Pairwise course analysis
Middlesex 5K Coursevs.NMH Championship Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
NMH Championship Course runs faster
-1.09%
Roughly 13.1 seconds faster for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
19
Developing evidence
Median difference
+0.54%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
-1.09%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+2.72%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
-0.38% to +1.34%
Scale shown
-5% to +5%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | Middlesex 5K Course | NMH Championship Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macy Lindberg | 2019 | 26:08.001 race | 25:14.001 race | -3.44% |
| Alex Janower | 2019 | 25:31.001 race | 25:02.001 race | -1.89% |
| Devon Tyrie | 2019 | 24:36.001 race | 24:09.001 race | -1.83% |
| Lindsay Saunders | 2019 | 25:51.001 race | 25:27.001 race | -1.55% |
| Caroline Finnerty | 2019 | 23:23.001 race | 23:08.001 race | -1.07% |
| Emily Orscheln | 2019 | 21:29.001 race | 21:24.001 race | -0.39% |
| Claire Mao | 2019 | 24:15.001 race | 24:11.001 race | -0.27% |
| Anya Cheng | 2019 | 21:30.001 race | 21:27.001 race | -0.23% |
| Sophia Lowry | 2019 | 25:28.001 race | 25:28.001 race | 0.00% |
| Mari Capone | 2019 | 24:45.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +0.54% |
| Katie Armstrong | 2019 | 24:50.001 race | 25:03.001 race | +0.87% |
| Jane Saltzman | 2019 | 24:33.001 race | 24:53.001 race | +1.36% |
| Sophie Majernik | 2019 | 24:31.001 race | 24:56.001 race | +1.70% |
| Celia Cheng | 2019 | 20:42.001 race | 21:04.001 race | +1.77% |
| Grace Hayward | 2019 | 20:38.001 race | 21:05.001 race | +2.18% |
| Kajsa Harrington | 2019 | 23:24.001 race | 23:59.001 race | +2.49% |
| Lily Roche Vanoot | 2019 | 24:18.001 race | 24:55.001 race | +2.54% |
| Ella Brown | 2019 | 24:52.001 race | 25:41.001 race | +3.28% |
| Molly Epker | 2019 | 21:49.001 race | 22:32.001 race | +3.28% |