Pairwise course analysis
Highland Park Championship Coursevs.Middlesex 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Middlesex 5K Course runs slower
+5.05%
Roughly 1:01 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
14
Limited evidence
Median difference
+9.51%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+5.05%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+13.78%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+6.24% to +16.94%
Scale shown
-18% to +18%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Highland Park Championship Course | Middlesex 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Colangelo | 2023 | 17:44.001 race | 17:52.001 race | +0.75% |
| Anthony Coston | 2023 | 22:07.001 race | 22:24.001 race | +1.28% |
| Matthew Smith | 2023 | 21:56.001 race | 22:21.001 race | +1.90% |
| Lucas Miller | 2023 | 18:18.001 race | 18:53.001 race | +3.19% |
| Peter Gnazzo | 2023 | 23:17.001 race | 24:15.001 race | +4.15% |
| Meri Rainford | 2023 | 22:02.001 race | 23:46.001 race | +7.87% |
| Quentin DeFreitas | 2023 | 22:08.001 race | 24:00.001 race | +8.43% |
| Nicole Fallon | 2023 | 25:28.001 race | 28:10.001 race | +10.60% |
| Myles McCusker | 2023 | 21:07.001 race | 23:28.001 race | +11.13% |
| Joshua White | 2023 | 22:30.001 race | 25:42.001 race | +14.22% |
| Caleb Stokes | 2023 | 24:56.001 race | 29:38.001 race | +18.85% |
| Sanjay Ravindran | 2023 | 22:43.001 race | 27:15.001 race | +19.96% |
| George Yerid | 2023 | 25:53.001 race | 33:25.001 race | +29.10% |
| Rinto Nakazawa | 2023 | 22:50.001 race | 30:53.001 race | +35.26% |