Pairwise course analysis
Governor's 5K Coursevs.Thayer 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Thayer 5K Course runs faster
-4.40%
Roughly 52.8 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
106
Deep evidence
Median difference
-3.53%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-4.40%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+6.94%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Thayer 5K Course fasterEvenThayer 5K Course slower
Confidence interval
-4.90% to -2.97%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Governor's 5K Course | Thayer 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Catalano | 2024 | 32:12.001 race | 25:43.001 race | -20.13% |
| Connor Bragg | 2024 | 27:36.001 race | 22:51.001 race | -17.21% |
| Rileigh Murphy-Morris | 2022 | 25:57.001 race | 21:44.002 races | -16.25% |
| Amanda Gary | 2019 | 28:06.001 race | 24:10.001 race | -14.00% |
| Virginia Thompson | 2022 | 26:05.001 race | 22:34.001 race | -13.48% |
| R. Murphy | 2024 | 27:54.001 race | 24:14.001 race | -13.14% |
| Kiera Furness | 2024 | 32:12.001 race | 28:29.001 race | -11.54% |
| Madeline Pike | 2022 | 25:12.001 race | 22:18.001 race | -11.51% |
| Kylie Bogar | 2022 | 29:21.001 race | 26:01.001 race | -11.36% |
| Alexa Adams | 2024 | 25:35.001 race | 22:50.001 race | -10.75% |
| Conor Mannion | 2022 | 23:37.001 race | 21:26.001 race | -9.24% |
| Annabel McNamara | 2024 | 26:10.001 race | 23:48.001 race | -9.04% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2024 | 27:04.001 race | 24:44.001 race | -8.62% |
| Maddie Stearns | 2022 | 24:46.001 race | 22:39.001 race | -8.55% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2022 | 23:48.001 race | 21:46.001 race | -8.54% |
| Kaitie Donahue | 2024 | 26:57.001 race | 24:40.001 race | -8.47% |
| Tom Gaynor | 2022 | 20:40.001 race | 18:56.001 race | -8.39% |
| Alaina Millian | 2024 | 27:25.001 race | 25:10.001 race | -8.21% |
| Renee Martell | 2024 | 28:34.001 race | 26:14.001 race | -8.17% |
| Sophia Hansen | 2022 | 23:11.001 race | 21:21.001 race | -7.91% |
| Katie Wipf | 2022 | 23:14.001 race | 21:31.001 race | -7.39% |
| Colleen Leary | 2022 | 23:59.001 race | 22:13.001 race | -7.37% |
| Laruen McMahon | 2021 | 24:43.002 races | 22:54.001 race | -7.35% |
| Tyler Cornetta | 2019 | 24:29.001 race | 22:42.001 race | -7.28% |
| Erin Green | 2022 | 27:46.001 race | 25:45.001 race | -7.26% |
| Megan Corry | 2022 | 27:50.001 race | 25:52.001 race | -7.07% |
| Emily Bunn | 2022 | 23:13.001 race | 21:40.001 race | -6.68% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2021 | 17:57.001 race | 16:46.001 race | -6.59% |
| Calvin Smith | 2019 | 20:02.001 race | 18:45.001 race | -6.41% |
| Alexa Meekins | 2022 | 30:04.001 race | 28:12.001 race | -6.21% |
| Gabriel Simmons | 2021 | 22:55.001 race | 21:30.001 race | -6.18% |
| Michael Wu | 2019 | 24:49.001 race | 23:17.001 race | -6.18% |
| Breanna Kunkel | 2022 | 23:35.001 race | 22:10.001 race | -6.01% |
| Kevin Yao | 2021 | 26:50.004 races | 25:14.002 races | -5.96% |
| Alyssa McGuirl | 2022 | 30:05.001 race | 28:23.001 race | -5.65% |
| Max Meyerhardt | 2019 | 20:43.001 race | 19:35.001 race | -5.47% |
| KJ Irving | 2024 | 24:32.001 race | 23:12.001 race | -5.43% |
| Evan Schneider | 2022 | 22:22.001 race | 21:12.001 race | -5.22% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2024 | 18:47.001 race | 17:49.001 race | -5.15% |
| Cam Dailey | 2019 | 22:43.001 race | 21:33.001 race | -5.14% |
| Reuben Siegel | 2021 | 23:37.001 race | 22:27.001 race | -4.94% |
| Brendan Brosnan | 2022 | 21:01.001 race | 19:59.001 race | -4.92% |
| Brooke Hansen | 2022 | 22:45.001 race | 21:39.001 race | -4.84% |
| Brian Zheng | 2021 | 23:12.002 races | 22:05.001 race | -4.81% |
| Walt Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 24:04.001 race | 22:56.001 race | -4.71% |
| Theodore Dowd | 2024 | 19:40.001 race | 18:46.001 race | -4.58% |
| Stephen Warming | 2021 | 20:30.001 race | 19:34.001 race | -4.55% |
| Jameso Flaherty-Clapham | 2022 | 29:13.001 race | 27:55.001 race | -4.45% |
