Pairwise course analysis

Milton Standard 5Kvs.NMH Championship Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

NMH Championship Course runs slower

+1.52%

Roughly 18.3 seconds slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

44

Strong evidence

Median difference

+1.18%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+1.52%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+2.87%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

NMH Championship Course fasterEvenNMH Championship Course slower

Confidence interval

+0.59% to +2.53%

Scale shown

-5% to +5%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonMilton Standard 5KNMH Championship CourseDifference
Gianluca Foschi Walko201921:42.001 race21:00.001 race-3.23%
Gabriel Klug201921:50.001 race21:13.001 race-2.82%
Victor Xu201921:25.001 race20:50.001 race-2.72%
Charles Mullaney201920:33.001 race20:01.001 race-2.60%
John Weldon201919:22.001 race19:03.001 race-1.64%
Alex Rodriguez201920:40.001 race20:20.001 race-1.61%
John Curtin201920:53.001 race20:33.001 race-1.60%
Thomas Strong201920:30.001 race20:12.001 race-1.46%
Evan Zhang201921:03.001 race20:50.001 race-1.03%
Charles Donahue201918:41.001 race18:31.001 race-0.89%
Daniel Bittner201921:05.001 race20:59.001 race-0.47%
Seb Park201920:57.001 race20:54.001 race-0.24%
Aidan McGaugh201918:00.001 race18:02.001 race+0.19%
Samantha Cody201924:18.001 race24:22.001 race+0.27%
Nicholas Hebard201921:58.001 race22:05.001 race+0.53%
Sreetej Digumarthi201920:22.001 race20:29.001 race+0.57%
Harvey Rupp201920:53.001 race21:01.001 race+0.64%
Ryan Wei201918:22.002 races18:30.001 race+0.73%
James Donahue201916:31.001 race16:40.001 race+0.91%
Margo Becker201920:13.001 race20:25.001 race+0.99%
Larissa Wolfberg201926:36.001 race26:52.001 race+1.00%
Max Litvak201918:33.002 races18:45.001 race+1.08%
Julia Torrey201921:57.001 race22:14.001 race+1.29%
Natalie Williamson201922:01.001 race22:19.001 race+1.36%
Jehan Boer201919:01.002 races19:17.001 race+1.40%
Zach Neri201919:08.002 races19:25.001 race+1.48%
Aston Chan201919:27.002 races19:49.001 race+1.89%
Abraham Tolkoff201919:15.001 race19:38.001 race+1.99%
Catherine Anderson201925:45.001 race26:17.001 race+2.07%
Howard Huang201919:59.001 race20:26.001 race+2.25%
Christiaan Eikeboom201918:35.001 race19:01.001 race+2.33%
Charlotte Torrey201927:37.001 race28:18.001 race+2.47%
Jack Sullivan201919:33.002 races20:03.001 race+2.56%
Yaman Habip201919:57.001 race20:28.001 race+2.59%
Tyler Forg201920:07.001 race20:39.001 race+2.65%
Buket Aktas201925:24.001 race26:08.001 race+2.89%
Tara O'Malley201922:41.001 race23:29.001 race+3.53%
Aj Strang201916:33.002 races17:10.001 race+3.73%
Evita Thadhani201921:55.001 race22:52.001 race+4.33%
Elizabeth Strang201925:03.001 race26:10.001 race+4.46%
Constance Legrand201924:41.001 race26:01.001 race+5.40%
Christian Westphal201919:35.001 race21:11.001 race+8.17%
Emma Zuccotti201926:57.001 race29:59.001 race+11.26%
Pedro Mateo201918:46.002 races21:24.001 race+14.03%