Pairwise course analysis
BB&N 5K Coursevs.Thayer 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Thayer 5K Course runs slower
+2.95%
Roughly 35.4 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
113
Deep evidence
Median difference
+1.92%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+2.95%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.19%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Thayer 5K Course fasterEvenThayer 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
+1.69% to +3.49%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | BB&N 5K Course | Thayer 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiera Furness | 2023 | 30:26.001 race | 25:36.001 race | -15.88% |
| Jonathan Tillen | 2024 | 19:43.001 race | 17:37.001 race | -10.65% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2023 | 20:35.001 race | 19:15.001 race | -6.48% |
| Eliza Hartnick | 2019 | 31:15.001 race | 29:23.001 race | -5.97% |
| Jake Devries | 2023 | 20:50.001 race | 20:00.001 race | -4.00% |
| Clare Struzziery | 2024 | 21:36.001 race | 21:01.001 race | -2.70% |
| Allison Park | 2024 | 24:15.001 race | 23:38.001 race | -2.54% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2023 | 25:32.001 race | 25:01.001 race | -2.02% |
| Michelle Chen | 2019 | 35:39.001 race | 35:04.001 race | -1.64% |
| Tony Yin | 2023 | 23:44.001 race | 23:23.001 race | -1.47% |
| Tomas Hernandez | 2024 | 20:03.001 race | 19:46.001 race | -1.41% |
| Kirsten Ting | 2019 | 33:53.001 race | 33:28.001 race | -1.23% |
| Nate Newmark | 2024 | 22:45.001 race | 22:30.001 race | -1.10% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2023 | 19:16.001 race | 19:04.001 race | -1.04% |
| Dylan Kovacs | 2024 | 27:18.001 race | 27:06.001 race | -0.73% |
| Abdirizak Abdulle | 2024 | 20:41.001 race | 20:36.001 race | -0.40% |
| Larissa Wolfberg | 2019 | 26:01.001 race | 25:55.001 race | -0.38% |
| Finn Zinger | 2024 | 22:40.001 race | 22:37.001 race | -0.22% |
| Leah Farb | 2024 | 23:50.001 race | 23:47.001 race | -0.21% |
| Roger Gao | 2024 | 24:01.001 race | 23:58.001 race | -0.21% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2023 | 18:49.001 race | 18:48.001 race | -0.09% |
| Justin Lee | 2024 | 19:09.001 race | 19:08.001 race | -0.09% |
| AJ Jay | 2024 | 20:05.001 race | 20:05.001 race | 0.00% |
| Emily Bunn | 2023 | 21:51.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +0.38% |
| Sofia O'Hagan | 2024 | 25:48.001 race | 25:55.001 race | +0.45% |
| John Brice | 2023 | 21:06.001 race | 21:12.001 race | +0.47% |
| Mia Sung | 2024 | 27:21.001 race | 27:29.001 race | +0.49% |
| Sebastian Keleher | 2023 | 22:53.001 race | 23:00.001 race | +0.51% |
| Evan Schneider | 2023 | 21:40.001 race | 21:47.001 race | +0.54% |
| Julia Santry | 2024 | 24:03.001 race | 24:11.001 race | +0.55% |
| Steven Silvers | 2023 | 18:56.001 race | 19:03.001 race | +0.62% |
| Olivia Golhar | 2024 | 21:34.001 race | 21:43.001 race | +0.70% |
| Clara Trautz | 2024 | 20:46.001 race | 20:55.001 race | +0.72% |
| Gaby Guzman | 2024 | 27:16.001 race | 27:28.001 race | +0.73% |
| Lindsey Bennett | 2023 | 22:39.001 race | 22:49.001 race | +0.74% |
| Phoebe Triant | 2024 | 21:35.001 race | 21:45.001 race | +0.77% |
| Blakeny Johnston | 2024 | 21:18.001 race | 21:29.001 race | +0.86% |
| Alexa Adams | 2023 | 22:41.001 race | 22:53.001 race | +0.88% |
| Samantha Cody | 2019 | 26:22.001 race | 26:38.001 race | +1.01% |
| Alex Cai | 2024 | 19:46.001 race | 19:58.001 race | +1.01% |
| Cate Devaney | 2023 | 22:37.001 race | 22:51.001 race | +1.03% |
| Charlie Gavin | 2023 | 17:43.002 races | 17:54.001 race | +1.03% |
| Oliver Burstein | 2024 | 21:21.001 race | 21:35.001 race | +1.09% |
| Vera Zatlyn-Weiner | 2024 | 20:42.001 race | 20:57.001 race | +1.21% |
| Jaden Smith | 2023 | 19:08.001 race | 19:22.001 race | +1.22% |
| Nahman Mack | 2024 | 17:23.001 race | 17:36.001 race | +1.25% |
| Colleen Leary | 2023 | 22:42.001 race | 23:00.001 race | +1.32% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2023 | 22:35.001 race | 22:53.001 race | +1.33% |
| Ryan Noreke | 2023 | 19:31.001 race | 19:47.001 race | +1.37% |
| Catherine Anderson | 2019 | 26:47.001 race | 27:10.001 race | +1.43% |
| Will Grace | 2024 | 17:28.001 race | 17:43.001 race | +1.43% |
| Ella Richards | 2023 | 25:40.001 race | 26:05.001 race | +1.62% |
