Pairwise course analysis
BB&N 5K Coursevs.RL 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
RL 5K Course runs slower
+9.54%
Roughly 1:54 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
225
Deep evidence
Median difference
+9.38%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+9.54%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+5.51%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
RL 5K Course fasterEvenRL 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+8.49% to +9.81%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | BB&N 5K Course | RL 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danielle Brennan | 2021 | 28:34.002 races | 23:48.001 race | -16.69% |
| Elsbeth Kasparian | 2024 | 31:31.001 race | 29:42.001 race | -5.76% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2023 | 20:35.001 race | 19:51.002 races | -3.56% |
| Mattia Farmer | 2024 | 31:09.001 race | 30:05.001 race | -3.42% |
| Charles Stevenson | 2019 | 24:43.001 race | 24:15.001 race | -1.89% |
| Chris Tillen | 2022 | 21:08.001 race | 20:59.001 race | -0.71% |
| John Weldon | 2019 | 19:39.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +0.17% |
| Ben Kaplan | 2024 | 24:26.001 race | 24:35.001 race | +0.61% |
| Aidan McGaugh | 2019 | 18:00.001 race | 18:07.001 race | +0.65% |
| Charles Wells | 2019 | 24:11.001 race | 24:25.001 race | +0.96% |
| Ethan Train | 2022 | 19:28.001 race | 19:47.001 race | +1.63% |
| Aidan McCormick | 2019 | 23:14.001 race | 23:42.001 race | +2.01% |
| Ben Owusu-Amo | 2022 | 21:54.001 race | 22:23.001 race | +2.21% |
| Andreas Bai | 2024 | 23:33.001 race | 24:12.001 race | +2.76% |
| Ryan Cannistraro | 2019 | 25:34.001 race | 26:17.001 race | +2.80% |
| Natalia Calvillo | 2022 | 22:44.001 race | 23:23.001 race | +2.86% |
| Charles Donahue | 2019 | 18:32.001 race | 19:04.001 race | +2.88% |
| Max Kesselheim | 2023 | 20:04.001 race | 20:39.003 races | +2.91% |
| Tyler Forg | 2019 | 20:17.001 race | 20:53.001 race | +2.96% |
| Jake Devries | 2023 | 20:50.001 race | 21:27.002 races | +2.96% |
| James Donahue | 2019 | 17:29.001 race | 18:01.001 race | +3.05% |
| Kate Wei | 2022 | 26:08.001 race | 26:58.001 race | +3.19% |
| Nathan Ma | 2024 | 24:27.001 race | 25:14.001 race | +3.20% |
| Eric Zhu | 2023 | 18:56.001 race | 19:33.004 races | +3.26% |
| Jaden Smith | 2023 | 19:08.001 race | 19:51.002 races | +3.75% |
| Luke Hogan | 2019 | 20:28.001 race | 21:15.001 race | +3.83% |
| Carter Bartel | 2022 | 17:44.001 race | 18:27.001 race | +4.04% |
| Tess Holland | 2021 | 26:16.001 race | 27:22.001 race | +4.19% |
| Christiaan Eikeboom | 2019 | 19:13.001 race | 20:03.001 race | +4.34% |
| Patrick Albers | 2022 | 17:28.001 race | 18:14.001 race | +4.39% |
| Justin Lee | 2022 | 19:57.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +4.51% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2023 | 18:49.001 race | 19:41.002 races | +4.61% |
| Noah Peters | 2022 | 22:20.001 race | 23:22.001 race | +4.63% |
| Sreetej Digumarthi | 2019 | 20:58.001 race | 21:57.001 race | +4.69% |
| Ford Legg | 2021 | 18:40.002 races | 19:33.001 race | +4.73% |
| Eric Archerman | 2023 | 19:05.001 race | 20:00.003 races | +4.80% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2021 | 22:33.002 races | 23:40.001 race | +4.95% |
| Ben Guenther | 2022 | 17:26.001 race | 18:18.001 race | +4.97% |
| Max Daniello | 2022 | 19:36.001 race | 20:37.001 race | +5.19% |
