Pairwise course analysis

Governor's 5K Coursevs.NEPSTA Championship Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

NEPSTA Championship Course runs faster

-7.33%

Roughly 1:28 faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

18

Developing evidence

Median difference

-6.85%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-7.33%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.99%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

NEPSTA Championship Course fasterEvenNEPSTA Championship Course slower

Confidence interval

-8.67% to -6.34%

Scale shown

-10% to +10%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonGovernor's 5K CourseNEPSTA Championship CourseDifference
Henry Buckley-Jones202319:09.001 race16:42.001 race-12.79%
Davis Woolbert202320:35.001 race18:11.001 race-11.66%
Ethan Xie202323:04.001 race20:36.001 race-10.69%
Alexander Behn202320:20.001 race18:20.001 race-9.84%
Miles Sandoski202318:47.001 race17:05.001 race-9.05%
Jackson Pagan202320:41.001 race18:50.001 race-8.94%
William Trautz202317:50.001 race16:22.001 race-8.22%
Angus Harrison202320:00.001 race18:36.001 race-7.00%
William Achtmeyer202321:27.001 race19:57.001 race-6.99%
Nathaniel Voss202318:24.001 race17:10.001 race-6.70%
Carver Porter202320:22.001 race19:08.001 race-6.06%
Eita Fuse202318:32.001 race17:26.001 race-5.94%
Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo202321:41.001 race20:26.001 race-5.76%
Yamin Ibrahim202319:37.001 race18:35.001 race-5.27%
George Carroll202320:59.001 race19:56.001 race-5.00%
Maksim Roman202319:24.001 race18:26.001 race-4.98%
Fitz Courtney202318:45.001 race17:49.001 race-4.98%
Aaron Stanger202318:57.001 race18:03.001 race-4.75%