Pairwise course analysis
Canterbury School 5Kvs.RL 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
RL 5K Course runs slower
+4.61%
Roughly 55.3 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
16
Developing evidence
Median difference
+2.91%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+4.61%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.60%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+1.81% to +5.35%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Canterbury School 5K | RL 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza Barker | 2022 | 27:26.001 race | 26:46.001 race | -2.43% |
| David Jiang | 2022 | 26:54.001 race | 26:35.001 race | -1.18% |
| Lauren Puglia | 2022 | 26:09.001 race | 26:05.001 race | -0.25% |
| Forrester Clark | 2022 | 18:31.001 race | 18:47.001 race | +1.44% |
| Zoe Wilmerding | 2022 | 23:27.001 race | 23:52.001 race | +1.78% |
| Peyton Dahmen | 2022 | 22:09.001 race | 22:34.001 race | +1.88% |
| Armaun Dehpanah | 2022 | 21:46.001 race | 22:15.001 race | +2.22% |
| Zebediah Stewart | 2022 | 20:01.001 race | 20:29.001 race | +2.33% |
| Adyson Duval | 2022 | 25:16.001 race | 26:09.001 race | +3.50% |
| Katalin (Kata) Clark | 2022 | 20:19.001 race | 21:18.001 race | +4.84% |
| Eben Dooling | 2022 | 22:32.001 race | 23:39.001 race | +4.96% |
| Quinn Mullaney | 2022 | 25:15.001 race | 26:32.001 race | +5.08% |
| Daniel Reyes | 2022 | 21:37.001 race | 22:57.001 race | +6.17% |
| Brandon Spector-Townsend | 2022 | 20:33.001 race | 22:10.001 race | +7.87% |
| Kamran Bradley | 2022 | 22:00.001 race | 24:10.001 race | +9.85% |
| Lorenzo Johnson | 2022 | 19:15.001 race | 21:09.001 race | +9.87% |