Pairwise course analysis
Governor's 5K Coursevs.WNH 5K
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
WNH 5K runs slower
+0.74%
Roughly 8.8 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
61
Strong evidence
Median difference
+3.10%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+0.74%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+4.83%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
WNH 5K fasterEvenWNH 5K slower
Confidence interval
+2.38% to +4.25%
Scale shown
-6% to +6%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Governor's 5K Course | WNH 5K | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Liu | 2021 | 26:14.001 race | 25:20.001 race | -3.43% |
| Tristan Parmentier | 2021 | 20:18.001 race | 19:52.001 race | -2.13% |
| Jason Zhu | 2021 | 27:24.002 races | 26:53.001 race | -1.89% |
| Laruen McMahon | 2021 | 24:03.002 races | 23:37.001 race | -1.80% |
| Mei-Ling Bielagus | 2021 | 23:26.001 race | 23:11.001 race | -1.07% |
| Jacqueline Thabit | 2021 | 25:02.002 races | 24:47.001 race | -1.00% |
| Jace Lee | 2021 | 24:59.001 race | 24:45.001 race | -0.93% |
| Shawna Liu | 2021 | 25:45.001 race | 25:40.001 race | -0.32% |
| Jasper Hawk | 2021 | 22:42.001 race | 22:38.001 race | -0.29% |
| Andy Jiang | 2021 | 24:47.002 races | 24:43.001 race | -0.27% |
| Beckett Dubovik | 2021 | 22:41.001 race | 22:38.001 race | -0.22% |
| Lakshmi Bogelli | 2021 | 30:38.001 race | 30:36.001 race | -0.11% |
| John Wallace | 2021 | 23:13.001 race | 23:16.001 race | +0.22% |
| Peter Abenante | 2021 | 22:58.002 races | 23:01.001 race | +0.22% |
| Nicholas Reimer | 2021 | 28:17.002 races | 28:21.001 race | +0.24% |
| Flynn Coyne | 2021 | 25:23.001 race | 25:31.001 race | +0.53% |
| Victoria Liu | 2021 | 33:03.001 race | 33:23.001 race | +1.01% |
| Sam Modur | 2021 | 22:43.001 race | 23:01.001 race | +1.32% |
| Vinh Do | 2021 | 22:59.001 race | 23:19.001 race | +1.45% |
| Bradley Weldon | 2021 | 20:27.001 race | 20:46.001 race | +1.55% |
| Hannah Bernstein | 2021 | 21:35.001 race | 21:56.001 race | +1.62% |
| Brian Zheng | 2021 | 21:02.002 races | 21:23.001 race | +1.66% |
| Thompson Zhou | 2021 | 22:11.001 race | 22:36.001 race | +1.88% |
| Sophia Matherly | 2021 | 27:06.002 races | 27:37.001 race | +1.91% |
| Olivia Crisafi | 2021 | 23:07.002 races | 23:37.001 race | +2.16% |
| Ford Legg | 2021 | 18:15.001 race | 18:40.001 race | +2.28% |
| Joseph Huang | 2021 | 22:05.001 race | 22:37.001 race | +2.42% |
| Naomi Hammerschlag | 2021 | 22:11.001 race | 22:46.001 race | +2.63% |
| Aleah Ghiasuddin | 2021 | 21:45.002 races | 22:21.001 race | +2.76% |
| Victor Xu | 2021 | 21:33.001 race | 22:13.001 race | +3.09% |
| Douglas Zhang | 2021 | 22:35.001 race | 23:17.001 race | +3.10% |
| Nicolas Huaco | 2021 | 18:23.001 race | 19:05.001 race | +3.81% |
| Juan José Torres Lara | 2021 | 19:06.001 race | 19:50.001 race | +3.84% |
| Sebastian Southworth | 2021 | 23:09.001 race | 24:05.001 race | +4.03% |
| Teddy Hwang | 2021 | 28:08.001 race | 29:17.001 race | +4.09% |
| Sam Poulin | 2021 | 18:42.001 race | 19:30.001 race | +4.28% |
| Bear Brooks | 2021 | 16:53.002 races | 17:39.001 race | +4.54% |
| Benzo Zhou | 2021 | 20:04.002 races | 21:01.001 race | +4.73% |
| Mikayla Higgins | 2021 | 25:28.001 race | 26:41.001 race | +4.78% |
| Shane McCauley | 2021 | 21:21.001 race | 22:23.001 race | +4.84% |
| Cole Gaynor | 2021 | 19:56.001 race | 20:56.001 race | +5.02% |
| Sylvia Brennan | 2021 | 22:13.001 race | 23:20.001 race | +5.03% |
| Aiden English | 2021 | 21:20.002 races | 22:26.001 race | +5.16% |
| Kathryn Martin | 2021 | 25:07.001 race | 26:27.001 race | +5.31% |
| Ellie Gable | 2021 | 23:06.001 race | 24:20.001 race | +5.34% |
| Erin Crisafi | 2021 | 23:15.002 races | 24:30.001 race | +5.38% |
| Lucas Liu | 2021 | 20:59.001 race | 22:08.001 race | +5.48% |
| Ken Suzuki | 2021 | 19:44.001 race | 20:51.001 race | +5.66% |
| Cora Knoell | 2021 | 23:35.002 races | 24:57.001 race | +5.80% |
| Aparajita Srivastava | 2021 | 25:30.001 race | 26:59.001 race | +5.82% |
| Maddie Gaynor | 2021 | 24:53.001 race | 26:21.001 race | +5.89% |
| Cameron Gonzalez | 2021 | 17:48.001 race | 18:53.001 race | +6.09% |
| Keenan Billings | 2021 | 18:45.001 race | 19:56.001 race | +6.31% |
| Evi Robb | 2021 | 23:44.001 race | 25:22.001 race | +6.88% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2021 | 24:46.001 race | 26:29.001 race | +6.93% |
| Alana Kramer-Gomez | 2021 | 22:18.001 race | 23:55.001 race | +7.25% |
| Kitso Paulson | 2021 | 20:31.001 race | 22:03.001 race | +7.47% |
| Joshua Curhan | 2021 | 21:25.001 race | 23:07.001 race | +7.94% |
| Danielle Brennan | 2021 | 22:58.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +8.35% |
| Gabrielle Martin | 2021 | 25:04.001 race | 27:23.001 race | +9.24% |
| Kevin Yao | 2021 | 23:15.004 races | 28:22.002 races | +22.01% |