| Shreya Jain | 2019 | 29:03.001 race | 27:51.001 race | -4.13% |
| John Brice | 2022 | 21:48.001 race | 20:55.001 race | -4.05% |
| Joshua Rocha | 2019 | 21:54.001 race | 21:02.001 race | -3.96% |
| Caitlyn Hsu | 2024 | 26:01.001 race | 25:00.001 race | -3.91% |
| Robert Peirce | 2024 | 23:02.001 race | 22:13.001 race | -3.55% |
| Kenzie Murphy | 2024 | 22:47.001 race | 21:59.001 race | -3.51% |
| Evan Schneider | 2024 | 20:20.001 race | 19:38.001 race | -3.44% |
| Connor Keleher | 2024 | 23:57.001 race | 23:08.001 race | -3.41% |
| Aaron Stanger | 2021 | 19:09.001 race | 18:31.001 race | -3.31% |
| Samuel Lyons | 2019 | 20:51.001 race | 20:10.001 race | -3.28% |
| Luke Driscoll | 2024 | 20:19.001 race | 19:41.001 race | -3.12% |
| Eli Helzberg | 2019 | 23:04.001 race | 22:23.001 race | -2.96% |
| Bear Brooks | 2021 | 17:25.002 races | 16:58.001 race | -2.58% |
| William Trautz | 2021 | 18:14.001 race | 17:46.001 race | -2.56% |
| Cora Knoell | 2021 | 25:10.002 races | 24:33.001 race | -2.45% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2021 | 19:37.001 race | 19:10.001 race | -2.29% |
| Mark Ryan | 2019 | 18:01.001 race | 17:37.001 race | -2.22% |
| Cole Zaleski | 2019 | 21:41.001 race | 21:14.001 race | -2.08% |
| Alexa Adams | 2022 | 24:41.001 race | 24:16.001 race | -1.69% |
| Ezra Lee | 2021 | 19:33.001 race | 19:14.001 race | -1.62% |
| Howard Huang | 2021 | 22:41.001 race | 22:22.001 race | -1.40% |
| Dylan Crawford | 2024 | 19:53.001 race | 19:37.001 race | -1.34% |
| Steven Silvers | 2024 | 19:18.001 race | 19:03.001 race | -1.30% |
| Sophia Matherly | 2021 | 29:01.002 races | 28:39.001 race | -1.26% |
| Maya Sidhu | 2019 | 25:10.001 race | 24:52.001 race | -1.19% |
| Daniel Xie | 2021 | 22:52.001 race | 22:36.001 race | -1.17% |
| Bruin Brayshaw | 2021 | 23:36.001 race | 23:21.001 race | -1.06% |
| David Carter | 2021 | 20:29.001 race | 20:20.001 race | -0.73% |
| Grant Reagan-Loomis | 2019 | 22:45.001 race | 22:38.001 race | -0.51% |
| Maanasi Chintamani | 2019 | 26:34.001 race | 26:29.001 race | -0.31% |
| Jeremy Eaton | 2021 | 21:20.001 race | 21:17.001 race | -0.23% |
| Paris Liston | 2021 | 20:39.001 race | 20:37.001 race | -0.16% |
| Andrew Bittner | 2021 | 22:00.001 race | 21:58.001 race | -0.15% |
| Sawyer Helzberg | 2019 | 23:01.001 race | 22:59.001 race | -0.14% |
| Andrew Correia | 2019 | 23:09.001 race | 23:09.001 race | 0.00% |
| Jacqueline Thabit | 2021 | 26:53.002 races | 26:57.001 race | +0.25% |
| Oliver Carswell | 2019 | 23:09.001 race | 23:13.001 race | +0.29% |
| Rosie Qin | 2019 | 26:42.001 race | 26:49.001 race | +0.44% |
| Phoebe Lu | 2019 | 26:33.001 race | 26:42.001 race | +0.56% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2021 | 20:00.001 race | 20:10.001 race | +0.83% |
| Noah Naddaff-Slocum | 2019 | 21:17.001 race | 21:28.001 race | +0.86% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2021 | 22:30.002 races | 22:42.001 race | +0.89% |
| Duncan Kilbride | 2021 | 20:38.001 race | 20:53.001 race | +1.21% |
| Oliver Massey | 2024 | 20:57.001 race | 21:15.001 race | +1.43% |
| Amelia Stevens | 2019 | 24:50.001 race | 25:17.001 race | +1.81% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2021 | 24:33.002 races | 25:01.001 race | +1.90% |
| Elizabeth Gatto | 2019 | 26:59.001 race | 27:31.001 race | +1.98% |
| Megan Ding | 2019 | 25:22.001 race | 26:00.001 race | +2.50% |
| Carver Porter | 2021 | 21:40.001 race | 22:13.001 race | +2.54% |
| Davin Roy | 2021 | 24:19.001 race | 24:59.001 race | +2.74% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2021 | 20:28.002 races | 21:03.001 race | +2.85% |
| Michael Bobo | 2021 | 21:22.001 race | 22:01.001 race | +3.04% |
| Josie Silk | 2019 | 23:10.001 race | 23:56.001 race | +3.31% |
| Mia Peng | 2019 | 28:51.001 race | 29:57.001 race | +3.81% |
| Grace Luettgen | 2019 | 25:33.001 race | 26:32.001 race | +3.85% |
| Justine Lam | 2019 | 28:57.001 race | 30:35.001 race | +5.64% |
| Olivia Pasquale | 2021 | 29:36.001 race | 31:26.001 race | +6.19% |
| Aiden English | 2021 | 21:54.002 races | 23:16.001 race | +6.24% |