| Steven Silvers | 2023 | 18:56.001 race | 19:55.002 races | +5.19% |
| Charlie Zhang | 2024 | 20:57.001 race | 22:04.001 race | +5.33% |
| Sunehri Verma | 2022 | 27:04.001 race | 28:31.001 race | +5.36% |
| Annie Lopez | 2022 | 24:51.001 race | 26:15.001 race | +5.63% |
| Viola Shepard | 2024 | 26:41.001 race | 28:13.001 race | +5.75% |
| Sebastian Keleher | 2023 | 22:53.001 race | 24:12.002 races | +5.75% |
| John (Jake) Popeo | 2023 | 18:32.001 race | 19:36.003 races | +5.76% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2022 | 19:37.001 race | 20:45.001 race | +5.78% |
| Kitso Paulson | 2021 | 20:33.002 races | 21:45.001 race | +5.84% |
| Emilio Manz | 2022 | 19:51.001 race | 21:01.001 race | +5.88% |
| Nicholas Hebard | 2019 | 21:29.001 race | 22:45.001 race | +5.90% |
| Eric Zhou | 2022 | 19:54.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +5.95% |
| Michael Thomas | 2019 | 18:48.001 race | 19:56.001 race | +6.03% |
| Charlie Hall | 2022 | 17:33.001 race | 18:37.001 race | +6.08% |
| Eli Norden | 2024 | 22:21.001 race | 23:43.001 race | +6.11% |
| Violet Zhang | 2024 | 26:36.001 race | 28:14.001 race | +6.14% |
| Arnav Harve | 2022 | 18:22.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +6.17% |
| Josh Levine | 2022 | 22:37.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +6.19% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2023 | 25:41.001 race | 27:17.002 races | +6.23% |
| David Rome | 2021 | 21:23.002 races | 22:43.001 race | +6.24% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2021 | 21:55.002 races | 23:17.001 race | +6.24% |
| Alex Cheng | 2022 | 17:23.001 race | 18:31.001 race | +6.52% |
| Amory Forman | 2024 | 19:30.001 race | 20:48.001 race | +6.67% |
| Konstantin Lukin-Yelin | 2021 | 18:30.002 races | 19:44.001 race | +6.67% |
| Eric Diop | 2023 | 17:23.001 race | 18:33.004 races | +6.71% |
| Vivian Cain-Weingram | 2024 | 20:57.001 race | 22:22.001 race | +6.76% |
| Sam Soukas | 2022 | 19:29.001 race | 20:53.001 race | +7.19% |
| Charlotte Hayward | 2022 | 21:27.001 race | 23:00.001 race | +7.23% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2021 | 21:51.001 race | 23:26.001 race | +7.25% |
| Howard Huang | 2019 | 20:27.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +7.25% |
| Evan Schneider | 2023 | 21:40.001 race | 23:16.002 races | +7.38% |
| Shane McCauley | 2021 | 20:31.002 races | 22:04.001 race | +7.55% |
| Emilie Andrews | 2022 | 24:24.001 race | 26:15.001 race | +7.58% |
| Austin Reid | 2023 | 20:58.001 race | 22:34.002 races | +7.63% |
| David Hermanson | 2022 | 17:59.001 race | 19:22.001 race | +7.69% |
| Kajsa Harrington | 2022 | 24:03.001 race | 25:55.001 race | +7.76% |
| Scarlett Hawkins | 2024 | 19:02.001 race | 20:31.001 race | +7.79% |
| Abraham Tolkoff | 2019 | 18:51.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +7.87% |
| Om Paithankar | 2022 | 20:51.001 race | 22:30.001 race | +7.91% |
| Eliot Saad | 2024 | 18:29.001 race | 19:57.001 race | +7.94% |
| Will McLane | 2022 | 17:00.001 race | 18:21.001 race | +7.94% |
| Lucas Liu | 2021 | 20:18.002 races | 21:55.001 race | +7.96% |
| Jonathan Tillen | 2022 | 19:11.001 race | 20:43.001 race | +7.99% |
| Matthew Loose | 2022 | 18:56.001 race | 20:28.001 race | +8.10% |
| Keenan Billings | 2021 | 18:32.002 races | 20:06.001 race | +8.45% |
