Pairwise course analysis

LA 5K Coursevs.NMH Championship Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

NMH Championship Course runs faster

-2.19%

Roughly 26.2 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

Developing evidence

Median difference

-3.08%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

-2.19%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+2.11%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

NMH Championship Course fasterEvenNMH Championship Course slower

Confidence interval

-4.22% to -2.16%

Scale shown

-6% to +6%

Course context

The two courses

Baseline course

LA 5K Course

5,000 meters

Compared course

NMH Championship Course

5,000 meters

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

Runner	Season	LA 5K Course	NMH Championship Course	Difference
Joshua Bergers	2019	17:53.001 race	16:45.001 race	-6.34%
Mateo MacRi	2019	20:19.001 race	19:03.001 race	-6.23%
Ben Pestana	2019	22:02.001 race	20:56.001 race	-4.99%
Will Ryckman	2019	21:59.001 race	20:55.001 race	-4.85%
Ben Croft	2019	19:52.001 race	18:58.001 race	-4.53%
Austin Hunt	2019	20:40.001 race	19:51.001 race	-3.95%
Jack Griffin	2019	19:29.001 race	18:51.001 race	-3.25%
Ben Bundy	2019	20:49.001 race	20:09.001 race	-3.20%
Kartik Donepudi	2019	22:02.001 race	21:23.001 race	-2.95%
Tony Wei	2019	23:02.001 race	22:22.001 race	-2.89%
Bennett Jones	2019	20:36.001 race	20:02.001 race	-2.75%
Will Osborne	2019	20:38.001 race	20:04.001 race	-2.75%
Nick Sparrow	2019	19:12.001 race	18:47.001 race	-2.17%
James Lammert	2019	18:45.001 race	18:32.001 race	-1.16%
Nick Haugen	2019	18:22.001 race	18:11.001 race	-1.00%
Blake Gattuso	2019	18:33.001 race	18:58.001 race	+2.25%