Pairwise course analysis

NEPSTA Championship Coursevs.Governor's 5K Course

Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.

Model verdict

Governor's 5K Course runs slower

+7.90%

Roughly 1:35 slower for a 20:00 runner

Paired observations

18

Developing evidence

Median difference

+7.35%

Middle runner-season comparison

Overall estimate

+7.90%

Network-adjusted course estimate

Middle 50% range

+3.99%

Observed variation (IQR)

Direction and magnitude

Relative course speed

Governor's 5K Course fasterEvenGovernor's 5K Course slower

Confidence interval

+6.77% to +9.49%

Scale shown

-10% to +10%

Underlying runner comparisons

Same-season evidence

Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.

RunnerSeasonNEPSTA Championship CourseGovernor's 5K CourseDifference
Aaron Stanger202318:03.001 race18:57.001 race+4.99%
Fitz Courtney202317:49.001 race18:45.001 race+5.24%
Maksim Roman202318:26.001 race19:24.001 race+5.24%
George Carroll202319:56.001 race20:59.001 race+5.27%
Yamin Ibrahim202318:35.001 race19:37.001 race+5.56%
Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo202320:26.001 race21:41.001 race+6.12%
Eita Fuse202317:26.001 race18:32.001 race+6.31%
Carver Porter202319:08.001 race20:22.001 race+6.45%
Nathaniel Voss202317:10.001 race18:24.001 race+7.18%
William Achtmeyer202319:57.001 race21:27.001 race+7.52%
Angus Harrison202318:36.001 race20:00.001 race+7.53%
William Trautz202316:22.001 race17:50.001 race+8.96%
Jackson Pagan202318:50.001 race20:41.001 race+9.82%
Miles Sandoski202317:05.001 race18:47.001 race+9.95%
Alexander Behn202318:20.001 race20:20.001 race+10.91%
Ethan Xie202320:36.001 race23:04.001 race+11.97%
Davis Woolbert202318:11.001 race20:35.001 race+13.20%
Henry Buckley-Jones202316:42.001 race19:09.001 race+14.67%