Pairwise course analysis
Governor's 5K Coursevs.St. Sebastian's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
St. Sebastian's 5K Course runs slower
+1.40%
Roughly 16.8 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
66
Strong evidence
Median difference
+0.04%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+1.40%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.13%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
St. Sebastian's 5K Course fasterEvenSt. Sebastian's 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-1.37% to +0.14%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Governor's 5K Course | St. Sebastian's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Hinman | 2019 | 20:09.001 race | 18:53.001 race | -6.29% |
| Sam Blank | 2022 | 23:13.001 race | 21:53.001 race | -5.74% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2023 | 19:09.001 race | 18:05.001 race | -5.57% |
| Henry Gennari | 2019 | 23:59.001 race | 22:39.001 race | -5.56% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2023 | 20:35.001 race | 19:30.001 race | -5.26% |
| Joseph Ryan | 2025 | 25:30.001 race | 24:11.001 race | -5.16% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2023 | 24:13.001 race | 23:02.001 race | -4.89% |
| Matthew Choumenkovitch | 2019 | 24:49.001 race | 23:37.001 race | -4.84% |
| Abner Machuca-Diaz | 2025 | 22:50.001 race | 21:45.001 race | -4.74% |
| Jack Kastner | 2023 | 22:29.001 race | 21:33.001 race | -4.15% |
| Cormac Anderson | 2025 | 22:58.001 race | 22:01.001 race | -4.14% |
| Chris Thompson | 2023 | 20:48.001 race | 19:58.001 race | -4.01% |
| Joseph Koh | 2025 | 20:37.001 race | 19:49.001 race | -3.88% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2022 | 22:05.001 race | 21:16.001 race | -3.70% |
| Bobby Ferguson | 2025 | 23:05.001 race | 22:14.001 race | -3.68% |
| Nate Bloomenthal | 2025 | 20:35.001 race | 19:57.001 race | -3.08% |
| Ryan Albertson | 2019 | 23:15.001 race | 22:37.001 race | -2.72% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2023 | 18:47.001 race | 18:17.001 race | -2.66% |
| George Carroll | 2023 | 20:59.001 race | 20:26.001 race | -2.62% |
| Andrew Young | 2022 | 21:44.001 race | 21:12.001 race | -2.45% |
| Jason Minicozzi | 2022 | 20:34.001 race | 20:05.001 race | -2.35% |
| Ian Schmidek | 2023 | 25:59.001 race | 25:30.001 race | -1.86% |
| Luis Sosa Espinal | 2023 | 22:24.001 race | 22:01.001 race | -1.71% |
| Rohan Ghatge | 2025 | 23:01.001 race | 22:39.001 race | -1.59% |
| Heng Leong | 2022 | 22:11.001 race | 21:51.001 race | -1.50% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2023 | 20:41.001 race | 20:23.001 race | -1.45% |
| Patrick McDonald | 2019 | 18:16.001 race | 18:01.001 race | -1.37% |
| Alessandro Barbiellini | 2019 | 22:57.001 race | 22:47.001 race | -0.73% |
| Jack Connors | 2023 | 18:02.001 race | 17:55.001 race | -0.65% |
| Mark Price | 2023 | 25:12.001 race | 25:03.001 race | -0.60% |
| Jack Halloran | 2025 | 18:25.001 race | 18:19.001 race | -0.54% |
| Eddie Zhang | 2023 | 21:54.001 race | 21:53.001 race | -0.08% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2025 | 18:28.001 race | 18:28.001 race | 0.00% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2022 | 22:19.001 race | 22:20.001 race | +0.07% |
| Justin Jang | 2022 | 20:21.001 race | 20:22.001 race | +0.08% |
| Alex Young | 2022 | 20:06.001 race | 20:07.001 race | +0.08% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2022 | 18:47.001 race | 18:48.001 race | +0.09% |
| Carver Porter | 2023 | 20:22.001 race | 20:24.001 race | +0.16% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2023 | 18:45.001 race | 18:48.001 race | +0.27% |
| Alexander Behn | 2023 | 20:20.001 race | 20:24.001 race | +0.33% |
| Jonathan Demosthene | 2023 | 21:09.001 race | 21:14.001 race | +0.39% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2023 | 18:24.001 race | 18:29.001 race | +0.45% |
| Abner Machuca Diaz | 2023 | 21:28.001 race | 21:34.001 race | +0.47% |
| Thomas Flatley | 2019 | 18:45.001 race | 18:52.001 race | +0.62% |
| Anthony Marcucci | 2025 | 23:12.001 race | 23:25.001 race | +0.93% |
| William Hansen | 2019 | 21:38.001 race | 21:51.001 race | +1.00% |
| Sebastian Culleton | 2023 | 18:00.001 race | 18:12.001 race | +1.11% |
| John Joyce | 2023 | 17:26.001 race | 17:38.001 race | +1.15% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2022 | 18:13.001 race | 18:27.001 race | +1.28% |
| Joseph Koh | 2023 | 20:18.001 race | 20:34.001 race | +1.31% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2023 | 18:57.001 race | 19:12.001 race | +1.32% |
| Tobias Jonas | 2023 | 24:40.001 race | 25:01.001 race | +1.42% |
| Alexander Wasynczuk | 2023 | 20:38.001 race | 21:00.001 race | +1.78% |
| Adrian Tan | 2023 | 28:37.001 race | 29:11.001 race | +1.98% |
| John Joyce | 2025 | 16:32.001 race | 16:54.001 race | +2.22% |
| Rhett Curtis | 2023 | 23:29.001 race | 24:01.001 race | +2.27% |
| Calvin Pagan | 2023 | 23:25.001 race | 23:58.001 race | +2.35% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2023 | 21:41.001 race | 22:12.001 race | +2.38% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2023 | 19:37.001 race | 20:06.001 race | +2.46% |
| Kevin Weldon | 2023 | 23:14.001 race | 23:56.001 race | +3.01% |
| Andrew Correia | 2022 | 21:38.001 race | 22:18.001 race | +3.08% |
| William Trautz | 2023 | 17:50.001 race | 18:24.001 race | +3.18% |
| Angus Harrison | 2023 | 20:00.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +4.25% |
| Maksim Roman | 2023 | 19:24.001 race | 20:15.001 race | +4.38% |
| Eita Fuse | 2023 | 18:32.001 race | 19:29.001 race | +5.13% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2023 | 21:27.001 race | 23:47.001 race | +10.88% |