| Cate Devaney | 2023 | 22:37.001 race | 24:32.002 races | +8.47% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2024 | 17:38.001 race | 19:08.001 race | +8.51% |
| Lindsey Bennett | 2023 | 22:39.001 race | 24:35.002 races | +8.54% |
| Ethan Burack | 2022 | 21:04.001 race | 22:54.001 race | +8.70% |
| Idrissa Fall | 2024 | 21:01.001 race | 22:51.001 race | +8.72% |
| Colleen Leary | 2023 | 22:42.001 race | 24:41.001 race | +8.74% |
| Tyler Smith | 2024 | 18:50.001 race | 20:29.001 race | +8.76% |
| Liam Walsh | 2023 | 16:54.001 race | 18:23.004 races | +8.78% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2021 | 24:26.002 races | 26:35.001 race | +8.80% |
| Noah Douglas | 2022 | 16:28.001 race | 17:55.001 race | +8.81% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2024 | 16:50.001 race | 18:19.001 race | +8.81% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2024 | 16:40.001 race | 18:09.001 race | +8.90% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2023 | 21:15.001 race | 23:09.002 races | +8.94% |
| Ezra Klauber | 2023 | 16:22.001 race | 17:50.004 races | +8.96% |
| Babikir Saeed | 2024 | 17:59.001 race | 19:36.001 race | +8.99% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2024 | 20:55.001 race | 22:48.001 race | +9.00% |
| Grayson Lee | 2023 | 20:04.001 race | 21:53.001 race | +9.05% |
| Peilin Li | 2024 | 21:54.001 race | 23:53.001 race | +9.06% |
| Lia Gavin | 2022 | 22:24.001 race | 24:26.001 race | +9.08% |
| Tim Churchill | 2022 | 16:30.001 race | 18:00.001 race | +9.09% |
| Colin Anderson | 2022 | 18:47.001 race | 20:30.001 race | +9.14% |
| Will Grimes | 2022 | 18:44.001 race | 20:27.001 race | +9.16% |
| Jack Good | 2024 | 18:15.001 race | 19:56.001 race | +9.22% |
| Jerry Qin | 2022 | 18:29.001 race | 20:12.001 race | +9.29% |
| Michael Timmins | 2022 | 20:26.001 race | 22:20.001 race | +9.30% |
| Calvin Reid | 2023 | 19:08.001 race | 20:55.003 races | +9.32% |
| Riley Marth | 2024 | 18:01.001 race | 19:42.001 race | +9.34% |
| Diego Abadie | 2024 | 17:06.001 race | 18:42.001 race | +9.36% |
| Lauren Kim | 2024 | 27:44.001 race | 30:20.001 race | +9.38% |
| Leila Blake | 2024 | 21:16.001 race | 23:16.001 race | +9.40% |
| Alexa Adams | 2023 | 22:41.001 race | 24:49.002 races | +9.40% |
| Riley Gordon | 2022 | 23:41.001 race | 25:55.001 race | +9.43% |
| William Trautz | 2024 | 15:19.001 race | 16:46.001 race | +9.47% |
| Christian MacCallum | 2023 | 19:15.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +9.52% |
| Gabriel Klug | 2019 | 20:50.001 race | 22:50.001 race | +9.60% |
| Hannah Bernstein | 2021 | 20:46.002 races | 22:46.001 race | +9.63% |
| Walker Cox | 2024 | 19:01.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +9.64% |
| Aparajita Srivastava | 2021 | 25:27.002 races | 27:56.001 race | +9.76% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2023 | 25:32.001 race | 28:03.002 races | +9.86% |
| Elizabeth Nicholas | 2024 | 21:47.001 race | 23:56.001 race | +9.87% |
| Colin Bradley | 2023 | 19:07.001 race | 21:01.003 races | +9.94% |
| Gabe Cooper | 2024 | 18:45.001 race | 20:38.001 race | +10.04% |
| Richard Federico | 2023 | 17:02.001 race | 18:45.004 races | +10.08% |
| Alex Chen | 2024 | 20:10.001 race | 22:12.001 race | +10.08% |
| Ava Kocher | 2022 | 23:37.001 race | 26:00.001 race | +10.09% |
| Luke Hotra | 2022 | 19:38.001 race | 21:37.001 race | +10.10% |
| Brenna Thomas | 2022 | 22:45.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +10.11% |
