | 20:44.001 race | 20:31.001 race | -1.05% |
| Daniela Ortiz | 2019 | 23:08.001 race | 22:55.001 race | -0.94% |
| Kaley Le Blanc | 2019 | 24:17.001 race | 24:05.001 race | -0.82% |
| Bart Lojanarungsiri | 2019 | 22:23.002 races | 22:12.001 race | -0.82% |
| Lwazi Bululu | 2019 | 19:00.001 race | 18:51.001 race | -0.79% |
| Dung Pham | 2019 | 23:23.002 races | 23:12.001 race | -0.78% |
| Emily Taylor | 2019 | 23:55.001 race | 23:45.001 race | -0.70% |
| Drew Kirk | 2019 | 18:34.002 races | 18:28.001 race | -0.54% |
| Lucy Anderson | 2019 | 24:37.001 race | 24:30.001 race | -0.47% |
| Vivan Das | 2019 | 19:02.001 race | 19:01.001 race | -0.09% |
| Theo Teng | 2019 | 21:19.001 race | 21:18.001 race | -0.08% |
| Phoebe Lynch | 2019 | 27:43.001 race | 27:42.001 race | -0.06% |
| Cameron Estrada | 2019 | 19:53.001 race | 19:54.001 race | +0.08% |
| Amy Sharma | 2019 | 19:29.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +0.09% |
| Oliver Wyner | 2019 | 21:25.001 race | 21:27.001 race | +0.16% |
| Nathan Anderson | 2019 | 18:10.003 races | 18:12.001 race | +0.18% |
| Ethan Sweeney | 2019 | 17:53.003 races | 17:56.001 race | +0.28% |
| Olivia Fayemi | 2019 | 27:57.001 race | 28:04.001 race | +0.42% |
| Jerry Sang | 2019 | 25:35.001 race | 25:42.001 race | +0.46% |
| Nolan McKenna | 2019 | 17:42.001 race | 17:47.001 race | +0.47% |
| Andria Bao | 2019 | 24:52.001 race | 25:00.001 race | +0.54% |
| Ingrid Yeung | 2019 | 24:08.001 race | 24:17.001 race | +0.62% |
| Nashua Poreda | 2019 | 21:34.001 race | 21:44.001 race | +0.77% |
| Katie Reveno | 2019 | 22:03.001 race | 22:14.001 race | +0.83% |
| Princess Alexander | 2019 | 24:45.001 race | 24:58.001 race | +0.88% |
| Ross Stewart | 2019 | 18:14.003 races | 18:24.001 race | +0.91% |
| Eve Elkins | 2019 | 23:42.001 race | 23:55.001 race | +0.91% |
| Andrew Mazza | 2019 | 17:39.001 race | 17:50.001 race | +1.04% |
| Alex Szynal | 2019 | 26:34.002 races | 26:51.001 race | +1.07% |
| Joshua Guo | 2019 | 18:11.001 race | 18:23.001 race | +1.10% |
| Sam Poulin | 2019 | 19:05.003 races | 19:19.001 race | +1.22% |
| Aisling O'Connell | 2019 | 22:14.001 race | 22:34.001 race | +1.50% |
| Abdel Barakat | 2019 | 18:32.003 races | 18:49.001 race | +1.53% |
| Mark Henshon | 2019 | 16:06.001 race | 16:21.001 race | +1.55% |
| Jack Wang | 2019 | 19:19.001 race | 19:38.001 race | +1.64% |
| Sophia Wu | 2019 | 23:19.001 race | 23:43.001 race | +1.72% |
| Ellie Gable | 2019 | 25:01.002 races | 25:28.001 race | +1.80% |
| Judy Xie | 2019 | 21:41.001 race | 22:07.001 race | +2.00% |
| Lily Walsh | 2019 | 23:59.001 race | 24:30.001 race | +2.15% |
| Sophia Deng | 2019 | 25:08.001 race | 25:44.001 race | +2.39% |
| Amy Ma | 2019 | 25:06.001 race | 25:43.001 race | +2.46% |
| Will Cote | 2019 | 16:07.001 race | 16:31.001 race | +2.48% |
| Helena Xie | 2019 | 24:17.001 race | 24:56.001 race | +2.68% |
| Izzy Cheney | 2019 | 22:40.003 races | 23:17.001 race | +2.72% |
| Stanislas Robert | 2019 | 18:10.001 race | 18:40.001 race | +2.75% |
| Ian Bayliss | 2019 | 18:24.001 race | 18:55.001 race | +2.81% |
| Thompson Zhou | 2019 | 22:23.002 races | 23:01.001 race | +2.83% |
| David Sullivan | 2019 | 17:46.001 race | 18:17.001 race | +2.91% |
| Quinn Donovan | 2019 | 16:31.001 race | 17:00.001 race | +2.93% |
| Derek Chang | 2019 | 17:34.001 race | 18:05.001 race | +2.94% |
| Andrew Mottur | 2019 | 16:49.003 races | 17:19.001 race | +2.97% |
| Mahiro Yamikawa | 2019 | 17:12.003 races | 17:43.001 race | +3.00% |
| Jack Lionette | 2019 | 16:59.001 race | 17:31.001 race | +3.14% |
| Jack Hutchison | 2019 | 17:34.003 races | 18:08.001 race | +3.23% |
| Javi Werner | 2019 | 16:56.001 race | 17:29.001 race | +3.25% |
| Michael Thomas | 2019 | 18:14.001 race | 18:51.001 race | +3.38% |
| Aitong (Ivy) Li | 2019 | 24:08.001 race | 24:58.001 race | +3.45% |
| Richard Shum | 2019 | 21:03.003 races | 21:51.001 race | +3.80% |
| Liam O'Connor | 2019 | 18:28.001 race | 19:16.001 race | +4.33% |
| George Madison | 2019 | 16:44.001 race | 17:28.001 race | +4.38% |
| Tyler Weisberg | 2019 | 17:44.001 race | 18:31.001 race | +4.42% |
| Alexander Messier | 2019 | 18:25.001 race | 19:14.001 race | +4.43% |
| Lily Manley | 2019 | 24:43.003 races | 25:49.001 race | +4.45% |
| Emelie Engstrom | 2019 | 27:03.001 race | 28:19.001 race | +4.68% |
| Kendall Sommers | 2019 | 22:20.001 race | 23:32.001 race | +5.37% |
| Zach Rogers | 2019 | 18:40.003 races | 19:41.001 race | +5.45% |
| Wren Fortunoff | 2019 | 20:56.001 race | 22:14.001 race | +6.21% |
| Aroon Sankoh | 2019 | 18:00.001 race | 19:11.001 race | +6.57% |
| Cara Chang | 2019 | 22:33.001 race | 24:15.001 race | +7.54% |
| Brianna Zhang | 2019 | 22:20.001 race | 24:41.001 race | +10.52% |