| Megan Corry | 2023 | 23:19.001 race | 23:42.001 race | +1.64% |
| Lauren Peloquin | 2024 | 26:09.001 race | 26:36.001 race | +1.72% |
| Xavier Clemente | 2024 | 22:11.001 race | 22:35.001 race | +1.80% |
| Christian MacCallum | 2023 | 19:15.001 race | 19:37.001 race | +1.90% |
| Jeanna Shaw | 2019 | 24:21.001 race | 24:49.001 race | +1.92% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2023 | 21:15.001 race | 21:41.001 race | +2.04% |
| Nate Madden | 2024 | 19:35.001 race | 19:59.001 race | +2.04% |
| Tyler Case | 2024 | 22:27.001 race | 22:55.001 race | +2.08% |
| Constance Legrand | 2019 | 24:48.001 race | 25:19.001 race | +2.08% |
| Anray Sheng | 2024 | 21:27.001 race | 21:55.001 race | +2.18% |
| Anders Lewis | 2024 | 20:08.001 race | 20:36.001 race | +2.32% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2023 | 21:25.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +2.41% |
| Emilio Manz | 2024 | 19:48.001 race | 20:17.001 race | +2.44% |
| Anders Ulrich | 2024 | 19:07.001 race | 19:35.001 race | +2.44% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2023 | 27:09.001 race | 27:50.001 race | +2.52% |
| Michael You | 2024 | 18:09.001 race | 18:38.001 race | +2.66% |
| Kira Morales | 2024 | 21:42.001 race | 22:17.001 race | +2.69% |
| Emmett Chen | 2024 | 19:30.001 race | 20:03.001 race | +2.82% |
| Helena Struzziery | 2024 | 22:57.001 race | 23:36.001 race | +2.83% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2023 | 25:22.001 race | 26:06.001 race | +2.89% |
| Sunehri Verma | 2024 | 27:47.001 race | 28:37.001 race | +3.00% |
| Lily Heaton | 2023 | 25:29.001 race | 26:16.001 race | +3.07% |
| Jonas Wilderman | 2024 | 18:04.001 race | 18:38.001 race | +3.14% |
| Henry McLane | 2024 | 15:35.001 race | 16:05.001 race | +3.21% |
| Jasper Dabora | 2024 | 26:15.001 race | 27:06.001 race | +3.24% |
| James Fair | 2024 | 18:15.001 race | 18:51.001 race | +3.29% |
| Lexie Hoffmeister | 2024 | 22:29.001 race | 23:14.001 race | +3.34% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2023 | 25:41.001 race | 26:33.001 race | +3.37% |
| Derek Yin | 2024 | 27:14.001 race | 28:10.001 race | +3.43% |
| Chloe Catalano | 2023 | 25:27.001 race | 26:20.001 race | +3.47% |
| Elizabeth Strang | 2019 | 26:42.001 race | 27:38.001 race | +3.50% |
| Erin Green | 2023 | 25:24.001 race | 26:19.001 race | +3.61% |
| Buket Aktas | 2019 | 26:43.001 race | 27:43.001 race | +3.74% |
| Jaden Huang | 2024 | 18:35.001 race | 19:17.001 race | +3.77% |
| Brenna Thomas | 2024 | 23:13.001 race | 24:06.001 race | +3.80% |
| Christina Hall | 2024 | 27:16.001 race | 28:19.001 race | +3.85% |
| Cole Ogden | 2024 | 21:09.001 race | 21:58.001 race | +3.86% |
| Aydin Alsan | 2024 | 17:26.001 race | 18:08.001 race | +4.02% |
| Raquel Frankel | 2024 | 27:27.001 race | 28:38.001 race | +4.31% |
| Devin Reid | 2024 | 19:14.001 race | 20:04.001 race | +4.33% |
| Jayden Leung | 2024 | 19:27.001 race | 20:33.001 race | +5.66% |
| Emery Nordahl | 2024 | 20:07.001 race | 21:16.001 race | +5.72% |
| Noah Douglas | 2024 | 15:36.001 race | 16:30.001 race | +5.77% |
| Suha Choi | 2019 | 27:43.001 race | 29:26.001 race | +6.19% |
| Lily Walsh | 2019 | 24:00.001 race | 25:39.001 race | +6.88% |
| J. Wei | 2019 | 25:07.001 race | 27:24.001 race | +9.09% |
| Emily Taylor | 2019 | 23:20.001 race | 25:29.001 race | +9.21% |
| Padma Mynampaty | 2019 | 29:57.001 race | 32:46.001 race | +9.40% |
| Libby Waterfall | 2019 | 24:28.001 race | 26:48.001 race | +9.54% |
| Ingrid Yeung | 2019 | 24:04.001 race | 26:24.001 race | +9.70% |
| Helena Xie | 2019 | 23:46.001 race | 26:08.001 race | +9.96% |
| Isabella Murray | 2019 | 31:16.001 race | 34:35.001 race | +10.61% |
| Jaclyn Zatsiorsky | 2019 | 26:27.001 race | 29:25.001 race | +11.22% |
| Ashley Battiata | 2019 | 24:24.001 race | 27:10.001 race | +11.34% |
| Paula Hornbostel | 2019 | 25:03.001 race | 28:00.001 race | +11.78% |
| Jiayi Yu | 2019 | 27:50.001 race | 31:10.001 race | +11.98% |
| Madison Hoang | 2019 | 32:07.001 race | 35:59.001 race | +12.04% |
| Aitong (Ivy) Li | 2019 | 23:27.001 race | 26:25.001 race | +12.65% |
| Sunny Li | 2019 | 27:31.001 race | 31:11.001 race | +13.33% |
| Princess Alexander | 2019 | 24:53.001 race | 29:09.001 race | +17.15% |
| Charlie Poulin | 2019 | 27:38.001 race | 33:57.001 race | +22.86% |