| Zach Heaton | 2023 | 17:47.001 race | 19:35.004 races | +10.12% |
| Finley Long | 2024 | 18:47.001 race | 20:42.001 race | +10.20% |
| Clare Struzziery | 2022 | 21:57.001 race | 24:12.001 race | +10.25% |
| Maddie Gaynor | 2021 | 24:31.002 races | 27:02.001 race | +10.27% |
| Eita Fuse | 2024 | 16:41.001 race | 18:24.001 race | +10.29% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2024 | 19:08.001 race | 21:07.001 race | +10.37% |
| Christina Hall | 2022 | 26:11.001 race | 28:54.001 race | +10.38% |
| Mia Sung | 2022 | 23:48.001 race | 26:18.001 race | +10.50% |
| Justin Hildebrandt | 2024 | 21:31.001 race | 23:47.001 race | +10.53% |
| Maya Vernazza | 2022 | 22:05.001 race | 24:25.001 race | +10.57% |
| Noah Ditzion | 2024 | 23:24.001 race | 25:53.001 race | +10.61% |
| Cole Gaynor | 2021 | 18:49.002 races | 20:49.001 race | +10.63% |
| Javi Werner | 2019 | 17:38.001 race | 19:32.002 races | +10.78% |
| Sam Leviton | 2024 | 16:42.001 race | 18:30.001 race | +10.78% |
| Ella Berger | 2022 | 23:57.001 race | 26:32.001 race | +10.79% |
| Megan Corry | 2023 | 23:19.001 race | 25:50.002 races | +10.79% |
| Riya Jain | 2022 | 26:31.001 race | 29:23.001 race | +10.81% |
| Jackson Hurd | 2024 | 21:14.001 race | 23:32.001 race | +10.83% |
| Timothy Snail | 2024 | 17:20.001 race | 19:13.001 race | +10.87% |
| Ethan Xie | 2024 | 20:24.001 race | 22:37.001 race | +10.87% |
| Mara Dubois | 2022 | 24:19.001 race | 26:58.001 race | +10.90% |
| Ryan Noreke | 2023 | 19:31.001 race | 21:39.002 races | +10.93% |
| Sophie Majernik | 2022 | 22:02.001 race | 24:27.001 race | +10.97% |
| Lincoln Hyatt | 2023 | 17:55.001 race | 19:54.002 races | +11.07% |
| Lily Heaton | 2023 | 25:29.001 race | 28:21.001 race | +11.25% |
| Ben Nissenbaum | 2022 | 22:13.001 race | 24:44.001 race | +11.33% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2023 | 27:09.001 race | 30:16.002 races | +11.48% |
| Keenan Billings | 2024 | 16:45.001 race | 18:41.001 race | +11.54% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2024 | 18:51.001 race | 21:03.001 race | +11.67% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2022 | 19:19.001 race | 21:35.001 race | +11.73% |
| James Kerr | 2023 | 16:16.001 race | 18:11.004 races | +11.78% |
| Erin Green | 2023 | 25:24.001 race | 28:24.001 race | +11.81% |
| Harvey Rupp | 2019 | 20:39.001 race | 23:06.001 race | +11.86% |
| Thomas Xue | 2022 | 20:22.001 race | 22:47.001 race | +11.87% |
| Armando Walters | 2019 | 20:33.001 race | 23:00.002 races | +11.92% |
| Oliver Burstein | 2022 | 19:24.001 race | 21:43.001 race | +11.94% |
| Noah Avram | 2024 | 21:58.001 race | 24:36.001 race | +11.99% |
| Sophia Matherly | 2022 | 23:40.001 race | 26:31.001 race | +12.04% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2023 | 19:16.001 race | 21:39.002 races | +12.37% |
| Sebastian Colberg | 2024 | 18:51.001 race | 21:11.001 race | +12.38% |
| Rhett Curtis | 2024 | 22:07.001 race | 24:52.001 race | +12.43% |
| Andreu Beltran | 2024 | 17:08.001 race | 19:16.001 race | +12.45% |
| David Moon | 2024 | 21:25.001 race | 24:08.001 race | +12.68% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2023 | 21:25.001 race | 24:08.002 races | +12.68% |
| John Pena | 2024 | 19:39.001 race | 22:09.001 race | +12.72% |
| Theo Teng | 2019 | 21:12.001 race | 23:54.002 races | +12.74% |
| Nolan McKenna | 2019 | 18:11.001 race | 20:31.002 races | +12.83% |
