Pairwise course analysis
NEPSTA Championship Coursevs.Governor's 5K Course
Based on runners who competed on both courses during the same season. Positive values mean the second course ran slower; negative values mean it ran faster.
Model verdict
Governor's 5K Course runs slower
+7.90%
Roughly 1:35 slower for a 20:00 runner
Paired observations
18
Developing evidence
Median difference
+7.35%
Middle runner-season comparison
Overall estimate
+7.90%
Network-adjusted course estimate
Middle 50% range
+3.99%
Observed variation (IQR)
Direction and magnitude
Relative course speed
Confidence interval
+6.77% to +9.49%
Scale shown
-10% to +10%
Course context
The two courses
Underlying runner comparisons
Same-season evidence
Each row represents one runner-season with valid results on both courses. Median performances reduce the effect of one unusually good or poor race. JV and varsity results are included.
| Runner | Season | NEPSTA Championship Course | Governor's 5K Course | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stanger | 2023 | 18:03.001 race | 18:57.001 race | +4.99% |
| Fitz Courtney | 2023 | 17:49.001 race | 18:45.001 race | +5.24% |
| Maksim Roman | 2023 | 18:26.001 race | 19:24.001 race | +5.24% |
| George Carroll | 2023 | 19:56.001 race | 20:59.001 race | +5.27% |
| Yamin Ibrahim | 2023 | 18:35.001 race | 19:37.001 race | +5.56% |
| Juan-Pablo Fernandez Del Castillo | 2023 | 20:26.001 race | 21:41.001 race | +6.12% |
| Eita Fuse | 2023 | 17:26.001 race | 18:32.001 race | +6.31% |
| Carver Porter | 2023 | 19:08.001 race | 20:22.001 race | +6.45% |
| Nathaniel Voss | 2023 | 17:10.001 race | 18:24.001 race | +7.18% |
| William Achtmeyer | 2023 | 19:57.001 race | 21:27.001 race | +7.52% |
| Angus Harrison | 2023 | 18:36.001 race | 20:00.001 race | +7.53% |
| William Trautz | 2023 | 16:22.001 race | 17:50.001 race | +8.96% |
| Jackson Pagan | 2023 | 18:50.001 race | 20:41.001 race | +9.82% |
| Miles Sandoski | 2023 | 17:05.001 race | 18:47.001 race | +9.95% |
| Alexander Behn | 2023 | 18:20.001 race | 20:20.001 race | +10.91% |
| Ethan Xie | 2023 | 20:36.001 race | 23:04.001 race | +11.97% |
| Davis Woolbert | 2023 | 18:11.001 race | 20:35.001 race | +13.20% |
| Henry Buckley-Jones | 2023 | 16:42.001 race | 19:09.001 race | +14.67% |