Pairwise course analysis
Governor's 5K Coursevs.Great Brook Farm 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Great Brook Farm 5K runs faster
-2.68%
Roughly 32.1 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
14
Limited evidence
Median difference
-0.91%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-2.68%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.05%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-3.57% to +1.48%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Governor's 5K Course | Great Brook Farm 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kinh Kieu | 2021 | 34:10.001 race | 30:00.001 race | -12.20% |
| Braeden Moitoso | 2021 | 20:09.001 race | 19:10.001 race | -4.88% |
| Bryant Huang | 2021 | 25:24.001 race | 24:16.001 race | -4.46% |
| Chen-An Lin | 2021 | 26:58.001 race | 25:46.001 race | -4.45% |
| Anthony Coston | 2021 | 24:45.001 race | 24:07.001 race | -2.56% |
| Nathalie Pierpont | 2021 | 24:58.001 race | 24:37.001 race | -1.40% |
| Nathalie Westpfahl | 2021 | 23:53.001 race | 23:34.001 race | -1.33% |
| Aidan Berger | 2021 | 20:00.001 race | 19:54.001 race | -0.50% |
| Matt Simon | 2021 | 21:32.001 race | 21:27.001 race | -0.39% |
| Audrey Marshman | 2021 | 25:11.001 race | 25:32.001 race | +1.39% |
| Brandon Christ | 2021 | 18:37.001 race | 18:59.001 race | +1.97% |
| Alexander Kirby | 2021 | 21:21.001 race | 22:23.001 race | +4.84% |
| Matthew Smith | 2021 | 20:35.001 race | 21:38.001 race | +5.10% |
| Joshua White | 2021 | 22:51.001 race | 24:03.001 race | +5.25% |