| Chloe Catalano | 2023 | 25:27.001 race | 28:44.002 races | +12.90% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2024 | 17:25.001 race | 19:40.001 race | +12.92% |
| Johannes Eikeboom | 2024 | 19:56.001 race | 22:32.001 race | +13.04% |
| George Madison | 2019 | 17:01.001 race | 19:15.002 races | +13.12% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2023 | 22:35.001 race | 25:33.002 races | +13.14% |
| Lila Graves | 2022 | 26:49.001 race | 30:21.001 race | +13.18% |
| Will Cote | 2019 | 16:56.001 race | 19:11.002 races | +13.29% |
| Emma Edgar | 2022 | 25:08.001 race | 28:31.001 race | +13.46% |
| Maksim Roman | 2024 | 17:47.001 race | 20:12.001 race | +13.59% |
| Quinn Donovan | 2019 | 17:06.001 race | 19:27.002 races | +13.74% |
| Jeffrey Liu | 2022 | 22:45.001 race | 25:53.001 race | +13.77% |
| Andrew Gilmore | 2024 | 20:48.001 race | 23:40.001 race | +13.78% |
| Mark Henshon | 2019 | 17:05.001 race | 19:27.002 races | +13.85% |
| Cora Knoell | 2022 | 21:47.001 race | 24:51.001 race | +14.08% |
| Brendan Kilpatrick | 2024 | 21:46.001 race | 24:50.001 race | +14.09% |
| David Xiong | 2024 | 17:15.001 race | 19:41.001 race | +14.11% |
| Alex Yin | 2019 | 21:27.001 race | 24:29.002 races | +14.14% |
| Bear Brooks | 2022 | 16:17.001 race | 18:36.001 race | +14.23% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2022 | 19:32.001 race | 22:19.001 race | +14.25% |
| David Sullivan | 2019 | 18:13.001 race | 20:50.002 races | +14.36% |
| Akhilsai Damera | 2023 | 18:58.001 race | 21:43.003 races | +14.50% |
| Amelia Barlow | 2022 | 22:55.001 race | 26:18.001 race | +14.76% |
| John Brice | 2023 | 21:06.001 race | 24:15.002 races | +14.93% |
| Mason Peng | 2022 | 22:28.001 race | 25:50.001 race | +14.99% |
| John Harrington | 2019 | 18:54.001 race | 21:45.002 races | +15.08% |
| Amina Cifric | 2022 | 23:18.001 race | 26:49.001 race | +15.09% |
| Cameron Estrada | 2019 | 21:37.001 race | 24:53.002 races | +15.11% |
| Gianluca Foschi Walko | 2019 | 19:48.001 race | 22:49.001 race | +15.24% |
| Daniel Bittner | 2019 | 20:39.001 race | 23:52.001 race | +15.58% |
| Liam O'Connor | 2019 | 18:37.001 race | 21:32.002 races | +15.67% |
| Mathilde Senter | 2022 | 24:10.001 race | 28:01.001 race | +15.93% |
| Max Rochford | 2022 | 23:21.001 race | 27:05.001 race | +15.99% |
| Ryan Chang-Wu | 2024 | 21:26.001 race | 24:59.001 race | +16.56% |
| Peter Abenante | 2022 | 21:18.001 race | 24:50.001 race | +16.59% |
| Skylar Bedard | 2022 | 19:54.001 race | 23:13.001 race | +16.67% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2022 | 22:07.001 race | 25:52.001 race | +16.96% |
| David (Hershie) Liebowitz | 2019 | 24:24.001 race | 28:37.002 races | +17.28% |
| Katelyn Pereira | 2022 | 22:11.001 race | 26:02.001 race | +17.36% |
| Brian Zheng | 2022 | 19:05.001 race | 22:25.001 race | +17.47% |
| Noah Corso | 2024 | 19:33.001 race | 22:58.001 race | +17.48% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2023 | 25:22.001 race | 29:49.002 races | +17.54% |
| Zach Green | 2022 | 20:13.001 race | 23:50.001 race | +17.89% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2021 | 23:10.002 races | 27:33.001 race | +18.92% |
| Aditya Shrivastava | 2022 | 22:41.001 race | 27:11.001 race | +19.84% |
| Kevin Yao | 2022 | 20:06.001 race | 24:16.001 race | +20.73% |
| Grace Maloney | 2022 | 23:23.001 race | 28:16.001 race | +20.88% |
| Matthew Mariani | 2022 | 18:42.001 race | 23:41.001 race | +26.65% |